FiveThirtyEight Politics

Election Day was a moment of truth for pollsters. After high-profile misses in 2016 and 2020, and with a public that has become less trusting of polling, 2024 had the potential to be a make-or-break year for the polls. Two weeks later, pollsters are, on the whole, breathing sighs of relief. Polls were less error-prone this year than in 2016 and 2020. By one measure, state-level polling was the most accurate it’s been in at least 25 years. But that’s not the whole story. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, we evaluate how the polls did, covering the good, the bad and the statistically insignificant. Hold on to your priors. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

We are beginning to get a clearer view of what a second Trump administration might look like. President-elect Donald Trump is announcing his cabinet picks, the size of Republicans' majority in Congress is coming into focus, and this has all led to predictions about what will and won’t happen in a second Trump administration. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, we turn to predictions markets and polling to assess the expectations that consumers, Wall Street traders, online bettors and everyday Americans have for Trump's second term. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Latino voters made a big jump to the right this election cycle. While the numbers aren’t final, AP Votecast reports an 8-point shift and Edison exit polls indicate more than a 14-point swing. Carlos Odio, co-founder of Equis Research, joins us on the podcast to unpack why Latino voters shifted right. He discusses the importance of issues like the economy and immigration, Trump’s appeal and how Latino voters have emerged as one of the nation’s most prominent swing groups. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Since Election Day, there’s been no shortage of hot takes explaining what happened and what it all means. Have Democrats lost the working class? Does President-elect Donald Trump have an unprecedentedly powerful mandate? Were the polls wrong? On this episode of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew dives into these questions and others, determining which ones are more fact than fiction. They also check in on the status of the House and Senate and discuss how many downballot Democrats managed to overperform compared to Vice President Kamala Harris. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

In this late-night, election-night edition of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew reacts to the results showing Donald Trump winning a second presidential term. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

At long last, Election Day is upon us. In this final pre-results episode, the crew shares a guide for what to expect on election night — from the first poll closures in Indiana, to the last poll closures in Alaska. They set expectations for how long the vote may take to tally and which counties to keep an eye on. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Polls were coming in hot and heavy over the weekend! In fact, 164 surveys were entered into the 538 database since Friday. In this Election Day eve episode of the 538 Politics podcast, Galen Druke speaks with senior researcher Mary Radcliffe and New York Times polling editor Ruth Igielnik about what we are seeing in those final polls. They discuss the famed Iowa Poll from Ann Selzer, which showed a rosy picture for Harris, and the battleground polling from the New York Times, which showed results that frustrate some of the trends we've come to expect this cycle. They also share some final thoughts on the election in the run up to the big day. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

It’s not just election season; it’s spooky season, too. In this Halloween installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew opens up the mailbag and answers listeners’ questions. Does favorability matter? Can bad weather affect turnout? And what would you do with an election crystal ball? Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Looking back on the 2020 election, the time between Election Day and Inauguration Day stands out as one of the most fraught and uncertain in recent American history. Will 2024 follow a similar path? In this episode of the 538 Politics podcast, Galen talks with Larry Norden, vice president of the Elections and Government Program at the Brennan Center, to provide a clearer picture of what we might expect after Election Day. They discuss when results could be expected, the types of misinformation that may circulate after the votes are cast, and why this election is seeing more litigation than any before it. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Last week, John Kelly, former President Donald Trump’s longest-serving chief of staff, said Trump fit the definition of a “fascist.” Democrats have seized on the comment, using it to underline Trump’s anti-democratic tendencies in these final days before Election Day. On this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew discusses how much voters care about democracy. And they look at a new poll that might shed light on the behavior of a new group of swing voters: young men. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

We are awash in data. As Election Day draws near, and new polls continue to pile up, our information overload will only intensify. So today on the 538 Politics podcast, we’re simplifying. We asked 11 very smart people just one question: What is the most valuable data point you’re watching to understand this election? These are their answers. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

For decades, Republicans were thought of as the country club set, while Democrats were the party of the working class. But increasingly, education has become a larger dividing line in American politics than economic status. This trend has seen college-educated voters move toward the Democratic Party and non-college-educated voters shift toward Republicans. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, Galen speaks with Matt Grossmann and David Hopkins, authors of "Polarized by Degrees: How the Diploma Divide and the Culture War Transformed American Politics." They explore how this educational divide is reshaping not just electoral outcomes, but the way each party approaches governance and policy. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

With Election Day just two weeks away, Republicans and Democrats are zeroing in on undecided voters. But the profile of the typical swing voter has changed. Move over, soccer moms. Say hello to … podcast bros? In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew looks at who the undecided voters are in this election. They also examine what appears to be a surprisingly competitive Senate race in ruby-red Nebraska. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

We talk plenty about the presidential race on the 538 Politics podcast, but of course, that is not the only thing on the ballot this November. Americans will cast their votes in races for the U.S. Senate and House, as well as dozens of ballot initiatives. In this installment of the podcast, we’re going on a road trip across the country to cover as many noteworthy downballot races as possible. We start in the 538 podcast studio in New York state, where House Democrats are hoping for a better outcome than their lackluster 2022 performance, and we end in Alaska. Grab your favorite snacks and get in! Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

With three weeks until Election Day, the 538 crew analyzes the state of what remains an extremely close presidential race. They also wade into the (very nerdy) debate over “weighting by recalled vote” that is roiling the polling community. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

For those in swing states, political ads are an inescapable part of life. But if you haven’t experienced the blitz firsthand, this episode of the 538 Politics podcast offers a glimpse into the barrage of campaign messages flooding our screens. Erika Franklin Fowler, director of the Wesleyan Media Project and professor of government at Wesleyan University, joins the podcast to break down the wave of ads hitting TVs, phones and browsers this election season. We explore whether Donald Trump or Kamala Harris has the upper hand and the topics dominating both national and downballot races. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

There is officially less than a month until Election Day. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, we consider what it would mean for the Electoral College map if the polls are correct in suggesting a racial and generational realignment. We also look at how views of the conflict in the Middle East have evolved in the year since the Oct. 7 Hamas terrorist attack. And, with new information about former President Donald Trump's attempt to overturn the 2020 election, whether his behavior surrounding the last election is shaping Americans' willingness to vote for him this time. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The crew reacts to the first and only vice-presidential debate between Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz and Ohio Sen. JD Vance in this late-night podcast. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

There's a lot going on in the world as we head into the final stretch of the 2024 election: a devastating hurricane, a growing war in the Middle East, multiple high profile scandals and an upcoming VP debate. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew asks whether any of these big stories are changing the subject of the campaign. They also look at how former President Trump and Vice President Harris are appealing to voters on some of the issues voters say are most important to them: the economy, immigration and abortion. Both Harris and Trump recently gave major economic speeches, Harris talked tough on immigration during a visit to the Southern border and Trump tried to allay concerns about his stance on abortion. But are they changing voters' perceptions? Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

We are in the frantic final weeks of the presidential campaign, which means Americans are obsessing over polling data more than usual. At 538, we cover this stuff year-round. So today on the show, we’re going back to the fundamentals. It doesn’t matter whether you’re a seasoned political hack or a bright-eyed newcomer: Everyone can benefit from our 10 Essentials Of Following Polls. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

As early voting kicks off in states across the country, the crew dives into an intensifying election season on this week’s installment of the 538 Politics podcast. They discuss whether early voting data can offer clues about November's outcome, analyze conflicting polls from key battleground states and examine the potential for a shift in the GOP’s Electoral College advantage. Plus, the team previews 538’s new Senate polling averages, focusing on the races that could determine control of the chamber. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Earlier this year, it seemed like the long-standing pattern of Black voters as steadfast Democrats was shifting, with a record-high percentage choosing former President Donald Trump in survey after survey. However, Vice President Kamala Harris's candidacy has sparked new enthusiasm among Black voters, boosting both engagement and her popularity. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, Galen examines these shifts with Chryl Laird, a professor of government and politics at the University of Maryland, and Kiana Cox, a senior researcher at the Pew Research Center, exploring the evolving political landscape and what Harris's run means for Black voter dynamics. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The U.S. Secret Service thwarted another apparent assassination attempt on former President Donald Trump over the weekend. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast Galen speaks with 538's Mary Radcliffe and The New York Times's Ruth Igielnik about how Americans view political violence. They also look at whether presidential election polls have shifted in response to last week's debate and discuss a recent Gallup analysis showing a yawning gender gap among young Americans. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The crew reacts to the first presidential debate between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump in this late night podcast. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

As an extremely close presidential campaign heads into the homestretch, economic news abounds. The jobs report released last week fell short of expectations, and the Federal Reserve appears ready to cut interest rates later this month. Will any of it matter? Or have Americans generally made up their minds about this economy? Plus, the crew previews Tuesday night’s presidential debate between Vice President Kamala Harris and former president Donald Trump, and they test their knowledge of historic debate moments. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Election Day is exactly two months away, meaning the final stretch of the presidential campaign is upon us. On Tuesday’s show, we assessed the current state of the race and how we got here. Today, we look ahead to the knowns and unknowns that could shake up the race in the coming weeks. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Labor Day is behind us and the conventional final stretch of the 2024 presidential campaign is here. There will be a rush of advertising, debates, more urgent attention paid to jobs reports, and October surprises. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, we look at where we are in the campaign and how we got here. In the second episode this week, we'll look at what to expect over the coming two months. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

This month both Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump released a slate of economic proposals in an attempt to gain the upper hand on the issue most important to voters. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, Galen speaks with Jeanna Smialek from The New York Times about the current state of the economy, voter perceptions of it and how the candidates’ proposals might shape both of those factors. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Just as the Democratic National Convention wrapped up, independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. dropped out of the 2024 race. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew tries to parse the effect that both events could have on the presidential race. They also look to Washington state's primary for an indication of how the House popular vote might play out this fall. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

In this late-night installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew reacts to the final night of the Democratic National Convention. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

In this late-night installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew reacts to the third night of the Democratic National Convention. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The crew reacts to night two of the Democratic National Convention. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The Democratic National Convention is upon us. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew discusses what to expect from the Democrats' weeklong pitch to voters. They also consider how a shorter general election timeline changes the dynamics of the race and how Vice President Kamala Harris's coalition is different from President Joe Biden's. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

One of the most promising electoral trends for Republicans during the Trump era has been a shift among Latino voters toward Republicans. The eight percentage point swing from Clinton in 2016 to Trump in 2020 represented the largest shift of any racial or ethnic group in either direction. And the erosion of support for Democrats didn’t stop there. In a poll of Latino voters in battleground states from the research group Equis in May, Biden was leading Trump among Latinos by only 5 percentage points. But Biden is no longer in the race, so do any of these trends still apply? In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, Galen Druke speaks with co-founder of Equis Research Carlos Odio about the new trends among Latino voters now that Harris is at the top of the ticket. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The contours of the Harris-Trump race are coming further into focus. Vice President Kamala Harris just wrapped up a weeklong tour of the battleground states with her newly minted running mate and former President Donald Trump has been weighing in on all matter of topics on social media and in a lengthy press conference. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, Galen speaks with senior elections analyst Nathaniel Rakich and New York Times polling editor Ruth Igielnik about the latest polling of the race, perceptions of the candidates and why some on the right are now taking issue with the polls. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Vice President Kamala Harris has picked a running mate. On this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew reacts to Harris’ selection of Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz. Will the gun-owning, football-coaching Midwesterner help Democrats’ chances in November? Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

On Friday, Vice President Kamala Harris secured enough delegate votes in the DNC virtual roll call to become the nominee and the announcement of her running mate is imminent. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew looks at how the contours of the presidential race have changed in the two weeks since Harris became the expected nominee. In our newly relaunched polling averages, Harris has a slim lead nationally and across the northern battleground states. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

How much do you respect people who hold different political views from you? On today’s podcast, Galen speaks with Jeff Spinner-Halev and Elizabeth Theiss-Morse, political scientists and authors of the book “Respect and Loathing in American Democracy.” They conducted one of the first empirical studies of respect in American politics, exploring how modern partisans overwhelmingly struggle to respect their political enemies. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew drafts potential running mates for expected Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris. Who will the veep choose for veep? Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

In the span of just two days, Vice President Kamala Harris consolidated support within the Democratic Party and is well on her way to securing the Democratic nomination for president. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, Galen speaks with Mary Radcliffe and Geoffrey Skelley about what has and hasn’t changed in the newly reshaped 2024 presidential race. Harris won’t have the same challenges President Joe Biden faced when it came to perceptions of his age, and already it appears some young voters and voters of color have swung in her direction. But, similar to Biden, voters largely view Harris as more liberal than they’d like on policy. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

In this weekend installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew reacts to President Joe Biden dropping out of the 2024 race. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

On the final night of the Republican National Convention, Donald Trump accepted the Republican nomination and spoke publicly for the first time since his attempted assassination. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

In this late-night installment of the 538 Politics podcast, senior elections analyst Nathaniel Rakich and New York Times polling editor Ruth Igielnik join Galen to help make sense of the third night of the Republican National Convention. Plus: How should we interpret polls that show a majority of Democrats want President Joe Biden to step aside? Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

In this late-night installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew reacts to the first two days of the Republican National Convention. They also discuss the latest developments in President Joe Biden’s efforts to stay atop the Democratic ticket. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

In this bonus installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew discusses former president Donald Trump’s choice of running mate: Ohio senator J.D. Vance. The “Hillbilly Elegy” author is unique among past running mates for his lack of political experience — and for his beard. What kind of running mate might he be? And will it matter? Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew reacts to the assassination attempt against former President Donald Trump. They discuss the impact on the country and community and also look at public opinion data on political violence. They also look at historical examples of such violence and track how lawmakers are reacting today. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The purgatory continues. The number of lawmakers saying President Joe Biden should not run for reelection continues to tick up, while Biden’s answer — that he is staying in the race — remains the same. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, we look at data on which lawmakers are calling on Biden to step aside and who is continuing to support him. The RNC also released its proposed platform this week and we use a good or bad use of polling example to better understand whether former President Donald Trump’s (and Biden's) policies are popular. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

As the Senate returns to Washington for the first time since President Joe Biden’s disastrous debate performance, the president appears to be digging in his heels. In a letter to Democratic lawmakers sent Monday morning, Biden was adamant that he is staying in the presidential race. But it does not seem like the interested parties are taking Biden’s insistence as the final word on the issue. With just six weeks until the Democratic National Convention, how does this all end? And following landmark elections in Britain and France, we travel across the pond for an international edition of “good or bad use of polling.” Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

President Joe Biden, in an exclusive interview with ABC News anchor George Stephanopoulos that aired Friday night, acknowledged last week's debate was a "bad episode" but pushed back strongly against broader questions about his age and mental fitness. Biden's sit-down with ABC News was his first television interview since the June 27 debate. Hear the interview now, in its entirety, on ABC News' "Start Here" podcast: Apple Podcasts (http://bit.ly/3VmuAnm), Spotify (http://bit.ly/3j947fm), Amazon Music (http://bit.ly/3FGMkDT), or wherever you listen. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Happy Fourth of July! To celebrate our independence from Great Britain, the 538 Politics podcast is actually turning its attention to the United Kingdom's upcoming election. The U.K. is holding its first national election in four and a half years on July 4 and the polling suggests the Labour Party will make historic gains, booting Conservatives from power for the first time in 14 years. To get a sense of the forces behind the dramatic shift since 2019, two longtime friends of the podcast weigh in. Helen Thompson is a professor of political economy at Cambridge University and host of the "These Times" podcast. David Runciman is a professor of politics at Cambridge and host of the podcast "Past Present Future." Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The ground has started to shift beneath President Joe Biden's feet. Between Tuesday and Wednesday, multiple Democratic lawmakers raised questions about his viability as a candidate in 2024 and weighed in on who might replace him should he step aside. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, Galen Druke speaks with Senior Elections Analyst Geoffrey Skelley about the latest data on how voters are reacting to Biden's debate performance and what could happen next. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Since Thursday, the only story in American politics has been President Joe Biden's poor debate performance and what on earth Democrats are going to do about it. That was until today, when the Supreme Court ruled that American presidents have legal immunity for official acts. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, Galen Druke speaks with Jessica Roth, a law professor and former federal prosecutor, about the details of the Supreme Court's ruling. Then 538's Nathaniel Rakich and Tia Yang discuss the continued fallout from the presidential debate. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Galen reacts to the first 2024 presidential debate between President Biden and former President Donald Trump with senior elections analyst Nathaniel Rakich and New York Times polling editor Ruth Igielnik. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

This Thursday, President Biden and former President Donald Trump will go head-to-head in the earliest presidential debate ever. It is also the first contest between a president and former president in over a century and the first debate not run by the Commission on Presidential Debates since 1988. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew discusses whether historical expectations for presidential debates will apply in this unique situation. They also dissect some questionable uses of polling and preview a couple of high-profile primary races in New York and Colorado. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

There are more people voting in 2024 than ever before. This year, elections are taking place in at least 64 countries, as well as the European Union, totaling almost half of the world’s population. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, Galen sits down with Richard Wike, director of Pew’s Global Attitudes Research, and Matthias Matthijs, senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, to talk about whether voters are behaving similarly across the globe. One of the biggest trends they discuss: a deep sense of discontent with the people in power. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Last week we got significant news in two key issue areas that might shape how voters are thinking this fall: the economy and abortion legality. First, on Wednesday, the latest consumer price index data showed inflation cooling more than expected. Then, on Thursday, the Supreme Court ruled unanimously to uphold access to the abortion medication mifepristone by mail. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, Galen speaks with Senior Researcher Mary Radcliffe and Senior Elections Analyst Nathaniel Rakich about how voters are are thinking about the issues of the economy and abortion access in 2024 and how that will, in turn, affect their votes. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Last month, a bipartisan group of senators unveiled a roadmap for artificial intelligence policy, proposing $32 billion in funding to support AI research. The plan has raised numerous questions about whether and how the government intends to regulate the rapidly evolving tech industry, especially in areas related to copyright and privacy. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, Galen speaks with Gregory Allen, Director of the Wadhwani Center for AI and Advanced Technologies, about the politics of AI regulation. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The 2024 presidential election forecast is live. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, Galen sits down with director of data analytics G. Elliott Morris to talk about the even odds between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump. While Trump leads in the polls nationally and in the battleground states, the fundamentals favor Biden, resulting in an extremely close call between the two. Elliott and Galen discuss the sources of uncertainty in the forecast and what we might expect between now and Election Day. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

This installment of the 538 Politics podcast comes to you from the nation's capital, where Galen is joined in-studio by senior elections analyst Nathaniel Rakich and friend of the podcast, New York Times polling editor Ruth Igielnik. They talk about the latest polling since former president Donald Trump's guilty verdict in his Manhattan hush-money trial and President Joe Biden's decision to issue an executive order restricting asylum at the southern border. They also play a game of historical election trivia, drawing parallels from past elections to today. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

It's been four days since former President Donald Trump’s guilty verdict in the Manhattan criminal case, and the early indication from the polls is that there has been a small shift away from Trump in head-to-head polling with President Joe Biden. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, we talk about the latest data and whether we expect that shift to endure. We are also now officially on Supreme Court decision watch, with cases surrounding Jan. 6, the Second Amendment and abortion medication regulations yet to be decided. To prepare for those coming opinions, we play a game of “Guess What Americans Think: Supreme Court Edition.” Do Americans approve of the current court? And do they think it will deliver an unbiased decision on Trump’s presidential immunity case? Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

On Thursday, a Manhattan jury found former President Donald Trump guilty of all 34 felony counts of falsifying business records in connection with hush money payments to Stormy Daniels. In this 538 Politics reaction podcast, Galen speaks with former federal prosecutor Jessica Roth about the legal implications of the jury's finding. Then 538's Nathaniel Rakich joins the podcast to discuss the possible political implications of the guilty verdict. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Closing arguments have wrapped up in former President Donald Trump’s first criminal trial, where he is being accused of falsifying business records in connection to a hush money payment made to adult film actor Stormy Daniels during his 2016 presidential campaign. This marks the beginning of the end of the first criminal prosecution of a former American president, and the verdict could affect his future career in politics. In the latest installment of the 538 Politics podcast, Galen talks with Jessica Roth, a law professor and former federal prosecutor, to discuss the trial. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

It’s been a newsy week for elections here at home and across the pond. On Wednesday, in her first public appearance since dropping out of the Republican primary, former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley said that she is going to vote for former President Donald Trump this fall. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, we ask whether her endorsement actually matters to voters. We also indulge in some British politics, with the announcement that the U.K. will hold general elections on July 4. The electoral picture for the Conservative Party is currently abysmal and they have six weeks to try to change it. And we check in on lessons from the downballot primaries that played out in Georgia and Oregon. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

This is the third installment of the 538 Politics podcast mini-series, “Campaign Throwback.” Across three episodes, we're taking a look back at campaign tropes from past elections such as, “it’s the economy, stupid,” or “soccer moms” or that question about which candidate you’d rather share a beer with. We’ll ask where those tropes came from, whether they were actually true at the time and if they still hold up today. In our third installment: "the beer question." After the 2000 and 2004 elections, political observers remarked that Republican George W. Bush defeated his Democratic opponents in part because he was the candidate who voters would rather "have a beer with." The phrase quickly became a cliche for evaluating a candidate's likability or relatability. But is it really how voters choose their presidents? Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

It’s no secret that we are headed toward a presidential election that many Americans said they didn’t want. Somewhere in the range of 20 percent of Americans have an unfavorable view of both former President Donald Trump and President Joe Biden, and if ratings are any indication, a lot of folks seem to be tuning campaign news out. So what does this portend for turnout? We’ve been in an era of high-turnout elections since 2016, but will fatigue or disdain keep people home this fall? In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew debates what kind of turnout we should expect and why it matters. They also discuss why Biden and Trump decided to go forward with two earlier-than-usual debates. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Concerns about democracy are central to the 2024 election. Late last year, Gallup recorded a record low number of Americans who said they are satisfied with the way democracy is working. And in the latest polling from The New York Times/Siena College, 14 percent of voters said the economic and political system needs to be torn down entirely, while 55 percent said it needs major changes. To better understand how Americans are thinking about democracy heading into the election, 538 teamed up with PerryUndem, a nonpartisan research firm, to conduct focus groups with voters. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, we hear from those voters. We also speak with Gretchen Helmke of Bright Line Watch, which conducts regular polling of experts and Americans on the potential threats to democracy. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

This is the second installment of the 538 Politics podcast mini-series, “Campaign Throwback.” Across three episodes, we're taking a look back at campaign tropes from past elections such as, “it’s the economy, stupid,” or “soccer moms” or that question about which candidate you’d rather share a beer with. We’ll ask where those tropes came from, whether they were actually true at the time and if they still hold up today. In our second installment: "soccer moms." In 1992, Bill Clinton won the presidential election in what was called the "year of the woman" after a record number of women ran for office and won. As the 1996 election took shape, gender politics were still at the forefront of campaign coverage. As Clinton’s popularity was growing and Dole was lagging in the early polls, the idea took hold that “soccer moms” might either save Dole’s chances or ensure that Clinton made it over the edge. But when the election was all said and done, was that conventional wisdom correct? Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Three months ago, as the presidential primaries were getting underway, President Joe Biden was trailing former President Donald Trump in the polls nationally and in battleground states, and concerns about his age were coming to the fore. The optimistic view for Biden was that once the presidential primaries were over, and it became clear that the choice was a 2020 rematch, the polls would move in his direction. But the polls have changed little. In fact, a new set of battleground polls from The New York Times/Siena College shows Biden trailing in all but one of the battleground states, with a lead for Trump as high as 12 points in Nevada. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew asks why the end of the primaries, weeks of Biden campaigning and millions spent on advertising have changed the polls little. They also preview Tuesday's primaries in Maryland and West Virginia, in particular a very competitive Democratic Senate primary in Maryland. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Six months out, how does the conventional wisdom about the 2024 election compare with how we are thinking about the numbers here at 538? Are election watchers thinking in a clear-eyed way about an election that will undoubtedly produce a lot of emotion and narratives? Unfortunately we don’t have a conventional wisdom thermometer in the office, so in this installment of the 538 Politics podcast we put that wisdom to the test with a game of “Buy, Sell, Hold.” We look at where the betting markets place the likelihood of everything from former President Donald Trump picking South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem as his running mate to Democrats winning a Senate race in Ohio, and decide whether the odds are appropriately priced. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

This is the first installment of the 538 Politics podcast mini-series, “Campaign Throwback.” Across three episodes, we're taking a look back at campaign tropes from past elections such as, “it’s the economy, stupid,” or “soccer moms” or that question about which candidate you’d rather share a beer with. We’ll ask where those tropes came from, whether they were actually true at the time and if they still hold up today. Our first installment: “It’s the economy, stupid.” It's a trope that dates back to Bill Clinton's 1992 presidential campaign. Clinton's chief strategist at the time, James Carville, had three main messages for his staff to remember: 1) Change vs. more of the same 2) The economy, stupid, and 3) Don't forget about healthcare. The second message was memorialized in a 1993 documentary about the Clinton campaign called "The War Room," and has taken on a life of its own in the field of election analysis. But is it accurate? https://surfshark.deals/FIVE38 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

College graduation season is getting underway, with a spotlight on campus protests over the war in Gaza. Some universities have canceled commencement events after local police were called in to numerous campuses to disband encampments and make arrests. All of this is focusing attention on the youth vote and how these scenes could shape Americans’ votes this fall. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, we dig into it. We also ask whether a new poll from the Robert F. Kennedy Jr. campaign is a good or bad use of polling. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

For much of Joe Biden’s presidency, political observers have puzzled over a disconnect between economic indicators and consumer sentiment. Unemployment is low, growth has been persistent and inflation is receding. Yet, the vibes aren’t great. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, we hear from undecided voters who participated in a focus group with PerryUndem and 538's Senior Politics Reporter Monica Potts, which focused on feelings about the economy. Later in the show, Galen speaks with 538 researcher and editor Cooper Burton about an algorithm 538 built to group House members into caucuses based on how they vote. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Former president Donald Trump’s legal saga reached two major milestones last week. In Manhattan, former National Enquirer publisher David Pecker testified about a “catch and kill” scheme that prosecutors say was meant to help Trump win the 2016 presidential election. Meanwhile, on Thursday, the Supreme Court heard oral arguments on whether presidential immunity protected Trump from prosecution in the federal case related to Jan. 6. The court’s conservative majority appeared sympathetic to at least some of the Trump team’s claims, raising the likelihood that any trial will not begin until after the November election. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, law professor Jessica Roth joins Galen to discuss the latest developments and preview what comes next. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The 538 presidential general election polling averages are officially live! That means no more poll-by-poll whiplash; for a sense of the state of the race nationally and in the battleground states, head to abcnews.com/538. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, Galen speaks with Director of Data Analytics G. Elliott Morris about the main takeaways from the averages and what kinds of data they consider. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

After months of conflict over whether or how to aid American allies abroad, the House passed a slate of bills providing funding for Ukraine, Israel, Gazan humanitarian assistance and Taiwan. Each bill won a clear bipartisan majority, but a slim majority of Republicans opposed Ukraine aid. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, Galen speaks with Rachael Bade, Geoffrey Skelley and Kaleigh Rogers about why this happened now and whether it spells doom for House Speaker Mike Johnson. They also preview primary election day in one of the most pivotal states this fall: Pennsylvania. And they mark Earth Day with an installment of "Guess What Americans Think," on the topic of climate change. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The jury selection process is still underway in former President Donald Trump's Manhattan criminal trial. In order to get on the jury, Manhattanites responded to a questionnaire with 42 questions ranging from whether they belong to QAnon or Antifa to what podcasts they listen to. The attorneys on both sides scrutinized their social media posts, asked them about their opinions of Trump, and had the opportunity to ask they be removed from consideration. This is all with the goal of impaneling an unbiased jury. It’s one of the most important parts of the process and also gets at the heart of a lot of what we talk about on the 538 Politics podcast. Based on a person’s own biography and demography, how do they feel about the former president and his criminal prosecution? In this installment of the podcast, Galen speaks with law professors Jessica Roth and Valerie Hans about the challenges of jury selection and what lack of bias we can expect from jurors in such a unique trial. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Monday marked the start of the first-ever criminal trial of a former president. The case — one of potentially four trials facing former President Donald Trump — revolves around alleged hush money payments made to Stormy Daniels to try to conceal damaging information during the 2016 election. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew looks at the political stakes of the case and how they compare to Trump's other legal liability. They also discuss how Republicans are positioning themselves on Arizona's unpopular 1864-era abortion ban and debate whether the latest campaign fundraising data actually says anything about the competitiveness of the presidential candidates. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

In the 2020 election, young voters were key to President Joe Biden’s victory. Biden won voters age 18 to 29 by more than 20 points, and the turnout rate among young voters was the highest it has been in decades. But recent polls show Biden slipping among voters under 30. The upshot spells danger for Democrats: According to 538's Swing-O-Matic, if young voters shifted toward former President Donald Trump this fall by just 5 points and everything else remained the same, Trump would win. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, Galen discusses young voters’ role in the 2024 election with John Della Volpe, the director of polling at the Harvard Kennedy School Institute of Politics, and Lakshya Jain, partner at the election modeling website Split-Ticket.org. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

On this solar eclipse day installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew tests their polling knowledge on the rare celestial event with a special edition of “Guess What Americans Think.” They also preview 538’s new Swing-O-Matic, a tool that lets you model demographic changes in the 2024 election and see their resulting electoral impacts. And in our latest installment of the 2024 VP draft, the crew takes a guess at who could be former President Donald Trump’s pick for the position. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Americans are becoming less religious and two new surveys out just last week punctuate just how quickly that’s happening. According to the Public Religion Research Institute, 26 percent of Americans now consider themselves unaffiliated with any religion. That’s up from 21 percent a decade ago and just 6 percent in the early '90s. According to Gallup, the number of Americans who attend religious services weekly or nearly every week has fallen from 42 percent in 2000 to 30 percent now. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, Galen speaks with a roundtable of experts on religion and society about why the decline has happened and what it portends for American communities, networks and politics. Joining the podcast are Melissa Deckman, CEO of the Public Religion Research Institute; Ryan Burge, Professor of Political Science at Eastern Illinois University and a Baptist Pastor; and Daniel Cox, Director of the Survey Center on American Life. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, Galen and the crew talk about air travel and how Americans feel about flying in a game of “Guess What Americans Think.” They also weigh if the U.S. Census Bureau’s new way of collecting data on race and ethnicity is a “good or bad use of polling.” Later in the episode, they pivot to discuss the Supreme Court's hearing on restrictions surrounding the abortion medication mifepristone, and explore the challenges third-party candidates face in getting on the ballot. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

A handful of recent polls and election results indicate that American politics may be undergoing a racial realignment, with voters of color challenging traditional partisan alliances. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, Galen talks about these shifting dynamics with John Burn-Murdoch, chief data reporter for the Financial Times, and Chryl Laird, government and politics professor at the University of Maryland. They explore why voters of color might be shifting right and what it could mean for Democrats. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Is the presidential election undergoing a vibe shift? At the beginning of the month, former President Donald Trump was performing 10 percentage points better than President Joe Biden in net approval rating. Today that’s fallen to a 4-point advantage. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew assesses what's changed. They also ask why so many representatives in the House are resigning earlier on in their careers and they take a look at a new poll showing Republican Larry Hogan leading in the Maryland Senate race by double digits. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Last week, the House of Representatives passed a bipartisan bill that would ban TikTok unless its owner, the Chinese company ByteDance, sells its stake in the app. This decision has ignited a national debate about TikTok and the effects of social media. So, in true 538 fashion, we’re reintroducing a segment we like to call ‘Debate Club’ to discuss the issue. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, Senior Elections Analyst Geoffrey Skelley, Podcast Intern Jala Everett, and Senior Editor and Senior Elections Analyst Nathaniel Rakich engage in a spirited debate. They'll defend their arguments on whether to ban TikTok, maintain the status quo or even consider banning social media altogether. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The presidential candidates are trying to crowd us out of the polling analysis business with their own takes on the polls! In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew assesses whether President Joe Biden's dismissal of polls because of declining response rates is fair. They also reexamine a viral poll from late last year that suggested 20 percent of young Americans think the Holocaust is a myth. It turned out to likely be bogus. And they preview Tuesday's primary in Ohio that will determine which Republican runs against Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

After Tuesday’s primaries, President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump have mathematically clinched their parties’ nominations. And now, it’s off to the races. Over the past week, Biden has made campaign stops in Pennsylvania, Georgia, New Hampshire, Michigan and Wisconsin. Trump was also in Georgia last weekend and he’ll be in Ohio on Saturday. These kinds of campaign stops are a cornerstone of presidential campaigns and we can expect a lot more of them between now and November. There’s only one problem: According to political scientist Chris Devine, they don’t actually work. At least, not all that well and not in the ways you’d expect. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, Devine talks about his recently published book called, “I’m Here to Ask for Your Vote: How Presidential Campaign Visits Influence Voters." Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The general election has begun in earnest and in this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew assesses how the country is feeling about it with a game of “Guess What Americans Think.” What percentage of Americans think the country is on the right track? Or that their preferred candidate will win? They also ask whether a poll suggesting that Gen Z voters are paying more attention to viral TikToks than the Alabama Supreme Court ruling on in vitro fertilization is a “good or bad use of polling.” -- Sponsor Message: Secure your privacy with Surfshark! Enter coupon code FIVE38 for an extra 3 months free at https://surfshark.deals/FIVE38 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

In this late night installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew reacts to President Biden's State of the Union speech and Alabama Sen. Katie Britt's rebuttal. Both put top 2024 campaign issue front and center. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

In a late-night podcast, the crew reacts to the Super Tuesday results, including a win by former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley in Vermont and a win by entrepreneur Jason Palmer in American Samoa. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Super Tuesday is upon us. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew previews what we can expect and debates whether any of it really matters. Later in the show, Atlanta Journal-Constitution Washington Correspondent Tia Mitchell joins and they turn their focus to Washington, D.C., to discuss Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell’s announcement that he will soon step down as head of the Senate Republican Conference and how Congress is responding to the recent ruling by the Alabama Supreme Court regarding in vitro fertilization. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The Michigan primary resulted in easy victories for both former president Donald Trump and President Joe Biden, but it also laid bare some discontent in both parties. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, Galen speaks with Bridge Michigan politics reporter Jonathan Oosting, POLITICO senior Washington correspondent and co-author of Playbook Rachael Bade, and 538 director of data analytics G. Elliott Morris about Trump's and Biden's vulnerabilities within their own parties. Later in the show the crew turns its focus to Washington to discuss the looming partial government shutdown and how immigration is continuing to grow as a key issue for voters. They also question whether a recent poll using pictures of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is a "good or bad use of polling?” Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

In a late-night edition of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew reacts to former President Donald Trump's win in South Carolina and asks what former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley's plan is going forward. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Both Democrats and Republicans are facing intraparty conflict over foreign policy, Democrats over the war in Gaza and Republicans over the war in Ukraine. Could these conflicts help determine who wins the presidency in November? On this episode of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew invites Dina Smeltz, senior fellow on public opinion and foreign policy at The Chicago Council on Global Affairs, to break down how the conflicts in Gaza and Ukraine have divided the parties. They also preview the upcoming South Carolina primary race, and ask whether a recent poll of political scientists intending to create a ranking of American presidents was a good or bad use of polling. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

This Presidents Day installment of the 538 Politics podcast grapples with a central question in the 2024 election: What are the legal limits of presidential behavior? Former President Donald Trump is facing 91 criminal charges across four different cases as he campaigns for the White House. Law professor Jessica Roth joins Galen to discuss some of the recent developments in each of the cases and what to expect next. Last week, the judge in the New York hush money case ruled that the trial will begin March 25, meaning it’s now expected to be the first of Trump's cases to be tried. Also, Fulton County DA Fani Willis testified in a hearing to dismiss her from the Georgia election case; the defendants are pushing to have her disqualified on the basis of an alleged conflict of interest. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

In this late-night installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew breaks down the results of the special election in New York's 3rd Congressional District. Democrat Tom Suozzi beat Republican Mazi Pilip in a race to replace former Rep. George Santos. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Voters in New York's 3rd Congressional District are heading to the polls on Tuesday to choose a replacement for former Rep. George Santos. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew discusses the dynamics at play in the most high profile special election this year. They also look at Americans' perceptions of President Joe Biden's age, after a special counsel report described him as a “well-meaning, elderly man with a poor memory,” and they talk about what comes next in the politics of border security. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

What is the most valuable data point to watch heading into the 2024 presidential election? This week on the 538 Politics podcast, we interviewed more than a dozen experts — pollsters, political scientists, data journalists — and asked them this one question. Their combined answers paint a picture of which variables will most influence the election this November. Galen and his guests cover voters' shifting perceptions of the two candidates, issues and key demographics that could make or break them, and the importance of "double haters," voters who have negative opinions of both President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump.  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

How much influence does Taylor Swift actually have? Would her endorsement in a presidential election move voters? Has her presence at NFL games already created new fans among young women? Some have used polling to suggest it has, so in this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, we ask "good or bad use of polling?" The crew also looks at some of the minor primary contests between now and the South Carolina Republican presidential primary and spotlights the biggest takeaways from last quarter's campaign fundraising numbers. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The conventional wisdom is that the economy and a president’s fate are closely tied. For much of Joe Biden’s presidency, part of the story has been that despite a strong labor market and economic growth, views of the economy and Biden’s handling of it have been abysmal. A lot of that likely had to do with inflation, rising interest rates and a declining stock market. Trends that, as of right now, have abated and even reversed. So what’s happened over the past three years and where are we headed? And what does all of that mean for November 2024? In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, Galen speaks with Joanne Hsu, who directs the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey, and Neale Mahoney, economics professor at Stanford University. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew explores the thorny negotiations surrounding immigration and border security in Washington. Galen talks to Carlos Odio, co-founder of Equis Research; Rachael Bade, author of POLITICO Playbook; and Leah Askarinam, 538 politics reporter. Together, the crew discusses evolving public sentiment on immigration, explores proposed policy changes and guesses what Americans think about the political landscape right now. Later in the show, Galen is joined by G. Elliott Morris, 538’s director of data analytics, to uncover more about how 538's pollster ratings are determined and reveal what are the best pollsters in America. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

In a late-night New Hampshire primary reaction edition of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew concludes that the GOP primary is basically over, even if not literally. They dig into the results and exit poll data to describe the coalitions that backed Trump and Haley and explain why this was Haley's best shot at scoring a win. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The Republican primary is officially a two-person race. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew talks about Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis dropping out of the presidential race, expectations for New Hampshire and the future of the Republican primary. They also consider whether a poll asking New Hampshire residents how well they understand the 14th Amendment is a good use of polling. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

With New Hampshire’s first-in-the-nation primary quickly approaching, the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast heads to the Granite State. Galen speaks with Annmarie Timmins, Senior Reporter at the New Hampshire Bulletin, and Neil Levesque, Director of the New Hampshire Institute of Politics at Saint Anselm College, about the potentially competitive contest between frontrunner former President Donald Trump and former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, as well as the nuances of New Hampshire’s electorate. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The crew reacts to former President Donald Trump’s decisive victory in Iowa, as well as the race for second place, in which Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis edged out former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

With just days until the Iowa caucuses, the crew reacts to a head-to-head debate between former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, as well as a town hall featuring former President Donald Trump. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The Iowa caucuses are just a week away, and in this installment, the 538 Politics podcast sets its sights on the early states. Galen speaks with celebrated Iowa pollster Ann Selzer about likely caucusgoers' views of the candidates and how things could change in the final week of the campaign. Later in the show, Galen is joined by ABC News reporters Kendall Ross in Iowa, Kelsey Walsh in New Hampshire and Gabriella Abdul-Hakim in South Carolina. They share their insights from months of talking to voters and listening to candidates as they crisscrossed their states. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The 538 Politics podcast is kicking off the new year with a game of Buy, Sell, Hold. There are a lot of unknowns as we start the year: Who will win the party nominations for president? Will a third party candidate break through? What will come of former president Donald Trump’s legal liability? And ultimately, who will win the White House, the House of Representatives and Senate? There are betting markets for just about all of these unknowns, so Galen asks the crew to make an assessment of the going odds. They also discuss potential wildcards heading into the new year: What issues might motivate voters? How will congressional dysfunction play out? How about October surprises?  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Happy holidays, listeners! As we approach the Republican Iowa caucuses, we decided to re-air our audio documentary series, "The Primaries Project." This series originally aired in early 2020 and investigates how our modern primary system came to be, how it has shaped our political landscape, and how it might be improved. This is episode three of three. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Happy holidays, listeners! As we approach the Republican Iowa caucuses, we decided to re-air our audio documentary series, "The Primaries Project." This series originally aired in early 2020 and investigates how our modern primary system came to be, how it has shaped our political landscape, and how it might be improved. This is episode two of three. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Happy holidays, listeners! As we approach the Republican Iowa caucuses, we decided to re-air our audio documentary series, "The Primaries Project." This series originally aired in early 2020 and investigates how our modern primary system came to be, how it has shaped our political landscape, and how it might be improved. This is episode one of three. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

In this holiday installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew looks back at some of the most important political events of 2023 as well as some of the weirder political stories of the year. They also debate the thorny question of which types of cookies can be considered "Christmas cookies" in a festive edition of "Good or Bad Use of Polling." To wrap it all up, they play "Guess What Americans Think" and guess the answers to polling questions like, "If Santa were a registered voter, which party would he belong to?"  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

On this special reaction edition of the 538 Politics podcast, Galen speaks with Kimberly Wehle, professor of law at the University of Baltimore, and Geoffrey Skelley, senior elections analyst, about the recent ruling from the Colorado Supreme Court that bars Trump from the Colorado Republican primary ballot. They discuss the legal grounding of this ruling, the political reaction and the prospect of the U.S. Supreme Court weighing in. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The U.S. House adjourned for the holidays last week after voting along party lines to authorize an impeachment inquiry into President Biden. The Senate is delaying its holiday recess as negotiators try to hash out a deal that would include aid to Ukraine and Israel as well as funding for border security and possible changes to asylum law. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew heads to Washington to discuss how Congress is closing out the year and what Americans think about it. They also mark just four weeks until the Iowa caucuses and look at what the data says about how much the polls have historically moved during the final stretch before caucus day. And they wrap up by taking stock of how likely Americans were to vote in 2023. Since Trump was elected in 2016, the country has been in an era of historically high turnout in elections. Did that continue this year, and does that portend anything for next year? Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

In early 2020, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez told New York Magazine that, “In any other country [she and President Joe Biden] would not be in the same party.” Yet, by April of that year, after Bernie Sanders dropped out, she “absolutely” threw her support behind Biden, saying “the stakes are too high when it comes to another four years of [former President Donald] Trump.” Since Trump’s victory in 2016, opposition to the former president has served as one of the strongest organizing principles for the Democratic Party. And that dynamic has likely helped paper over some of the “progressive left vs. establishment” divides that were visible in the 2016 and 2020 primaries. While the 2024 Democratic primary is essentially uncompetitive, some cracks in that unity have still emerged. For example, since Biden took office, one of his steepest declines in support has been among young voters, a cohort that backed Sanders in 2016 and 2020. Differing views of the current war between Israel and Hamas have further highlighted the generational divide in the party. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, Galen speaks with author Joshua Green about those divides, where they come from and how they may manifest in 2024. Green’s new book is titled, “The Rebels: Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, and the Struggle for a New American Politics.” Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Former President Donald Trump attracted attention for his answer in a town hall with Sean Hannity last week suggesting he would not abuse his power as president in a second term, “except for Day One.” His answer came after extensive reporting on how his second-term plans would challenge democratic norms and accepted limits on presidential power on issues ranging from Department of Justice investigations to domestic use of the military. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, Galen speaks with constitutional law professor Kate Shaw and professor of government Brendan Nyhan about Trump's second-term agenda. They discuss which aspects of it butt up against norms and the Constitution and which parts might simply be objectionable to partisans. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Galen unpacks the fourth Republican primary debate from Tuscaloosa, Alabama with senior elections analyst Geoffrey Skelley and White House correspondent MaryAlice Parks. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

In the month since the last Republican debate, former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley has been inching up in the national polls, while Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis has been slipping. Today, DeSantis leads Haley by just 3 points nationally, 13 percent to 10 percent. They are similarly close in Iowa, and Haley leads DeSantis by a sizable margin in New Hampshire and South Carolina. Former President Donald Trump is at 60 percent nationally and 40-some percent in the early states. There were already rumblings about Haley supplanting DeSantis as the alternative to Trump, and then, last Tuesday, Americans for Prosperity — the political arm of the Koch network — endorsed Haley, throwing its financial and organizing weight behind her. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew considers whether Haley really has a shot of winning the Republican primary. They also dive into one of the intractable polling questions of our time: What’s the deal with issue polling? In other words, when pollsters ask voters about the issues motivating them or how they feel about a certain policy, what information are voters giving us? Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Exactly one year ago today, OpenAI launched ChatGPT. And quickly, the program changed the conversation around what is possible for artificial intelligence. In the past 12 months, we've seen campaign videos featuring AI-generated images, legislative proposals and a congressional hearing on AI regulation. By all accounts, the 2024 presidential election is going to be our first "AI election." However, often the specifics around AI’s impact remain vague. How exactly could it impact our electoral politics? In this episode of the 538 Politics podcast, Galen speaks with Ethan Bueno de Mesquita, the interim dean of the Harris School of Public Policy at the University of Chicago. Bueno de Mesquita’s research focuses on game theory, political conflict and electoral accountability, and he recently co-authored the white paper "Preparing for Generative AI in the 2024 Election: Recommendations and Best Practices Based on Academic Research." Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The U.S. House gets back to work on Tuesday and one of its first orders of business is expected to be a vote on whether to expel Rep. George Santos of New York. A House ethics report concluded earlier this month that he “sought to fraudulently exploit every aspect of his House candidacy for his own personal financial profit.” In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew discusses how likely Santos is to be added to the only five House expulsions in U.S. history. They also look at changing public opinion surrounding the Israel-Hamas war, after more than a month and a half of fighting. Plus, with new economic data in hand, they once again try to tackle the gap between positive developments and Americans' dismal perception of the economy. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

What makes swing voters swing? In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast Galen heads to Simi Valley, California and speaks with voters whose preferences have crisscrossed parties in recent years. They explain how they’re thinking about politics today and why their views and identities may not fit neatly into one partisan bucket. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

In 2016, as has been widely reported, white working-class voters shifted decisively to the right. In 2020, working-class voters of color followed suit to varying degrees, though still giving President Joe Biden a clear majority of their support. This has left both parties with the understanding that going forward a multiracial, working-class majority will play a pivotal role in their electoral fortunes. So why have we seen these recent shifts to the right and what will both parties do to either capitalize on or reverse these trends? In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, Galen speaks with two authors who have recently published books about precisely those questions, but from opposite sides of the political aisle. Democratic political scientist Ruy Teixeira recently co-wrote the book “Where Have All The Democrats Gone? The Soul Of The Party In The Age Of Extremes” along with John Judis. Republican pollster Patrick Ruffini wrote the book, “Party Of The People: Inside The Multiracial Populist Coalition Remaking the GOP.” Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

To mark one year out from the 2024 election, Galen tries to make sense of the political environment based on all the data we have with a crew of election data nerds: G. Elliott Morris, ABC News editorial director of data analytics; Ruth Igielnik, editor for news surveys at The New York Times; and Lakshya Jain, partner at the election modeling website Split-Ticket.org. In recent days, a spate of polls have come out, mostly showing a similar picture: Not only does former President Donald Trump outperform President Joe Biden in the swing states, he leads, on average, in national polls as well. The suggestion being that if the election were today — and Trump and Biden were the nominees — Trump might be favored to not just win the Electoral College, but the national popular vote too. But there’s a catch, or two. Perhaps most importantly, the election is not today. Also, we got other data last week, from actual elections, showing Democrats performing relatively well. So, one year out, where does that leave us? The crew tries to answer that and later on in the show they also play a game. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The crew reacts to the third Republican primary debate in this late-night edition of the 538 Politics podcast. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

In this late-night edition of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew unpacks the results from election night 2023. Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear won reelection in Kentucky and Ohioans voted to enshrine abortion protections in the state constitution. The night was a decent performance for Democrats, despite a spate of recent polling suggesting Americans are pessimistic about Joe Biden's presidency. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew previews Election Day 2023, focusing on competitive statewide elections in two very Republican-leaning states — Kentucky and Mississippi. They also consider the value of a recent poll that asked whether we live in a "big, beautiful world, mostly full of good people" or if "our lives are threatened by terrorists, criminals, and illegal immigrants.” Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The former congressman and recent Texas transplant joins the podcast to discuss his new book, “Renegade: Defending Democracy and Liberty In Our Divided Country.” He reflects on the current state of the Republican Party, how things could change, and why he's not done with politics just yet. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The pool of candidates running for president grew by one and shrank by one in the past week. President Biden got a little-known Democratic challenger in Dean Phillips, a congressman from Minnesota. And former Vice President Mike Pence suspended his campaign for president after struggling to get above the mid-single digits during his 5-month-long bid. In this installment of the podcast, the crew discusses those latest developments in the presidential race. They also look at what we know about new House Speaker Mike Johnson and what challenges lie ahead for him. And they preview Election Day 2023. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The House of Representatives has officially been without a permanent speaker for 20 days. After Rep. Steve Scalise and Rep. Jim Jordan failed to get enough support, nine new Republican candidates have stepped forward to run for the speakership. In this installment of the podcast, the crew drafts teams of who they think is most likely to fill the position. Then, Eurasia Group president Ian Bremmer joins Galen Druke to talk about why it has been so hard to get good, clear information about the war between Israel and Hamas. Last week, false reports that Israel had struck a hospital in Gaza City and killed hundreds spread online and across the mainstream media, leading to a breakdown in negotiations between President Biden and Arab leaders. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

In this installment of the podcast, the crew looks at the latest polling on how Americans are reacting to the Hamas attacks in Israel and ongoing war in Gaza. They also check in on the speaker’s race in Washington and look at a polling experiment conducted by a conservative PAC hoping to prevent former President Donald Trump from winning the 2024 Republican presidential nomination. Check out the new podcast "Reclaimed: The Forgotten League" on Apple Podcasts (https://tinyurl.com/27krwnxr), Spotify (https://tinyurl.com/mvejpt2t), Amazon Music (https://tinyurl.com/mrxxfkmu), or wherever you're listening now. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The Hamas attacks on Israel dominated American politics over the weekend, with candidates and politicians sharing their reactions to the violence and now ongoing war. In this installment of the podcast, the crew talks about how the conflict is shaping politics in Washington and on the campaign trail. They also discuss some recent notable developments in domestic politics: Last week, President Biden appeared to reluctantly pivot on his administration's approach to border security in south Texas, by clearing the way to build 20 miles of wall. On Monday, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. announced that he is launching an independent bid for the presidency in 2024. And lastly, the crew takes a look at 538's newly published Republican primary polling averages in the early states. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The government did not shut down over the weekend, contrary to the expectations of many. In this installment of the podcast, the crew discusses the congressional machinations that led to a 45-day extension of current funding and why it could create problems for House Speaker Kevin McCarthy. They also consider whether California's senator-designate, Laphonza Butler, will run for election in 2024. Then they look at the data behind a viral TikTok trend suggesting that men think about the Roman Empire significantly more than women and give tips for thinking about outlier polls. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The crew reacts to the second Republican presidential primary debate in this late night podcast. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

We are at an awkward moment in electoral politics. When it comes to the Republican primary, while there are plenty of alternatives to former President Donald Trump, none of them have gained serious traction. When it comes to Democrats, despite consternation about President Biden’s age and electability, he has no serious primary challengers. More than a year out from the presidential election, it seems like the writing is on the wall, that electoral politics are frozen in place, and few people are happy about it. In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, Galen Druke speaks with American politics professor Lynn Vavreck to help make sense of how we got here. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Welcome aboard the Acela, listeners. Today on the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, we are taking a break from the campaign trail and heading to Washington, D.C., where there’s quite a lot going on. House Speaker Kevin McCarthy announced last week that Republicans are opening an impeachment inquiry into President Biden. There are also just 12 days until a possible government shutdown. And some Republicans are threatening McCarthy's speakership. Politics reporter Leah Askarinam and POLITICO Playbook co-author and ABC News contributor Rachael Bade join Galen Druke to discuss. They also play a round of "Quiz of the Union," where they try to put this year's higher-than-usual number of strikes in the context of public opinion. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Among the most politically tuned-in, last week saw the kind of hand-wringing and accusations of bias surrounding the polls that you’d usually expect from the final two months of a campaign, not the final year and two months of a campaign. The focus was largely on general election polls: Whether a Wall Street Journal poll showing former President Donald Trump and President Biden tied is to be trusted. What to make of a CNN poll showing Nikki Haley as the only Republican candidate with a lead over Biden that falls outside the margin of error. How to understand data from the New York Times suggesting that Biden is losing support among voters of color. In this installment of the podcast, Galen speaks with Carlos Odio of Equis Research and Terrance Woodbury of HIT Strategies to parse through which recent data is actually worth paying attention to and which is sound and fury. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Now that we are on the other side of Labor Day and summer is subsiding, this is — as tradition goes — when focus on political campaigns really begins to heat up. The off-year elections this November will get some attention, but the main attraction is still the 2024 Republican presidential primary. In this installment of the podcast, we ask a question we will undoubtedly return to in the four months until the Iowa caucuses: Is Donald Trump’s nomination inevitable? And if not inevitable, how can we place the likelihood he wins the GOP primary in historical context? We also have partial results from two special primary elections and we debate “good or bad use of polling” for a classic and controversial topic: internal polls. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

This is a special end-of-meteorological-summer installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast. Galen Druke speaks with pollsters Kristen Soltis Anderson and David Byler in an episode made entirely of "good or bad use of polling" examples. They consider why GOP primary candidate Vivek Ramaswamy polls differently depending on survey methodology, what we can learn from post-debate polling, whether Nikki Haley used polling well in her debate performance and more. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The crew discusses their takeaways from the first Republican presidential primary debate in this late-night edition of the podcast. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Game time for the Republican presidential primary begins in earnest this week. The first debate is being held in Milwaukee on Wednesday, and it marks the beginning of a five-month countdown to the Iowa caucuses, during which there will be monthly debates, nonstop campaigning and a likely winnowing of the field. While this may be when the nation begins to tune in, folks in the early states have been tuning in -- either by choice or because of multimillion-dollar ad spending -- for months. And so, in preparation for the months ahead, in this installment of the podcast, we take in the view from the early states. To do that, Galen speaks with Katie Akin, politics reporter at the Des Moines Register; Josh Rogers, senior political reporter at New Hampshire Public Radio; and Joseph Bustos, politics reporter at The State in Columbia, South Carolina. They also play the second-ever installment of “Guess Which Candidate Said This!" Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Former President Donald Trump has been indicted for a fourth time, now in Fulton County, Georgia, for efforts to overturn the results of the 2020 presidential election in that state. While the alleged crimes in this case are similar in some ways to his previous federal indictments in special counsel Jack Smith’s investigation, there are important differences. First, these are state crimes, based in part on Georgia’s racketeering laws, which have historically been applied much more broadly than federal racketeering laws. Second, and relatedly, the core of this case involves an alleged criminal enterprise, which has led to the indictments of 18 other people also involved — in various ways — in trying to overturn the results of the 2020 election. Third, these being state crimes, the president has no power to pardon or commute a sentence in this case — important when thinking about the possibility of a second term for Trump. And unlike the former president’s prior indictments in New York, Florida and Washington, D.C., Georgia allows its court proceedings to be televised. That could be a significant factor in how the public might process the indictment. In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, Galen Druke speaks with a group of Georgia legal experts about what to expect from this case and what makes it distinct from Trump's other legal woes. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Abortion rights advocates notched another win in a red state. Last Tuesday, Ohioans voted by a 14-point margin not to raise the threshold to amend the constitution to a 60 percent supermajority. Instead, such amendments will continue to require a simple majority, making it likelier that Ohioans will pass an amendment to codify abortion rights in the state constitution this November. Most of the post-election analysis concluded that abortion is a major driver of turnout in elections now, and it’s hard to deny in otherwise low-turnout environments, but should we apply these lessons to high-turnout environments -- like the 2024 presidential election -- as well? The crew discusses in this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast. They also do a 2024 GOP vice presidential draft, in a world where former President Donald Trump wins the presidential primary. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Tuesday is Election Day in Ohio and it’s a bit of an unusual one. Ohioans are voting on whether to increase the threshold to pass constitutional amendments from a simple majority to a 60 percent supermajority. In this installment of the podcast, Galen Druke speaks with senior elections analyst Nathaniel Rakich about where the race stands and the broader trend of similar ballot measures. Galen also digs into the New York Times’s first polls of the 2024 primary and general elections with Ruth Igielnik, the Times's editor of news surveys. Their surveys with Siena College during the 2022 midterms earned them the distinction of the best pollster in the country, according to FiveThirtyEight's ratings. At this point, their early data suggests that former President Donald Trump is far outpacing his rivals in the Republican primary and is tied with President Biden in general election polling. So, what should we make of that? Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Did former President Donald Trump conspire to defraud the United States, conspire to obstruct an official proceeding, actually obstruct that preceding and conspire to willfully deprive American citizens of their right to vote? Those will now be questions for a federal jury after a grand jury indicted the former president on four felony charges on Tuesday. In this emergency installment of the podcast, the crew discusses what was in the Department of Justice's 45 page charging document, what comes next and how Americans are thinking about it. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Calculations from the World Meteorological Organization suggest that July was the hottest month on record. Throughout the month, heat records were broken across the globe. Phoenix, Arizona, recorded 31 days in a row of temperatures over 110 degrees Fahrenheit and Sanbao, China, provisionally recorded the country’s all-time hottest temperature of 126 degrees. In this installment of the podcast, Galen speaks with Anthony Leiserowitz, the director and founder of the Yale Program on Climate Change Communication, about public perceptions of climate change, how extreme weather shapes those views and whether it's shaping our politics. Galen also speaks with Kaleigh Rogers and Nathaniel Rakich about some of the latest GOP primary polling and how changes to election law in both red and blue states will reshape how Americans vote in 2024. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

It is widely believed that former President Donald Trump will be indicted for a third time in the coming days or weeks, as he received a target letter from the Department of Justice last week. The potential federal charges involve the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol and attempts to overturn the results of the 2020 election leading up to that day. In this installment of the podcast, the crew discusses what Americans think about Jan. 6, Trump's role in it and whether he ought to be charged. They also draft a 2024 Republican primary lineup, under a hypothetical scenario in which Trump's legal woes catch up to him and the field is thrown open. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Campaign finance figures from the second quarter of 2023 were released over the weekend. They offered a first glimpse at many of the presidential campaigns’ finances, since most candidates announced their bids during the second quarter. In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the crew breaks down which of the 2024 candidates has been able to haul in the big bucks and who looks like they might have cash problems. Also, on Monday, the centrist group No Labels is hosting a town hall in New Hampshire featuring Sen. Joe Manchin and former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman. The group has said that they plan to run a moderate ticket in 2024 featuring one Republican and one Democrat (although not necessarily the two featured in Monday’s town hall). Early polling suggests that such a ticket would pull more support from President Biden than former President Donald Trump in a potential rematch. But is that a good or bad use of polling, 16 months out? Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Love it or hate it, this is President Biden’s economy and he’s taking credit for it. In recent weeks, Biden has been rolling out his economic pitch to Americans. It started with a high-profile speech in Chicago where he branded his policies as “Bidenomics” and positioned them in opposition to trickle-down “Reaganomics.” Since then, Biden and his campaign surrogates have fanned out across the country to make their pitch. This is coming at a time when Americans are quite pessimistic about the economy. In recent polls, less than a third of Americans say the economy is good. But still, economic data paints a relatively strong picture. The unemployment rate -- according to data out last Friday -- stands at 3.6 percent. That’s close to a 50-year low. And inflation, although it remains somewhat high, has fallen to 4 percent from a high of 9 percent last summer. In this installment of the podcast, Galen speaks with Jeanna Smialek, who covers the Federal Reserve and economy for the New York Times, and Neil Irwin, chief economic correspondent for Axios. They discuss how much of Biden’s approach to economic policy is actually new, what it looks like on the ground and why Americans are so pessimistic. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The Supreme Court wrapped up its business for the term last week, closing out a docket that touched on the Voting Rights Act, affirmative action in university admissions, student loan forgiveness, business services to LGBTQ people, religious liberty and the power of state legislatures. It was another term with high-profile cases, coursing through the heart of some of America’s cultural debates. In this installment of the podcast, the crew discusses whether this year’s decision could ricochet through the political environment, as last year's decisions did. They also take stock of what more we've learned about a still quite new 6-3 conservative majority. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

It's the final week of June and that means that we are anxiously awaiting the decisions in several high-profile Supreme Court cases. The remaining cases touch on issues including affirmative action, President Biden's student loan forgiveness program, business services to LGBTQ people and the power of state legislatures. In this installment of the podcast, we take a look at what various public opinion polls have found on affirmative action and ask whether it's a good or bad use of polling. We also explore what to make of RFK Jr.’s relatively strong Democratic primary polling. Plus, the Republican presidential primary field has grown again, with the addition of former Texas Rep. Will Hurd. He joins a crowded anti-Trump lane. So what’s up with all the anti-Trump candidates in a primary full of voters who like former President Donald Trump? And lastly, this weekend marked one year since the Supreme Court’s decision in Dobbs. We consider how that decision itself may have changed public opinion. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

There’s been a lot thrown at Republican voters over the past few weeks. The field of primary candidates has doubled; the leading contender in the primary was federally indicted on 37 counts related to his handling of classified documents and alleged obstruction of justice; and a contest that had remained largely deferential to Trump has gotten more testy. In this installment of the podcast, pollster Kristen Soltis-Anderson and Washington Post data columnist David Byler join Galen to look at how Republican primary voters are processing the news and what they want from a presidential nominee. They also ask the timeless question: What is up with the kids these days? Various analyses have come to conflicting conclusions about whether millennials and young voters in general are bucking a generations-long trend of growing more conservative with age. And they play a new game called “Which Candidate Said This?” Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Former President Donald Trump was arraigned on Tuesday at a federal courthouse in Miami in relation to his alleged retention of classified documents and obstruction of justice. He pleaded not guilty, setting in motion a trial that could potentially run in tandem with his campaign for president. In this installment of the podcast, Galen Druke speaks with law professor and legal analyst Kate Shaw about how the case will proceed and what the possible outcomes are. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Former President Donald Trump was indicted on federal charges on Thursday related to classified documents he took from the White House. In this installment of the podcast, the crew discusses the severity and possible political implications of the charges. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

By the end of this week, the number of major candidates running for the Republican presidential nomination is expected to grow to nine. Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, former Vice President Mike Pence and North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum are all expected to jump into the race this week. In this installment of the podcast, the crew discusses how these candidates might shape the race. Also, the Republican National Committee announced the date and criteria for the first primary debate last Friday. The polling criteria are pretty notable, as there may not be that many polls that actually qualify. So is that a good or bad use of polling? And over the weekend, President Biden signed into law a suspension of the debt ceiling through January 2025 along with some cuts to federal spending. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

In this installment of the podcast, the crew talks about what’s in the debt ceiling agreement, why polls on the debt ceiling have been straight-up contradictory and what could happen if the legislation isn’t passed by next Monday. They also discuss the significant increase in laws involving sexuality and gender in Republican-led states and what Americans think about them. And Galen speaks with senior writer Monica Potts about her new book, "The Forgotten Girls." Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis has officially entered the Twitter space ... er, presidential race. He kicked off his campaign in a conversation on a glitchy Twitter Spaces with Elon Musk and tech entrepreneur David Sacks on Wednesday. In his opening remarks, he stressed his electability and the ability to implement a policy platform that may not look all that different from that of former President Donald Trump. In this installment of the podcast, the crew discusses what DeSantis's presidential bid will look like. In FiveThirtyEight's national GOP primary polling averages, Trump currently leads at around 54 percent with DeSantis at around 20 percent, although these things can change quickly in a primary environment. In fact, they already have: Just a couple months ago, Trump’s lead over DeSantis was half of what it is today. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast gets ready for a big week in politics. South Carolina Senator Tim Scott officially kicked off his presidential campaign in North Charleston Monday morning. We also expect the long-teased Ron DeSantis presidential campaign to become a reality this week. And, according to the Treasury Department we are just a week or so away from a possible default on the nation’s debt. National politics reporter at the AP Meg Kinnard and Data Columnist at the Washington Post join the crew to weigh in. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Since 1956, European countries have been gathering each year to compete in the Eurovision song contest -- a competition of largely pop and techno artists that can often feel like a parody of European tastes in music. There have long been accusations of bias in the voting process and last Saturday's competition -- which Sweden won -- was no exception. In this installment of the podcast, Galen speaks with statistics and health economics professor Gianluca Baio, who created a model to determine whether there really are biases advantaging or disadvantaging certain nations. Galen also speaks with Courtney Kennedy, vice president of methods and innovation at the Pew Research Center, who recently published a study showing that the polling industry of today bears little semblance to the polling industry at the start of the century. The days of real human beings randomly dialing landline phones are gone, but what does that mean for the accuracy of public opinion research? Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

On Tuesday, voters are heading to the polls in at least three competitive races: the Kentucky Republican gubernatorial primary, the Philadelphia Democratic mayoral primary and the Jacksonville mayoral election. In this installment of the podcast, Galen and Nathaniel preview the state of those three races. They also speak with YouGov's Linley Sanders about a new poll showing that Democrats broadly trust news outlets more than Republicans, including even some right-leaning news outlets. And they look at how the public is reacting to last week's scandals involving former President Donald Trump and New York Rep. George Santos. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Title 42 is expiring on Thursday night, a pandemic-era rule allowing the U.S. government to turn away asylum seekers at the border as a public health measure. This comes at a time when apprehensions at the border are already at record highs and Americans give President Biden some of his lowest ratings on his handling of immigration. In this installment of the podcast, Galen speaks with Georgetown economics professor Anna Maria Mayda about what Americans think of immigration and why, its impacts on the U.S. and its politics, and how that compares with other countries. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

King Charles III was crowned over the weekend, which led to a lot of polls comparing his popularity to that of other members of the royal family. Long story short, the numbers aren’t great, but in some ways that's beside the point. In this installment of the podcast, the crew asks if polling non-democratic institutions is a good use of polling. They also look at a recent ABC News/Washington Post poll showing both former President Donald Trump and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis leading Biden in a very early 2024 matchup. And they talk about the 2024 Senate races that are taking shape. Republican challengers to vulnerable Democratic incumbents are announcing their bids, and a number of them are repeat candidates from the 2022 midterms. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

For decades, Americans have been moving South and West. That migration pattern was visible in political terms when seven congressional districts moved between states after the 2020 census, and it continues to be visible in the booming construction and job markets in cities across the Sun Belt. In this installment of the podcast, Galen speaks with author Jake Bittle, who argues that it’s only a matter of time before those trends reverse, or at least shift. However, as he writes in his new book, "The Great Displacement," this time it won’t be cheap housing, low taxes and plentiful jobs that attract people to new places. It will be a harshening climate that pushes them away. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

President Biden announced his reelection campaign last Tuesday, a widely expected move that also brings us one step closer to a possible rematch of the 2020 election. The crew talks about the challenges and advantages that the campaign will bring. They also discuss last week's decision from the North Carolina Supreme Court, clearing the way for partisan gerrymandering in the state. And they ask whether Americans can be trusted to reliably tell pollsters which high school cliques they belonged to. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Congress returned from recess last week to two ongoing conflicts. One was Sen. Dianne Feinstein’s absence from the Senate, stalling the process by which Democrats can approve their judicial nominees. The other was what to do about the debt ceiling, which has already been breached and could lead to the U.S. government running out of money as early as June. In this installment of the podcast, the crew discusses the latest developments and what Americans think about it all. They also dig into new data on America’s most and least popular senators and governors, and ask which animals American are and aren't willing to eat. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast held a live taping at The Bell House in Brooklyn on Wednesday night, its first return to a live venue in New York City since the pandemic. Nate Silver and Galen Druke dissect a recent poll suggesting 30 percent of New Yorkers want to leave the state, challenge ChatGPT to see if it can replace their jobs and discuss the current state of the 2024 Republican primary. They also welcome a surprise guest and an audience member to play a round of New York City-themed trivia. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The Supreme Court is set for another high-profile clash over abortion rights. Last Friday, Justice Samuel Alito issued a temporary stay in a case challenging the FDA’s approval of mifepristone, a drug used in medication abortions. It means that for now the status quo stands, but in this installment of the podcast, the crew talks about where things could go from here. They also discuss South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott’s pitch to Republican voters after the launch of his exploratory committee for president, and the potential impact of Montana Republicans’ attempts to change the state’s election laws for the 2024 U.S. Senate race. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

According to Gallup’s National Health and Well-Being Index, the negative emotion consequences of the coronavirus pandemic have subsided to a large degree. According to recent data, 17 percent of Americans said they were lonely “a lot of the day yesterday,” down from a pandemic high of 25 percent. Galen Druke speaks with director of the National Health and Well-Being Index, Dan Witters, to get an understanding of what American life satisfaction looks like today. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

How concerned, if at all, are you about the possibility that AI will cause the end of the human race on Earth? And more importantly for the purposes of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, is that a good or bad use of polling? In this installment, the crew discuss how reflective of public opinion a recent poll on AI was and why politicians have been slow to regulate it. They also turn their attention to the recent expulsion of two Tennessee lawmakers from the state House and a ruling from a federal judge in Texas that would revoke federal approval of a drug used in medication abortions. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Tuesday was quite the day in American politics. Former President Donald Trump was arraigned in Manhattan and pleaded not guilty to 34 charges of falsifying business records in the first degree. It was also Election Day in one of the country’s purplest states and its third-largest city. In Wisconsin, voters chose the liberal state Supreme Court candidate Janet Protasiewicz by a double-digit margin, flipping the ideological orientation of the court. And in Chicago, voters chose progressive Brandon Johnson as their next mayor in a very close race, ultimately rejecting the tough-on-crime alternative. The crew covers it all in this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The crew previews a big week ahead in politics. Former President Donald Trump is expected to be arraigned in Manhattan on Tuesday, following last week's indictment. Also on Tuesday, voters will head to the polls to decide the balance of power on the Wisconsin Supreme Court and the next mayor of Chicago. The crew also discusses former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson's entrance into the 2024 Republican presidential primary. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

In this emergency installment of the podcast, the crew reacts to news that former President Donald Trump was indicted by a Manhattan grand jury in a case involving hush money payments to porn actor Stormy Daniels. They discuss the possible political implications and what will come next in the case. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

In our federalist system, the saying goes, the states are laboratories of democracy. State governments test out different policies or even political strategies that may someday reach the whole country or drive red and blue states further apart. This year FiveThirtyEight is tracking what that looks like -- what legislation is being proposed and passed and how Republicans and Democrats are going about things differently. In this installment of the podcast, the crew looks at new proposals on guns, tax and spending plans and identity. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

After breaking records and breaking Ticketmaster with her "Eras" tour, pollsters have tried to determine who exactly Taylor Swift's fans are and which of her 10 albums is best regarded. In this episode, the crew asks its favorite question about one of America’s favorite musicians: Is this a good or bad use of polling? Then they take a hard turn back into electoral politics, with the question: Who do Democrats want the GOP nominee to be, and what does that tell us about how they’re thinking about 2024? Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

All eyes have been on the Manhattan district attorney’s office this week to see whether Donald Trump will become the first former American president to be indicted on criminal charges. It appears unlikely that an indictment will come this week. And even if the grand jury were to indict, the charges wouldn’t be unsealed until the defendant appears in court. In this installment of the podcast, the crew talks about what we do and don’t know about Trump’s legal jeopardy and the possible political impact of an indictment. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The crew looks back at two of the most notable American political decisions of the 21st century: the 2003 invasion of Iraq and the bailout of American banks during the 2007-'08 financial crisis. Both feel relevant today, as the country marks the 20th anniversary of the Iraq War and the government responds to two of the largest bank failures in U.S. history. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The U.S. Census may be the most consequential data set in America. It determines how political representation is apportioned in Washington and how trillions of dollars in federal funding are allocated. But the data contained in the Census shouldn't always be taken at face value. Galen Druke speaks with historian Dan Bouk about his book, "Democracy's Data: The Hidden Stories in the U.S. Census and how to Read Them." Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Polling had its most accurate election cycle in at least 25 years in 2022. The crew explains the numbers behind that conclusion, which suggest that, despite a lot of the handwringing, polling is still just about as accurate as it's ever been. Later in the show, Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux discusses how the debate over abortion has evolved since the 2022 midterms. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Galen Druke and Nate Silver open up the mailbag and answer listener questions about politics and polling. They cover American skepticism of artificial intelligence — according to one poll, only 9 percent of Americans say it will do more good than harm to society — and consider what to make of former president Donald Trump’s gains on Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis in early Republican presidential primary polling. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Author Marianne Williamson officially entered the 2024 Democratic presidential primary on Saturday. It’s very unlikely that Williamson will be a serious challenger to President Biden, but with multiple polls suggesting that a majority of Democrats don’t want Biden to run for reelection, the crew asks if he might be vulnerable against the right challenger? They also take a look at the results of recent elections in Chicago, Wisconsin and Virginia to see if they hold any lessons about the national political environment. And they ask whether the poll that Dilbert creator Scott Adams went on a racist rant over was actually a meaningful poll. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

American government is designed to have components that are not directly accountable to the public. The Supreme Court is probably the most recognizable example, but it’s not the only one. In her new book, “Limitless: The Federal Reserve Takes On A New Age Of Crisis,” New York Times reporter Jeanna Smialek focuses on another unelected institution with a lot of power over American life: the Federal Reserve. In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, Smialek argues that over the past century, through successive crises, the Fed has accumulated the power to choose winners and losers across American markets and society on the whole. And if partisan loyalists were to make their way onto the Fed board, that degree of power could be abused. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

To mark a year since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Galen Druke brings back two experts who first joined the podcast when the war began. Samuel Charap is a senior political scientist at the RAND Corporation and author of the book “Everyone Loses: The Ukraine Crisis and the Ruinous Contest for Post-Soviet Eurasia.” James Acton is a physicist and co-director of the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Together they describe why the war has not turned out as originally expected, what the risks of escalation are today and how the conflict might come to an end. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

It's a busy week! The crew looks at what Americans think about aid to Ukraine one year on, how the public may respond to Sen. John Fetterman's treatment for clinical depression and former President Trump's legal liability in a Fulton County investigation. They also preview next week's mayoral election in Chicago and ask whether a new poll of Arizona's 2024 Senate race is actually telling us anything useful. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

This week Nikki Haley became the first major candidate to challenge former President Donald Trump in the 2024 Republican presidential primary. The crew discusses what her path to the nomination could look like, given that Trump and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis are the only candidates who currently have sizable support in national polls. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The U.S. shot down at least three unidentified flying objects over the weekend. We’re still waiting to find out what the deal is, but this focus on slow moving objects in U.S. airspace was kicked off by a Chinese spy balloon that the U.S. shot down earlier this month. Tensions between the U.S. and China have grown in recent years and, in this installment, the crew looks at changing public opinion of China and how it could shape American politics. They also ask whether the Republican Party can coalesce around an alternative to former President Donald Trump and whether President Biden’s recent dismissal of the polls is a “good or bad use of polling.” Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

President Biden delivered his second State of the Union address on Tuesday to a newly divided Congress. It was his first big national speech since the midterms and a preview of his likely 2024 reelection bid. The crew discusses the arguments Biden laid out and where he stands with American voters two years into his presidency. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

In this installment of "Model Talk," Nate and Galen discuss a recently published assessment of how our 2022 midterm forecast performed. How did the polling averages and seat-gain projections compare with the actual results? If we said there was a 70 percent chance a candidate would win a race, did that actually happen 70 percent of the time? Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Americans are spending more and more time alone, and more than a third reported experiencing “serious loneliness" in 2021. The director of the Harvard Study of Adult Development -- the longest study of human life ever conducted -- concluded in a new book that close personal relationships are the "one crucial factor [that] stands out for the consistency and power of its ties to physical health, mental health and longevity." A lack of those relationships can actually have an impact on political behavior and interest in extreme ideologies. Galen Druke speaks with the director of the Harvard study, Robert Waldinger, about the lessons his findings have for politics in America. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Although much of our elections-related attention is already trained on 2024, there are consequential elections happening this very calendar year. The crew discusses the races to watch in 2023. They also look at how the Democratic Party's effort to rearrange its presidential primary calendar is going, and ask whether a survey of Republican National Committee members was a good or bad use of polling. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

In his new book "Aftermath: The Last Days of the Baby Boom and the Future of Power in America," Washington Post national columnist Philip Bump argues that many of the fissures that the country is facing today — politically, economically, culturally — have to do with the Baby Boomers getting old. Galen speaks with him. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The crew discusses how debates on both the debt ceiling and the future of Rep. George Santos’s career might unfold. In light of new data showing union membership at its lowest point since the Bureau of Labor Statistics began counting, they also look at how that decline has shaped U.S. politics. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Over the weekend, the White House announced that five more classified documents from the Obama administration were found at President Biden's Delaware home. The crew asks whether comparisons to former President Donald Trump's own classified document scandal are apt. They also discuss why gas stoves became such a hot topic of debate on the internet and what the 2024 primary for U.S. Senate in California will look like. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

As we head into the new year and our attention begins to turn to the presidential primaries, we decided to reair our audio documentary series, “The Primaries Project.” It originally aired at the beginning of 2020 and across three episodes we looked at how our presidential primary system came to be, its consequences and how it could be different. This is the final episode. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The crew looks at why it took 15 votes to get Rep. Kevin McCarthy elected House Speaker and what that process says about the two years ahead and the GOP more broadly. They also consider how Rep. George Santos’s scandals will affect his tenure in Congress and whether he would have been elected at all if his fabricated biography had received more scrutiny during the campaign. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Happy holidays! As we head into the new year and our attention begins to turn to the presidential primaries, we decided to reair our audio documentary series, “The Primaries Project.” It originally aired at the beginning of 2020 and across three episodes we looked at how our presidential primary system came to be, its consequences and how it could be different. This is the second episode. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Happy holidays! As we head into the new year and our attention begins to turn to the presidential primaries, we decided to reair our audio documentary series, “The Primaries Project.” It originally aired at the beginning of 2020 and across three episodes we looked at how our presidential primary system came to be, its consequences and how it could be different. This is the first episode. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

As the House Select Committee for Jan. 6 publishes its final report, the crew considers what the committee's impact has been on American politics and former President Donald Trump's standing with voters. They also look ahead to how the Department of Justice will navigate the complexities of deciding whether to bring charges against Trump and how a Republican majority in the House could respond. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Editor Chadwick Matlin turns the tables on Galen Druke and asks him questions about what he’s learned from covering the 2022 election and his time as host of the podcast. They consider how much preelection polling can tell us about the state of the country and what other sources we might rely on. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

As the broader electorate shifted left in 2020, compared to 2016, Latino voters shifted 8 percentage points to the right. It was the biggest shift of any demographic group between the two presidential elections and led to some speculation about a possible realignment. Galen Druke speaks with Equis Research co-founder Carlos Odio about whether that trend continued in the 2022 midterms and what it all means for 2024. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

With midterm elections in the rearview mirror, Galen and Nate open up the mail bag to answer lingering questions about the results. They also consider Arizona Sen. Kyrsten Sinema's motivations for registering as an independent and look at the latest polling on a potential presidential primary matchup between Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and former President Donald Trump. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The crew reacts to Senator Raphael Warnock's win in the Georgia Senate runoff. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Galen speaks with Atlanta Journal Constitution reporters Tia Mitchell and Greg Bluestein about how the Georgia senate runoff is looking in the final stretch. The crew also looks at changes the Democratic Party is hoping to make to the 2024 presidential primary calendar. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices