What Goes Up

Be in the know this election with Bloomberg Podcasts. Follow Bloomberg News Now for up-to-the minute election results, all night long. And go deeper with The Big Take podcast, featuring in-depth global analysis of the US election every day this week. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

From our friends over at the Elon, Inc. podcast from Businessweek, hosted by David Papadopoulos, is this special episode we're sharing to our What Goes Up listeners. Please enjoy this episode, subscribe to their feed, and leave a review!---- For years, Tesla fans and critics alike have produced mock bingo cards ahead of Tesla earnings calls. And so, in honor of Tesla’s next call, which will be held Jan. 24 after markets close, the Elon Inc. crew produced our own bingo game. This week we preview Tesla’s Q4 2023 earnings and introduce our picks for which Muskisms will carry the day. You can download a PDF of this quarter’s bingo card here. In this episode we also recap the other major events from the week: A visit to Auschwitz, a farewell to a former political ally and a paltry attempt at feud of the week.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Bloomberg News Now is a comprehensive audio report on today's top stories. Listen for the latest news, whenever you want it, covering global business stories around the world.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

At Bloomberg, we’re always talking about the biggest business stories, and no one is bigger than Elon Musk. In this new chat weekly show, host David Papadopoulos and a panel of guests including Businessweek’s Max Chafkin, Tesla reporter Dana Hull, Big Tech editor Sarah Frier, and more, will break down the most important stories on Musk and his empire. Listen wherever you get your podcasts.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Hey 'What Goes Up' listeners, here's another Bloomberg podcast you might enjoy: Merryn Talks Money. It's hosted by senior columnist Merryn Somerset Webb and every week aims to explain how markets work – and how you can make them work for you. Every episode features a relaxed but in-depth conversation with a fund manager, a strategist, a Bloomberg expert or just someone Merryn finds particularly interesting in any given week. Listen in for the kind of insights and explanations everyone can use to help them make better saving and investing choices. This week Merryn speaks to GMO's Jeremy Grantham. Listen to part of the conversation here and the whole thing on the Merryn Talks Money feed. Enjoy Merryn Talks Money on Apple podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts:https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/merryn-talks-money/id1654809850See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The troubles facing highly indebted property developers in China have dominated conversations about the Asian nation’s economy and markets this year. Yet according to Rayliant Global Advisors’ Jason Hsu, there’s an important distinction between this housing crisis and previous ones elsewhere: The developers are the ones who are over-leveraged—not households. And that difference is guiding policymakers’ response.Hsu, chief investment officer of Rayliant and a co-founder of Research Affiliates, joined the What Goes Up podcast to discuss China and other emerging markets. “Chinese households are not levered when it comes to real estate,” he says. “They’re not levered because they can buy their first home with money down—and they pay quite a bit money down—and they generally have to sort of have enough income to cover the payment. That bankruptcy you’re seeing in the developer sector is very engineered. On the household side, there’s not a balance-sheet crisis, because they’re not buying real estate on leverage. So they really don’t think there’s a meaningful problem there.”See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

When it comes to the US Federal Reserve’s campaign to crush inflation by raising interest rates, Morgan Stanley Chief US Economist Ellen Zentner says this: “I have a strong view that they’re done here—but they have left the door open.”Zentner joined the What Goes Up podcast to discuss the Fed’s decision this week to pause rate hikes, and what she expects of monetary policy and the US economy going forward. Cooling inflation should keep the central bank on hold until it’s ready to cut rates next year, she says. In the near term, a potential government shutdown by Republicans would bolster the case for maintaining the status quo at the Fed’s November meeting. A shutdown, she explains, would leave policymakers without all of the economic data they need to make a decision.“In monetary-policy making, uncertainty tends to lead to policy paralysis,” Zentner says. “If we’re lacking data that the Fed can officially sink its teeth into, then that’s going to lead to an inability to make a decision about the path for rates.”See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

A few years ago, an editor asked Bloomberg investigative reporter Zeke Faux to take a look at the cryptocurrency Tether, a so-called stablecoin meant to precisely track the US dollar by backing it with real-world reserves. What followed was a tour through some of the most-colorful corners of the crypto world, from Mighty Ducks actor Brock Pierce’s yacht to FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried’s digs in the Bahamas and, finally, a hotbed for human trafficking in Cambodia.Faux joined the What Goes Up podcast to discuss his reporting, which is laid out in his new book Number Go Up: Inside Crypto’s Wild Rise and Staggering Fall. “There's actually these whole office towers, floor after floor of people who've been lured from, say, like Vietnam, with the offer of a good job,” Faux says. “Then when they get there, they're trapped. They're told they can't leave. They're beaten. They get electric shocks, other forms of torture, and they're just given like 10 phones each and made to try to lure people into scams from around the world.”See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

From artificial intelligence to electric vehicles and travel stocks, some of the previously hot equity-market themes have borne the brunt of the selling during the market’s dip in August and September. Sylvia Jablonski, chief executive of Defiance ETFs LLC, joined the What Goes Up podcast to discuss why that is. She also makes the case for buying the dip. “Everyone kind of panics, sells off tech, sells off growth and goes back into cash, cash equivalents, staples and kind of the defensive types of plays,” Jablonski explains. But “these are actually great opportunities, especially if you’re a young person investing for the long term. These are amazing opportunities to dollar-cost average. That’s how I would characterize this market this year.”See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

There’s a lot of excitement around AI-focused stocks right now, but market veteran Art Hogan urges caution when it comes to companies that are just trying to take advantage of the hype without having true ties to the industry.  The chief market strategist at B. Riley Wealth joined the What Goes Up podcast to discuss how he views the artificial intelligence investment landscape, as well as other market trends. “If we start to see the capital markets open, and we start to have a flood of newly minted companies that are AI-specific or adjacent, I would avoid that at all costs because they likely don’t have models,” he says.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Matt Levine, a columnist for Bloomberg Opinion who writes the Bloomberg newsletter Money Stuff, joined the What Goes Up podcast to discuss some of the hot finance topics he’s been covering and what he means when he says “everything is securities fraud.”“I have a genre of stories called ‘everything is securities fraud,’ which is where public companies do random bad things and people sue them for securities fraud,” Levine says. “It’s indicative of this really big, interesting trend in American securities laws where everything gets sort of reflected—all conduct gets reflected—through the notion of securities fraud because it’s easy to bring cases and the damages can be really large. And so you can like litigate, you can fight over, all sorts of political and social issues by calling them securities fraud.”See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Crypto fanatics have been pining for a Bitcoin exchange-traded fund for a decade now. But as the applications piled up, US regulators repeatedly declined to approve one, citing the risk of fraud and market manipulation in cryptocurrency markets.But with the entrance of BlackRock Inc. into the race, many market watchers are hopeful that one or more spot-Bitcoin ETFs will finally get the go-ahead. After all, the world’s largest asset manager has a strong track record of getting funds past regulatory roadblocks. On this week’s episode of the What Goes Up podcast, Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart from Bloomberg Intelligence join to discuss how BlackRock’s application dramatically changes the outlook for Bitcoin ETFs.“When they filed, it was a whole different ballgame in my opinion,” says Balchunas. “The fact is they generally like to bring a gun to a knife fight. This is a firm who doesn’t like to lose, who knows what they're doing, and they must see something.”See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

From the renewed and growing power of American organized labor to the case for minting a $1 trillion coin to end debt-ceiling brinkmanship once and for all, Bloomberg’s Odd Lots podcast has tried to tackle some of the most important topics related to the economy and financial markets. From Modern Monetary Theory to Bidenomics, the show hasn’t found a topic it can’t chew on.Now, the podcast’s hosts get the chance to answer some questions instead of asking them. Tracy Alloway and Joe Weisenthal joined the What Goes Up podcast to give their takes on some of the hot-button issues of the day.   See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The price of gold tends to do well in times of elevated uncertainty about economies and financial systems—something the world has seen a lot of in the past few years. Yet each time the precious metal rallies above $2,000 an ounce, it quickly falls back below that threshold.Why is that? Joe Cavatoni, strategist at the World Gold Council, joined the What Goes Up podcast to explain what drives the price of gold, what buyers need to know and why that magic number has served as a ceiling. One main reason, he says, is that when prices go that high, they tend to reduce the real-world demand for gold—including from buyers of jewelry in China and India. “These are price-sensitive businesses and price-sensitive consumers,” Cavatoni says. “So when you start seeing those types of price levels develop, that’s when you see those types of consumers back away from buying—and investors aren’t ready to step back in in the long-term.”See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

A rallying stock market and better-than-expected second-quarter economic growth are just the latest developments pointing Wall Street skeptics to the possibility of a US “soft landing.” That’s where the Federal Reserve gets inflation back down to around 2% without triggering a downturn. For more than a year, Fed Chair Jerome Powell has waged war on inflation while a chorus of adamant recession predictions has fallen flat. But even now, with inflation cooling and the economy looking to be on the glidepath, some big names remain uncertain that he can pull it off. Vanguard Group is one of them.Joseph Davis, the firm’s global chief economist and head of its Investment Strategy Group, joined the What Goes Up podcast to explain why that is, as well as offer his reaction to the latest interest-rate increase and give his outlook for the bond market. “To get inflation down that last yard to 2%, you have to see a modest weakening in the labor market, which means the unemployment rate’s going to rise—although hopefully not drastically, let’s say four-and-a-half percent over the next year,” he says. “Well, that’s a hundred basis-point rise. So by definition, that is a recession. Now, anyone who thinks that that’s a soft landing is spitting in the face of 150 years of history.”See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

A slow-motion crisis is unfolding in the global commercial real-estate market, thanks to the double-whammy of higher interest rates and lower demand for office space following the Covid-19 pandemic.John Fish, who is head of the construction firm Suffolk, chair of the Real Estate Roundtable think tank and former chair of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, joined the What Goes Up podcast to discuss the problems facing the sector and what’s being done to help.  “The biggest problem right now is the capital markets nationally have frozen,” he says of the US. “And the reason why they’ve frozen is because nobody understands value. We can’t evaluate price discovery because very few assets have traded during this period of time. Nobody understands where bottom is.” One step in the right direction, he says, is recent guidance from federal regulators that allows lenders more flexibility when it comes to borrowers who need to refinance properties.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

US Federal Reserve officials have been adamant that they’re looking to get inflation levels back down to 2%. But the path to that goal could bring pain to millions of workers, a possible trade-off that “doesn’t make sense,” according to Rick Rieder, BlackRock Inc.’s chief investment officer of global fixed income. “This whole idea of there’s a magic to 2% doesn’t make any sense to me. You just had immense stimulus—let it play out,” he says on this week’s episode of the What Goes Up podcast. “Interest rates—how much would you have to move them to get the unemployment rate to a level to slow wages? It’s not worth it. Why would you take millions of people out of work because you need to go from 2.7% to 2%?” He called the Fed goal a search for “mystical perfection.” BlackRock manages about $2.7 trillion in fixed-income assets for its clients. Rieder adds that the segment of the population that gets hurt by higher inflation is the one that would bear the brunt of any potential layoffs. Meanwhile, raising rates creates an income benefit to wealthier people who tend to be savers, he says. “It’s illogical to me.”See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Global shifts in incomes and populations, geopolitics and the climate crisis are combining to drastically alter the outlook for the world’s food supply. Taimur Hyat, chief operating officer for asset manager PGIM, joined the What Goes Up podcast to discuss his research into the changing world of food and what opportunities and risks it all presents to investors.   “We think food is where the energy sector and this whole talk about energy transition was about 10 years ago,” Hyat says. “We are like 10 years behind in the thinking. And it’s going to catch up with us, because the current food system is simply not fit for purpose. It is not going to work for our planet, it’s not going to work for our consumption needs for a variety of reasons.”See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The disconnect between a roaring stock market and stubborn recession predictions has left many investors scratching their heads. The equity strategists at Bloomberg Intelligence however have an intriguing explanation: Maybe the part of the economic downdraft most likely to impact stocks started last year, and the worst could already be over. That’s what an economic-regime model suggests, according to BI Chief Equity Strategist Gina Martin Adams and her team. She joined the What Goes Up podcast to explain how the model works, and offer her mid-year update on the market. The model uses month-over-month changes in capacity utilization, continuing jobless claims, ISM Manufacturing data and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment level to define the economy’s health. “This indicator started suggesting there were economic risks emerging for the equity market as early as June of last year,” Martin Adams says. “And then it hit just an outright low level, like a low that you never see outside of recession. We effectively had this big loss of momentum in the economy that impacted the equity market—extremely negatively—between June and December.” She says that, by the model’s measure, the economy still isn’t out of the woods. “It’s still terrible. The reading is awful. It suggests we may actually still be in some form of an economic correction or recession, but it’s off of the low,” Martin Adams says. “So this is what’s really meaningful for price direction: As we know, equity prices are driven by shifts in momentum.”See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

While in some places life has mostly gotten back to normal following the Covid-19 pandemic, there are aspects of economies and markets that may have been altered permanently. Jared Gross, the head of institutional portfolio strategy at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, joined the What Goes Up podcast to discuss his team’s research into the post-pandemic landscape.  According to Gross, some of the most-important legacies of the global health crisis will be disruptions to trade practices and the reaction of central banks to volatility in markets. Some highlights of the conversation:“It’s a rewiring of trade. The big pipe between China and the developed markets is being split apart. There’s a lot of reshoring, onshoring, friendshoring, nearshoring—all of that stuff is going on, and it’s a real thing, and it’s going to change the way trade happens,” Gross said.   Another big change is that investors can’t expect the US Federal Reserve to come to the rescue when markets wobble, he says. “The central bank put, which everyone used to talk about, has probably been replaced with a fiscal put. If you’re looking for a backstop for market volatility, you probably can’t depend on the monetary authorities as much as you used to, because they now have to be very careful given the amount of fiscal stimulus in the economy. They can’t just cut rates because stocks go down. They can’t just cut rates because a bank is wobbling.”See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Enthusiasm for artificial intelligence has powered a breakneck rally in US equities this year, far overshadowing the US Federal Reserve’s campaign to raise interest rates. So how should investors sort out the fundamentals from the hype?Mark Baribeau, the head of global equity at PGIM’s Jennison Associates, joined the What Goes Up podcast to discuss how he’s viewing the opportunity. He’s the lead manager of the PGIM Jennison Global Opportunities Fund, which is beating 99% of its peers with a more-than 30% gain so far in 2023. “The infrastructure layer that allows for this accelerated computing to go on is the way to play AI right now. Because we’re in the R&D phase, the applications are just getting developed,” Baribeau says. “Nvidia is an easy example. We kind of refer to their earnings release on May 24 as the ‘Big Bang’ because, in my history of doing growth equities since the ‘90s, I’ve never seen a company raise guidance for a quarter by $4 billion. That’s unprecedented.”See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

According to Seema Shah, the chief global strategist for Principal Asset Management, the US economy will enter a recession, likely at the end of this year. Though she says it could be mild and short-lived. Shah joined the What Goes Up podcast to discuss why she thinks there will be a downturn, and why it could last just two quarters. Earnings have come down and could continue to do so, she says, which may “weigh on asset prices.” And while the labor market looks strong right now, she warns that it’s a lagging indicator and could weaken fairly quickly.  “I know a lot of people out there who are expecting recession—they expect it to come in Q3. I look at the labor market, the strength of it, and I say that that's almost impossible,” Shah says. “By Q4, we would expect fairly mild negative growth, and then in Q1, a deeper downturn. But then by Q2, this is back to recovery. So this is historically a very short recession and historically a very, very mild recession.”See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Artificial intelligence is all the rage on Wall Street. Some strategists see AI trends driving further gains for stocks as others point to how big banks are beginning to use it to automate some jobs. MarketReader, founded by Jens Nordvig, is leveraging AI to analyze US equity market trends and help predict why a stock might be moving a certain way. He joined the What Goes Up podcast to discuss how he sees AI helping investors digest information at a faster pace. “What’s happened this year is that actually applying AI has become so much easier than it was six months ago.” Nordvig says. “Our original plan was more focused on structural modeling, traditional fundamental modeling. But we’ve really seen how this actually allows us to do stuff that we just can’t do with traditional models.”See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Investing in farmland has historically offered an attractive and stable source of returns, yet it’s not an easy asset class for most investors to access. Carter Malloy founded a platform called AcreTrader in an effort to make it easier to purchase fractional ownership of a farm. He joined the What Goes Up podcast to discuss some of the benefits and risks of this type of farmland investing. “You don’t have big, huge up years and huge down years that you do across so many other mainstream asset classes,” Malloy says. “So the consistency of the returns and that relative lack of volatility—in investor speak, the Sharpe ratio—of farmland can be very, very attractive.”See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

A lot of investors are sitting on piles of cash. In fact, J.P. Morgan Wealth Management estimates its clients are more overweight with cash now than they’ve been in a decade.  But attractive buying opportunities could be lurking, including in fixed income, US mid-cap stocks and European equities, according to Chief Investment Strategist Tom Kennedy.  He joined the What Goes Up podcast to discuss corners of the market—in the US and abroad—that look enticing. He also talks about how Europe managed to avoid a recession, and why the US Federal Reserve is likely done with its hiking campaign, among other things.  “Cash very rarely outperforms, and it takes a long time for rates to go up, but they can come down really fast,” he said. “The last seven business cycles, when you have the last rate hike from the Fed, in the two years after that, cash tends to underperform duration assets.”See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

As the US government debt-ceiling standoff heats up and markets grow more volatile, veteran Loomis Sayles & Co. portfolio manager Elaine Stokes has some advice for investors in the corporate-bond market: Get ready to buy. Stokes joined the What Goes Up podcast to discuss the opportunities the drama in Washington may create, the potential for a credit crunch stemming from regional-bank turmoil, and how high-yield bonds may not be as risky as they seem, given recession concerns.  “The volatility that I think we’re going to have over the next couple weeks is going to be the opportunity. So take advantage of that opportunity to buy a little further out the curve, to buy low dollar-price bonds, to build in real return for a long time,” she said on the podcast. With regard to high-yield bonds, she added: “I don’t believe that this time around it’s going to be the traditional high-yield market that’s going to see the big wave of defaults. That is going to happen in either the bank-loan market or the private market. That’s where the weaker issuance has come, the lower-quality issuance. So the traditional high-yield market is actually setting up to look pretty attractive.”See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Brace for a US recession to start next quarter and worsen at the end of the year, and don’t bet on the Federal Reserve to react immediately to prop up growth. That’s according to Sarah House, senior economist at Wells Fargo & Co. She joined the What Goes Up podcast to give her appraisal of the economy, and discuss what to expect for the rest of 2023.“It’s likely to be kind of more of a slow drag in terms of economic activity, just given that we also don’t think the Fed’s going to be riding to the rescue as soon as you do see that weakness,” she said on the podcast. “The nature of the inflation that we’re seeing right now, we think that the Fed’s actually going to be pretty reluctant to ease policy even as the economy is entering a recession.”See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

While the drama surrounding regional US banks has largely subsided following the failure of three lenders in March, that doesn’t mean the ripple effects of Federal Reserve interest-rate hikes are over. This is according to Que Nguyen, chief investment officer of equities at Research Affiliates, who joined the What Goes Up podcast to give her outlook on markets and talk about why she doesn’t foresee a soft landing for the economy.“When the Fed raises rates and it breaks something, it rarely happens that it’s a very small break,” she says. “Usually it’s a very big break. And so while I’d never thought that we would get to a great-financial-crisis level of breakdown, I do believe—and I did believe, and I still believe—that there would be more things that break. Whether that continued to be in the small regional banks or whether that bled over to something else such as real estate lending, private credit—definitely those dangers still remain out there.”See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Runaway inflation. Surging interest rates. Bank failures. For a while it seemed like all of these issues would combine to trigger a US recession. Not so fast, says Morgan Stanley’s Seth Carpenter, the bank’s global chief economist. He joined the What Goes Up podcast to explain why there are signs the US could experience a “soft landing” that averts a major economic downturn.  “It seems hard to avoid the fact that the US economy is going to slow down, and part of the reason why that’s hard to avoid is because that is absolutely, categorically, by design the Fed’s objective,” he said. “We think they’re looking carefully at the data and asking, ‘Do we have enough evidence that things are slowing down a lot, but not yet crashing?’ Because that’s what they’re looking for in order to stop the hiking cycle. So we think the last hike is in May, when there’ll be more evidence of a slowdown, but not yet evidence that things have actually fallen off of a cliff.” See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Troy Gayeski, chief market strategist at FS Investments, says don’t wait until May to flee the stock market rally—get out now. He joined the What Goes Up podcast to explain why he’s expecting the S&P 500 to bottom out at around 3,200, a roughly 22% drop from current levels.“First of all, the strongest rallies have always been in bear markets,” he says. “Usually they’re driven by technical factors. And then there’s a narrative that’s put together to justify it: the more recent one was that inflation’s going to slow enough that the Fed won’t have to hike anymore, and then we’re going to have a recession and somehow that’s going to cause the Fed to cut rapidly. But recessions aren’t bad for revenue or earnings? It really makes very little sense.”See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

It’s not just the prospect of deteriorating fundamentals that has Man Group’s Mark Jones skeptical about stocks these days. It’s also the risk of money flowing into fixed-income investments now that they’re sporting attractive yields. Jones, who is the deputy chief executive of the world’s largest publicly traded hedge-fund manager, joined the What Goes Up podcast to give his outlook on markets and explain what strategies have been working well at his firm.“I think the risk-reward in equities is very, very tough at the moment,” he says. The first reason is a potential further cut in earnings expectations. Second is the flow of money into alternatives to stocks such as government bonds and corporate credit. “Whether that’s the consumer or whether that’s big institutional clients starting to come back to an asset class that, frankly, had fallen relatively out of favor, some of that flow of funds is also an issue for equities as just people move money around.”See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

If there’s one thing that keeps professional investors up at night, it’s being involved in a “crowded trade.” In other words, a position that’s become so popular that there are few investors left to get involved with it, so there’s risk of painful losses for all if the crowd heads for the exits.That’s part of the appeal of microcap stocks for Patrick McDonough, a portfolio manager at PGIM Quantitative Solutions. He joined the What Goes Up podcast to explain his approach to analyzing these smaller, younger companies whose values are often measured in millions, rather than billions, of dollars. Since many investors are more comfortable with bigger, more-established companies, microcaps offer a unique and overlooked source of growth.“It’s something that people have historically avoided,” McDonough says. “Which means it’s not crowded. So it’s an area we can go in and get a lot of upside.”See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

When Steve Sosnick recalls 2008 and tries to make parallels to the current turmoil in the banking sector, one memory sticks out: riding the elevator with Thomas Peterffy, founder of Interactive Brokers, who offhandedly asked him “what’s new?” “And I said, ‘what’s really interesting to me is the story that I’m reading this morning about how Bear Stearns may have as much as $20 billion in losses at some of their hedge funds,” recalled Sosnick, who’s currently chief strategist at Interactive. “And he said, ‘what’s their market cap?’ And I said, ‘I think about $20 billion.’” “‘Are you telling me Bear Stearns is broke?’” Peterffy asked. Sosnick recalls saying, “‘I guess I am, aren’t I?’” Sosnick joined the What Goes Up podcast to discuss what lessons from the 2008 financial crisis can be applied today. Though the current predicament isn’t similar to that period—banks are in much stronger positions and the economic backdrop is vastly different—it’s important to keep lessons learned in mind, he says.  “They say history doesn’t repeat, but it often rhymes,” Sosnick says. “And I think there’s a certain rhyme to it, but we’re not there yet. And I certainly hope we don’t get there.”See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Torsten Slok had been firmly in the “no landing” camp of economists. More positive than a “soft landing,” its adherents say the Federal Reserve will tame inflation without triggering a recession at all. But for Slok, chief economist of Apollo Global Management, that all changed with the failure of Silicon Valley Bank. Now he’s bracing for a “hard landing.” Slok joined the What Goes Up podcast to discuss the sizeable role regional banks play in the US economy, and the reasons why SVB’s collapse changed his outlook. A big reason is how regional banks may now change their behavior.“Regional banks make up 30% of assets and roughly 40% of all lending,” he explains. That big chunk of the US banking sector is now looking at what happened to SVB and worrying what comes next. With a slowdown potentially underway thanks to the central bank’s rate hikes, Slok warns a reluctance to lend by SVB’s mid-size brethren might mean it comes “faster simply because of this banking situation.”See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Jeremy Grantham blames the US Federal Reserve for creating a bubble in asset prices—one he says has a long way to go before it’s fully deflated. As a result, stock prices may not reach bottom until late next year, he warns. The 84-year-old co-founder of investment firm GMO joined the What Goes Up podcast to explain what he calls the current, “meat grinder” phase of the market, and why he believes the central bank has “hardly gotten anything right.”  “Since Alan Greenspan first arrived—Paul Volcker knew what he was doing—but since then it’s been a long, continuous horror show,” Grantham says of US monetary policy. “They’ve engaged in policies that drive up the prices of assets, other things being even, and create spectacular overpriced bubbles. They then break because that’s what bubbles have to do. They simply break of their own extreme overpricing, and we pay a very tough price.”Grantham also discusses broader market risks, including shortages of labor and natural resources, the climate crisis, de-globalization and a new version of the Cold War. “All of these long-term factors are beginning to bite,” he says. “This will make this particular down-leg more dangerous, and perhaps worse than we anticipated.”See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Princeton University’s Alan Blinder is one of the most prominent economists to have expressed optimism that the Federal Reserve can engineer a so-called “soft landing” for the US economy—taming inflation without triggering a recession. But Blinder, who served in the 1990s as a vice chair of the Fed and a member of the president’s Council of Economic Advisers, explains on this episode of What Goes Up why he’s toned down his assessment. A big reason is the change in the way the Bureau of Labor Statistics adjusts inflation data for seasonal factors, he says. The result is that, while inflation moderated in the second half of 2022, it didn’t cool off as quickly as previous data indicated. Blinder says that means there’s reason to expect more rate hikes from the Fed. “I think they still have a chance” at a soft landing, he concludes, “but it's a tougher chance than it was.”See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Exchange-traded fund managers have seen massive inflows into fixed-income ETFs in recent months. As the dust settles from the bond market’s worst year on record, ETFs focused on safe and simple Treasuries have attracted the bulk of the money. Stephen Laipply, the US head of fixed income ETFs at BlackRock, explains this state of affairs on the latest episode of the What Goes Up podcast.Many investors who follow a standard strategy of investing 60% of their portfolio in stocks and 40% in bonds have found it to be the right time to “fix” that 40% segment, Laipply says. “Investors are looking at this market, the public fixed-income markets, and realizing that they can ‘fix’ their 40 by de-risking it to varying degrees,” he says. “You don’t have to have the majority in high yield to get a certain yield target. You can allocate to the front end of the Treasury curve and get yields that you were seeing at some point in the high-yield market. So it really is an opportunity to get back to what that 40 was supposed to do, which is diversify your risk assets.”See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The stock market may be off to a great start in 2023, but investors should be “mindful about not being bullied” by the rally, says Wealth Enhancement Group’s Nicole Webb. She warns that it won’t last. The S&P 500 is up 7% so far this year, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 has surged roughly 15%. Webb, a senior vice president and financial adviser at the firm, joined the What Goes Up podcast to discuss her views on the market and the speediness of the recovery. “To us fundamentally, does technology make sense from a valuation standpoint?” she said. “Much of this rally in mega-technology—or if you even want to just call it a Nasdaq rally year to date—it’s a little bit of an unwinding of the selloff of last year, probably closely followed by a bit of a FOMO rally.” “We’re not bullish on the stickiness of this as we don’t see any type of Fed pivot” from rate hikes in the near term.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

ChatGPT has taken the internet by storm, spurring all manner of experiments and examination as to what extent the artificial-intelligence model can supplant humans and daily tasks. But it’s also being used on Wall Street, where a number of exchange-traded fund issuers, including State Street, have grasped onto the concept to help put together innovative products.  Matt Bartolini, head of SPDR Americas Research at State Street Global Advisors, joined the What Goes Up podcast to talk about using AI in portfolio construction. His firm’s SPDR S&P Kensho New Economies Composite ETF is up roughly 20% this year.  “The reason why we went down this path of using AI is that we wanted something forward looking—something dynamic—because back in 2018, we understood that, in the ETF world, there weren’t a lot of strategies that were this forward-looking, innovative-type paradigm,” Bartolini said. “The AI process was able to deliver that for us.” See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Morgan Stanley’s Jim Caron joined the What Goes Up podcast to dissect this week’s US Federal Reserve meeting and analyze how markets may have misinterpreted the message being sent by Chair Jerome Powell.“This is a guy who’s worried about inflation; this is somebody who’s not done tightening by any stretch of the imagination,” said Caron, the co-chief investment officer of Global Balanced Funds at Morgan Stanley Investment Management. But Powell’s comments triggered rallies in stocks and bonds amid speculation that the central bank was getting more dovish. “This is one of the risks that I think that we have coming up over the next few weeks,” Caron said. “That if the intended market reaction doesn’t match what the intended statement was supposed to convey, then, as is typical, there’s going to be some walking back of this.”See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The rare bright spots for investing last year were those strategies that follow trends in markets rather than fundamentals. This successful approach included the AlphaSimplex Managed Futures Strategy Fund, which returned more than 32% for the year. Kathryn Kaminski, chief research strategist and portfolio manager at AlphaSimplex Group, joined the What Goes Up podcast to discuss her firm’s strategies, and what she’s expecting in 2023.  “We do really well when there’s massive trends, when there’s dislocation, when things are uncomfortable,” she says. “And last year was definitely uncomfortable, particularly fixed income.” One development she expects may make investors uncomfortable this year is the likelihood that inflation bottoms out at around 4%, rather than the Federal Reserve’s target of 2%. At that point, Kaminski says, “the Fed either has to say, ‘well, we’re no longer going to try’ or ‘we’re going to have to keep trying.’ And people are not going to like that either. So I think that that’s the challenge.”See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The stock market got off to a roaring start this year with the S&P 500 at one point clocking a year-to-date gain of more than 4%. Truist Wealth Co-Chief Investment Officer Keith Lerner, however, is skeptical of the New Year bounce. He says the possibility of a recession and dwindling liquidity make the rally unsustainable. Lerner joined the What Goes Up podcast to explain why he’s advising clients to take a defensive posture with investments, and what he believes is the best way to execute that strategy. “Being defensive from a stock, bonds and cash perspective is being overweight fixed income relative to equities. And then—in the fixed-income component—keeping it simple: keeping it with high-quality fixed income and not really taking a lot of credit risk at this point.”See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Get ready for some bad earnings-season news. That’s the call from Savita Subramanian, the head of equity and quantitative strategy at Bank of America, who is expecting a 10% drop in earnings that will likely keep a lid on the S&P 500 in 2023.She joined the What Goes Up podcast to give her outlook for the market and explain why she thinks analysts’ earnings estimates are too high: “We are going to see those estimates come down, and it's likely to happen after companies guide more aggressively lower around 2023 earnings. I think where we're going to see pressures are in companies with more labor intensity, like services companies, companies where you're really seeing cost pressure remain high. Those are the areas where we think that we're going to see some downward guidance on margins.” See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The US Federal Reserve’s commitment to higher interest rates and the potential for a recession in 2023 will combine to damage corporate earnings—damage that likely will cause the stock market to revisit its bear-market lows, warns Jurrien Timmer, director of global macro at Fidelity Investments.  Timmer joined the What Goes Up podcast to discuss his outlook for the year, and explain why he thinks bonds will resume their role as a source of protection for investors in balanced portfolios. His take on stocks? This year “is going be kind of a choppy, sideways market where we’re going to revisit the lows maybe once or twice as the fear grows that there’s an earnings wave coming.”See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Before his FTX cryptocurrency empire collapsed, many of Sam Bankman-Fried’s public statements indicated that he made decisions “as though he had no risk aversion,” according to Victor Haghani, the founder and chief investment officer of Elm Partners Management and a co-founder of the Long-Term Capital Management hedge fund. Haghani joined the What Goes Up podcast to discuss how Bankman-Fried’s tolerance for risk made him highly unusual under the “theory of choice under uncertainty,” and how the causes of FTX’s implosion differ from what triggered the failure of LTCM. Haghani also discusses his own approach to assessing risk when investing client assets at Elm Partners. (Note: This episode was recorded in early December, before Bankman-Fried was indicted for his alleged role in FTX’s failure.)See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The decades-long trend of globalization has come to an end and the fracturing of geopolitics will have huge implications for capital markets and investing in 2023, according to strategists at JPMorgan Chase & Co. Jared Gross, head of institutional portfolio strategy at JPMorgan Asset Management, joined the What Goes Up podcast to discuss how everything from supply chains to industrial policy, energy and defense will feel the impact.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Don’t expect volatile equity-market swings to go away when the calendar flips to 2023, says Edward Jones senior investment strategist Mona Mahajan, who advises focusing on defensive and value stocks in the new year. But there is hope for later in the year, she says, when the market will be looking forward to lower inflation and a stabilizing US economy. Mahajan joined the What Goes Up podcast to discuss her outlook for next year and assess the market’s reaction to the latest message from the Federal Reserve to expect higher interest rates for longer. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Bonds are back—and they appear to be the preferred asset class as we head into the uncertain economic environment in 2023, according to Gargi Chaudhuri, head of investment strategy for the Americas at BlackRock’s iShares unit. She joined this week’s What Goes Up podcast to talk about her 2023 outlook, next week’s policy decision by the Federal Reserve and the appeal of not only safe Treasuries but some riskier mortgage securities.“It is so exciting, I think, to be in a world where there are some incredible opportunities staying very high in quality, short in duration, in the fixed-income markets,” she said. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Expectations that inflation will normalize to near 2% in the near term will “end in tears,” according to Vincent Deluard, the director of global macro strategy at brokerage StoneX Financial. He contends growth in consumer prices will remain closer to 5% for about a decade. Deluard joined the latest episode of the What Goes Up podcast to explain why he believes inflation will remain stubbornly high and what that would mean for markets. He also reveals what he calls “Silicon Valley’s Seven Deadly Sins.”See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The implosion of Sam Bankman-Fried’s FTX empire dealt a harsh blow to the Bahamas’ ambitions to be a hub for the crypto industry, and it’s causing massive pain for locals who treated the now-bankrupt exchange like a bank.Stephane Ouellette, chief executive of Toronto-based crypto firm FRNT Financial, traveled to the Bahamas to assess the fallout from the collapse. He joined the What Goes Up podcast to discuss the bankruptcy’s effect on the island nation it called home, as well as the impact the scandal is having on his business and the entire market. “FTX was positioning [itself] as a banking alternative, particularly in regions where they operated—like the Bahamas,” Ouellette said. “So there’s even more horror stories of people treating FTX like bank-like infrastructure, and therefore leaving a significant amount of their assets just latent on FTX. Now they can’t get access to them, just like everybody else.”See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The collapse of Sam Bankman-Fried’s FTX cryptocurrency empire was accelerated when the head of a rival exchange announced he was planning to dump holdings of something called FTT—a token created by FTX that afforded some perks to investors who owned it. At one point, the token was one of the 10 biggest coins in the market, which would have made it eligible for the Bitwise 10 Crypto Index Fund.However, Bitwise never added FTT to the fund. Matt Hougan, chief investment officer of Bitwise Asset Management, joined the What Goes Up podcast to discuss the damage caused by the implosion of FTX and explained why the fund snubbed its coin. “We look at assets that are at undue risk of being found in violation of federal securities laws,” he said. “FTT fell into that framework because we thought it was likely, or possible, to be deemed a security by regulators. And it was largely internally controlled, in our view.”See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

FTX Cryptocurrency Exchange rattled the financial world this week when a crisis of investor confidence triggered a run, forcing the company to scramble for a buyer or bailout to avoid collapse. Joining the What Goes Up podcast to discuss the chaos that ensued are Sadie Raney, chief executive of the crypto hedge fund Strix Leviathan, and Nico Cordeiro, its chief investment officer. The firm said it had a limited amount of funds with FTX frozen. “We’ve been through a number of market crashes,” says Raney. “We’ve used Voyager in the past. We also used BlockFi. And when there were some indicators that maybe they were, I guess you could say over their skis, we stopped trading with them.” “This one,” Raney said, “I don’t think anyone saw coming.” Cordeiro adds that while their firm has “some funds frozen there,” it was “a small portion of our portfolio allocated there—simply because this space is the wild west.”See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Cryptocurrency news this year has been filled with stories about how institutional investors are embracing digital assets. So if more big players are entering the space, why are prices for Bitcoin, Ether and other tokens so depressed compared with last year’s peaks? Leah Wald, chief executive of digital-asset investment firm Valkyrie Investments Inc., joined the What Goes Up podcast to share her thoughts on the topic. “Institutions have a longer time horizon. They also, as a fiduciary, cannot just jump in with a strategy,” Wald said. “There’s a lot of other hurdles that institutions have—whether it’s risk parameters, among others, and also just generally the vehicle that they need in order to buy it.” Wald also sheds light on the outlook for blockchain miners, use cases for crypto in developing markets and the prospects for a spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

There are better ways to combat inflation than destroying demand with interest-rate increases, according to Nela Richardson, chief economist for payroll giant Automatic Data Processing Inc. She joined the latest What Goes Up podcast to give her take on half-century record American employment, decades-high inflation and signs of softness in the US housing market. “It’s about productivity,” Richardson says. “Productivity grows you out of inflation when more workers produce more output for the same amount of cost. That’s what productivity is. That’s what gets you out of the inflation wage-price spiral conundrum.” But to do that, she says, business and government need to invest in jobs and workers—something they haven’t been good at recently. “It takes more partnerships with community colleges to build an agile and skilled workforce in the places that the economy needs it,” Richardson says.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The stock market has been getting very volatile as the US Federal Reserve continues its historic effort to squash rising prices. Proclamations from policymakers suggest the central bank won’t let up until inflation is under control—even if it means trouble for the economy. Officials may raise rates by another 75 basis points at their upcoming November meeting, and the same again in December, according to Kristina Hooper, chief global market strategist at Invesco. “Seventy five is the new 25,” she says. “When you are raising rates in 75-basis-point increments and you’re not giving any time for it to process through and make its way through into the data, you’re playing a dangerous game,” she says on the latest episode of What Goes Up. “And the more you’re doing it, the more likelihood you create of having a recession—and a significant recession.”See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Another hot inflation reading this week underscores the importance of the US Federal Reserve’s campaign to tame decades-high increases in consumer prices, with many market observers evoking the memory of a similar effort by the central bank’s larger-than-life former chairman, Paul Volcker. One key to Volcker’s success in the 1980s, achieved through interest-rate hikes and control of the money supply, was setting the appropriate expectations in the financial markets, according to Christine Harper, editor of Bloomberg Markets magazine and co-author of Volcker’s memoirs, Keeping at It: The Quest for Sound Money and Good Government. Harper joined the latest episode of What Goes Up to discuss her experience with Volcker, and what lessons learned from his time as Fed chief are useful today.   “Psychology was really important,” she said. “He really understood the psychology of investors, the psychology of consumers and business people. And so much of what he did, and the inflation fight, was basically around changing the psychology.”See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Institutional investors are playing a more-influential role in crypto markets as retail traders retreat, and that explains much of the recent range-bound price action, according to Michael Safai of proprietary trading firm Dexterity Capital.  “We might have been playing checkers two years ago,” said Safai, whose firm traded more than $1.2 trillion in crypto last year. “We’re playing chess now.”  Safai joined the What Goes Up podcast this week to discuss the state of the digital-asset market and how high-frequency crypto trading strategies differ from the famous “Flash Boys” of the stock market. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

UK Prime Minister Liz Truss triggered the latest wave of turbulence in global markets after announcing economic plans that include unfunded tax cuts. The move crushed the value of the pound while sending the already struggling country’s borrowing costs soaring.To Julian Emanuel, chief equity and quantitative strategist at Evercore ISI, the move was reminiscent of US tax cuts imposed under Ronald Reagan in the 1980s, what came to be known as “Reaganomics.” In both cases, the policy was at odds with moves by other nations’ efforts to combat high inflation. Emanuel joined this week’s What Goes Up podcast to discuss the latest bout of volatility across asset classes, and the role the new Tory leader has played in causing it. “It does represent a radical change in policy that is more evocative of Reagan,” he says. “And investors are going to have to get used to it.”See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Sometimes it feels like you need to be a rocket scientist to trade successfully in modern markets. Well, George Patterson used to be one, having began his career at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory before turning his attention to investing with quantitative strategies.Now he’s the chief investment officer of PGIM Quantitative Solutions, which oversees about $91.5 billion of PGIM’s $1.5 trillion in assets under management. Patterson joined the latest episode of the “What Goes Up” podcast to discuss his approach and share his thoughts on inflation, the Federal Reserve’s efforts to fight it, and what it all means for markets. Normalization of inflation will be a “multi-year trend,” he says.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

George Cipolloni’s son is a video-game aficionado, and the teenager’s language has clearly worn off on his father. Indeed, the portfolio manager at Penn Mutual Asset Management jokes he’s found a “cheat code” in the bond market that’s helped his balanced strategy beat its benchmark with a heavy allocation to high-yield corporate debt. But don’t be alarmed: His “code” is really just fundamental analysis used to find bonds with attractive yields, but little risk. Cipolloni joined the latest episode of “What Goes Up” to discuss the strategy and offer his reaction to the wild ride in markets following the surprise inflation report on Sept. 13. Some highlights of the conversation:  “So the ‘cheat code’ in the bond market for me and for our strategy is: Where can you limit risk or where can you lower risk in a high-yield security? Well, you can find certain smaller securities because we are a small fund at the moment and we can buy these smaller securities, smaller issues. And you can find companies that have more cash than debt on the balance sheet.” See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Selling bonds short—a trade that for decades hadn’t worked consistently—has helped fuel a 37% return so far this year for the managed-futures strategy fund at AlphaSimplex Group. And the trade looks like it has further to go, according to Kathryn Kaminski, chief research strategist at the quantitative-investing firm. She joined the “What Goes Up” podcast to discuss this and other market moves that have made trend following in futures markets such a lucrative strategy this year.  “The short-bond trade has more legs to run,” Kaminski says. “A lot of the core problems that have driven [markets] to the point where we are now have yet to be completely solved.”See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Rising food prices have been one of the big drivers of inflation this year as farmers across America were hit with price spikes for fertilizer and fuel. They’ve also been forced to grapple with lingering supply-chain issues and labor shortages. Brian Duncan, operator of a family farm and vice president of the Illinois Farm Bureau, joins this week’s episode of “What Goes Up” to talk about the agricultural commodities markets and offer his perspective on the US economy as he plans for next year’s crops.“I do not see our prices coming down anytime soon,” he says. “Remember how base-fossil fuel dependent agriculture is, both on the fuel side and on the fertilizer side. I don’t see a solution.”See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Jeremy Siegel, a longtime professor of finance at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School and author of “Stocks for the Long Run,” joined the latest episode of the “What Goes Up” podcast alongside Jeremy Schwartz, global chief investment officer at WisdomTree, to discuss the state of the economy, inflation and markets. Siegel also threw in some advice for retail traders caught up in the meme-stock craze. “I always recommend to young people, if you want to play with 10% or 15% of your portfolio in those games, fine. But, you know, put the other 85 into some sort of a long-term index fund that will have meaning for you when you finally become an adult,” he said. “Do not make that a big portion of your portfolio unless you have unbelievably excess money and you can afford to lose 80% of it.”See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

By mimicking strategies common among some quantitative hedge-fund firms, the iM DBi Managed Futures Strategy ETF has surged 21% so far this year—beating the S&P 500 Index by about 30 percentage points. Andrew Beer, one of the managers of the active exchange traded fund, joined the latest episode of the “What Goes Up” podcast to explain the secrets of its success amid a brutal year for both stocks and bonds. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The chief investment officer of Morgan Stanley Wealth Management has a warning for investors who are chasing the latest rally in stocks: Don’t get too excited about a potential peak in inflation after the consumer price index cooled off a bit in July. Lisa Shalett joined this week’s episode of the “What Goes Up” podcast to explain the firm’s cautious stance toward the market, and how CPI is still elevated enough that the Federal Reserve needs to continue lifting rates aggressively. “The direction is correct, but the levels are wrong,” she says of the latest inflation data. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Investors are turning to some thematic exchange-traded funds to hedge against inflation and take advantage of the renewed performance of value stocks this year, according to Jay Jacobs, US head of thematics and active equity ETFs at BlackRock. Jacobs joined the “What Goes Up” podcast to discuss how the firm is sizing up investing opportunities amid the uncertain economic outlook. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Mimi Duff, senior client adviser at the $3 billion registered investment adviser GenTrust, joined this week’s “What Goes Up” podcast to discuss the outlook for markets, the economy and borrowing costs following the latest Federal Reserve interest-rate increase and a second-straight quarter of negative economic growth. Duff also explains the rationale behind some of the more interesting investments her firm is excited about, including biotech and uranium exchange-traded funds. And she gives her thoughts on the bond market, and what areas of markets are attractive following this year’s selloff.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

While China’s stock market has been seen as a pariah by some global investors this year, Citigroup is taking a contrarian view, positing a bullish outlook for the nation’s equities even while favoring defensive stocks in the US.  Shawn Snyder, head of investment strategy at Citi US Wealth Management, joined the “What Goes Up” podcast to discuss how the firm is sizing up investing opportunities amid an uncertain economic outlook. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Mark Zandi, who has been an economist for more than three decades, says he’s never seen so many people convinced that a recession is imminent. And while he believes the US economy can still avoid an economic downturn, sentiment is so poor that it poses its own risks. Zandi, the chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, joined the “What Goes Up” podcast to discuss his outlook after government data this week showed the highest level of inflation in almost 41 years. “I talk to CEOs, CFOs, investors, friends, family—to the person, they think we're going into recession. I've never seen anything like it,” Zandi says. “When sentiment is so fragile, it’s not going to take a whole lot to push us in.”See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

During the day-trading craze that erupted amid the Covid-19 pandemic’s lockdowns, market professionals repeatedly warned a new flock of Reddit-reading, Robinhood-using retail investors that equity options were risky, and that bold bets in that market could end badly. It turns out their caution was spot on. Day-traders managed to lose more than $1 billion during the bull market, with the bill climbing to $5 billion when the cost of doing business with market-makers is factored in, according to Svetlana Bryzgalova, Anna Pavlova and Taisiya Sikorskaya of the London Business School. The three researchers joined the “What Goes Up” podcast to talk about the findings of their study, and discuss what retail traders need to know about options trading.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

It’s a common motto among investors: Cash is trash. But Oksana Aronov, head of market strategy, alternative fixed income at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, says not so fast. “I’ve been hearing about investors losing money sitting in cash, and that cash is trash for as long as I’ve been in this industry,” she said on this week’s episode of “What Goes Up.” “But the reality is that if you have been in cash for the last five years, you’ve essentially outperformed the Bloomberg Barclays aggregate index year to date, over one year, three years, and, depending on the day, yes, even five years.” Aronov says that risks are currently skewed to the downside, and that she and her team prefer to have a lot of liquidity in their portfolio because “it serves as a free option, essentially, on any asset class in the world.” Opportunities will come by, perhaps in the coming months. “For us, this is still a capital-preservation part of the cycle, although I think we’re closer to the end of it than we were a couple months ago.”See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Fiona Cincotta, senior financial markets analyst at City Index in London, joined this week’s “What Goes Up” podcast to discuss what she expects in markets, especially as US investors brace for what some say is the increasing potential for recession.“I think a ‘soft landing’ is optimistic—we’ll put it that way,” Cincotta says, adding that she puts the probability of a downturn in the near future at more than 50%. However, the still-hot American jobs market could ease the sting of any economic contraction. “It could be that the jobs market is actually the saving grace for the US economy,” she says.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Anastasia Amoroso, the chief investment strategist at iCapital, joined the latest episode of “What Goes Up” to discuss the market volatility that followed the US Federal Reserve’s interest-rate hike and how hedge funds are attracting client interest again after years of languishing in the bull market.  “In this environment, where nothing seems to be working, investors are looking for something that is—and right now that is in the hedge fund space,” she says. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

It’s a market environment that Alanis Morissette could write a verse about. Any positive upcoming US economic data may very well receive a poor reaction in the stock market, since it could embolden the Federal Reserve to continue its aggressive campaign to tame inflation. Anthony Saglimbene, global markets strategist at Ameriprise Financial, joined the latest episode of “What Goes Up” to discuss how to navigate a market where good news is bad news again. Isn’t it ironic?See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Wenting Shen, an analyst and portfolio manager at Harding Loevener, is traveling through China while navigating the country’s strict Covid-zero policies, visiting executives at the companies she covers to see how they’re faring. She joins the latest episode of “What Goes Up” to discuss what she’s learned on her trip, and how Covid-19 and the trade war begun by Donald Trump have altered China’s economy.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Victoria Greene, founding partner and chief investment officer at Texas-based G Squared Private Wealth, joined the latest episode of “What Goes Up” to discuss the mood of clients and why she thinks the 2022 market selloff isn’t over yet.“Not to sound like a snob, but I need a solid panic,” she says. “We just haven’t seen that solid, absolute capitulation—everything selling off. We aren’t there yet.” See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Daniel Yergin was at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum in 2013 when he got a daunting request: Could he pose the first question from the audience to Vladimir Putin?“I started to ask a question, I mentioned the word ‘shale,’” he recalls, referring to a once-unconventional source of oil and natural gas that by then was flowing freely in the US “And he started shouting at me, saying shale’s barbaric.”Yergin, the vice chairman of S&P Global, discussed the incident on the latest episode of “What Goes Up,” along with other insights from his book “The New Map: Energy, Climate, and the Clash of Nations.” American shale oil and gas has had a much bigger impact on geopolitics than people recognize, Yergin said. Even in 2013, it posed a threat to Putin in two ways: “One, because it meant that US natural gas would compete with his natural gas in Europe, and that’s what we’re seeing today. And secondly, this would really augment America’s position in the world and give it a kind of flexibility it didn’t have when it was importing 60% of its oil.”See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

As the Federal Reserve’s efforts to tame inflation roil both stocks and bonds, investors everywhere are struggling to figure out the best way to play defense in markets amid concerns that a recession is on the horizon. One of the top executives at Goldman Sachs Asset Management has a surprising idea: Beyoncé. Katie Koch, the chief investment officer for public equities at GSAM, quips that “Beyoncé is ultimately recession-resistant” and so are other popular artists. That’s why the portfolios she helps oversee own shares of live-concert companies in the U.S. and Europe. While Live Nation Entertainment Inc. got hit hard during last year’s Covid-19 lockdowns, she points out that the company actually weathered the previous recession well and managed to grow revenue in both 2008 and 2009. “So the consumer will spend in a recession,” she says, but “they'll be quite selective in terms what they spend on.” Another example is beauty products, she adds. And Koch doesn’t buy the notion that China is uninvestable: “You can buy assets here in the US as well as assets in China that are overly discounted for something that we know is eventually going to work out, which is that the economy will reopen” Koch joined this this week’s episode of the “What Goes Up” podcast to discuss the state of play in markets and why -- despite share prices that have crashed over the past year -- investing in innovative companies is still a good idea for the long term.  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The U.S. Federal Reserve’s effort to tame inflation with aggressive interest-rate hikes has some investors worried that a recession is inevitable, leading to a plunge in stock prices this year. Not so fast, says Jeremy Zirin, senior portfolio manager and head of private client U.S. equities at UBS Asset Management. Zirin joined the latest episode of What Goes Up to discuss his outlook for markets and the economy, and why he thinks the probability of a soft landing and longer expansion is higher than many believe. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan famously used the phrase “irrational exuberance” to describe the euphoric investor sentiment that sent tech stocks soaring in the late 1990s. And everyone knows what happened next, when that exuberance wore off. Now, history is repeating itself when it comes to some of the disruptive and innovative companies that were market darlings during the lockdown phase of the pandemic, but have since been clobbered by a “dose of realism,” according to Aoifinn Devitt, chief investment officer at Moneta Group Investment Advisors.Devitt joined this week’s “What Goes Up” podcast to discuss this and other hot topics in markets, such as inflation, rates and the outlook for consumer spending. It’s not all bad news for the disrupters of the corporate world, however. They’re still darlings of venture capital markets and, she adds, “I don't think that our fascination and our obsession with innovation is likely to go away anytime soon.”See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Investors have a lot to worry about: Russia’s war on Ukraine, inflation, Covid-19 and China’s lockdowns reigniting supply-chain woes— the list goes on. As a result, many money managers have ratcheted down their expectations for stock returns this year. But what if fears of a possible U.S. recession are overblown, and the second half turns out better than expected? Given still-strong earnings from corporate America, things may not end up as bad as some are predicting. Sylvia Jablonski, chief executive and co-founder of Defiance ETFs, joins this week’s episode of What Goes Up to talk about a potentially rosier future. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

It’s been difficult for even the most-seasoned veterans to discern a market message right now. Oil’s up one day and stocks fall. The next day, crude prices rise and so do stocks. Or bonds rally, and so do equities, and then the reverse happens just a few days later. Peter van Dooijeweert, managing director of multi-asset solutions at Man Group, joined this week's "What Goes Up" podcast to talk about that and the right asset classes to be in as the Federal Reserve continues its fight against inflation.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Adam Posen, president of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, joined this week’s “What Goes Up” podcast to discuss how Russia’s invasion of Ukraine threatens to further separate the world’s economies, and how a 20-year-long backlash to globalization is causing the U.S. to fall behind. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

David Bianco, chief investment officer of the Americas for fund manager DWS Group, joined the “What Goes Up” podcast to discuss his cautious near-term outlook for the stock market: “We're quite concerned about the longevity of this cycle. I feel as if this cycle has aged quickly. It's aged mostly from very high inflation, much earlier than you typically see in the first couple of years of a new economic expansion.”See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Dave Olsen, president and chief investment officer of Jump Trading Group, joined this week’s “What Goes Up” podcast to discuss his firm’s investment in cryptocurrency markets, and why it spent $320 million to rescue a project called Wormhole after hackers made off with 120,000 tokens known as “wrapped Ether.” See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by a quarter percentage point and signaled that six more such increases are likely this year—essentially fulfilling what markets were already pricing in. Bloomberg’s Edward Harrison and Ben Emons of Medley Global Advisors join this week’s “What Goes Up” podcast to discuss the ramifications of the expected Fed move for financial markets.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The OPEC+ oil cartel may not ramp up oil production enough to offset the loss of Russian supply that has sent crude above $100 a barrel, according to Javier Blas. Blas, the co-author of “The World For Sale: Money, Power, and the Traders Who Barter the Earth’s Resources” and a Bloomberg Opinion columnist, joined this week’s “What Goes Up” podcast to discuss the global energy supply shock. One highlight of the conversation: “Putin has been talking to Mohammed bin Salman, who is the crown prince of Saudi Arabia. And they have been talking about energy and energy cooperation. So I think that OPEC may not come to the rescue this time, just because they're just working with the Russians.”See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

When assessing what a political leader is going to do, Marko Papic doesn’t pay much attention to what the person’s desires are. Instead, he looks at what he calls “material constraints.” In other words, what factors will limit the leader’s ability to get what he or she wants. To Papic, the chief strategist at hedge-fund seeding firm Clocktower Group, Russia’s Vladimir Putin is ignoring his material constraints with the invasion of Ukraine. And ultimately, he says, that could lead to Putin’s downfall. Papic joined the “What Goes Up” podcast to discuss the war and its effects on markets. “I give Putin 12 months, and I’m taking the under,” said Papic, the author of “Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.”See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Meltem Demirors, chief strategy officer at CoinShares International Ltd., joined the “What Goes Up” podcast to discuss this year’s collapse in cryptocurrencies and how traditional financial institutions are growing more comfortable with the asset class’s volatility.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Peter Atwater, the consultant and finance professor who coined the phrase “K-shaped recovery” to describe the rebound from the 2020 recession, joined the “What Goes Up” podcast to discuss how a wide disparity in consumer confidence could affect the economy and markets. One thing that’s caught his eye lately: A troubling move out of stock-market investing and into online gambling among young people.  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

We’ve all heard it a million times: stocks got really expensive in the post-financial crisis bull market, especially when looking at cyclically adjusted valuation metrics that include corporate earnings over the past decade. But what should investors do with that information? Victor Haghani, founder and CIO of Elm Wealth — and one of the founding partners of Long-Term Capital Management — joins this week’s “What Goes Up” to weigh in, discuss recent market volatility and much more.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Crypto was red-hot in 2021 — so much so that it spawned a whole ecosystem of related products, including the first Bitcoin futures exchange-traded fund in the U.S. But can companies maintain enthusiasm for the growing industry as prices tumble in the new year? Hany Rashwan, co-founder and CEO of 21Shares, a provider of crypto exchange-traded products, joins this week's "What Goes Up" to talk about that and his company's plans for expanding its own offerings.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The balanced-portfolio strategy known as risk parity, which typically relies on investing in both stocks and bonds, needs to adapt as both asset classes come under pressure in a rising-rate environment, according to Max Gokhman, the chief investment officer at AlphaTrAI Inc. Gokhman joined the "What Goes Up" podcast to discuss this and other current market topics, as well as how his firm is applying artificial intelligence to investing.  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Morgan Stanley’s Andrew Slimmon joined the “What Goes Up” podcast to discuss how loading up on cyclical stocks helped the MSIF U.S. Core Portfolio mutual fund that he co-manages post a 36% return in 2021, and how he’s reluctant to buy the dip in high-growth stocks because “once the fever breaks, it lasts a long time.”See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Technology stocks have gotten clobbered this year, and investor attention has focused on rising interest rates as the reason behind it. But that’s not the whole story, says Bloomberg Intelligence Chief Equity Strategist Gina Martin Adams.On this episode, she helps dissect the shifting leadership in the U.S. stock market and shares her thoughts on an upcoming earnings season that—thanks to inflation, supply chain chaos and other pandemic fallout—remains shrouded in mystery.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Wells Fargo’s head of equity strategy Chris Harvey joined the “What Goes Up” podcast to discuss why he’s predicting a 10% market correction by the summer and share his thoughts on the volatility that followed this week’s Federal Reserve meeting minutes. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

It was another winning year for John Authers’s Hindsight Capital LLC! The Bloomberg columnist and senior editor joined this week’s “What Goes Up” podcast to discuss how it only took a little imagination – and a lot of hindsight – to make some triple-digit winning trades at his make-believe hedge fund.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Bloomberg’s managing editor for cryptocurrency coverage, Stacy-Marie Ishmael, joined this week’s “What Goes Up” podcast to discuss the wild year in crypto and what she’ll be watching going into 2022.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

UBS Asset Management strategist Luke Kawa joined this week’s “What Goes Up” podcast to discuss his team’s outlook for 2022, as well as the market’s reaction to plans by the Federal Reserve to reduce asset purchases and eventually raise interest rates.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

FTX is a phenom in the world of crypto exchanges. The company has grown tremendously since its inception a few years ago. This week, Sam Bankman-Fried, founder and chief executive officer of the cryptocurrency exchange, testified to Congress about how the space should be regulated. The next day, Bankman-Fried and FTX US President Brett Harrison joined Bloomberg’s “What Goes Up” podcast to talk about that and more.Mentioned in this podcast:Crypto: Best Photos of 2021Key Takeaways From Crypto Stablecoin Hearing Before House Panel FTX’s Bankman-Fried on Crypto Regulation, Solana Meltdown, NFTsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Investors’ imagination often goes to “dark places” in the face of uncertainty around issues like the new Covid variant and this week they might have overreacted, according to Kara Murphy, the chief investment officer of Kestra Investment Management who joined Bloomberg’s “What Goes Up” podcast to discuss the wild week in markets.Mentioned in this podcastHawkish Jerome Powell Is a Force Markets Haven’t Faced in Three YearsValue Quant Trade Drops Near 1970s Lows in Covid Crash EchoOmicron Variant Turns Traders Back Into Amateur VirologistsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Wall Street forecasters have been saying all year that a slowdown in the bull market might be in the cards thanks to inflation and growth concerns. The average projection from strategists for the S&P 500 at the end of 2022 represents a mere 3% advance from current levels. Candice Bangsund, vice president and portfolio manager of global asset allocation at Fiera Capital, joins “What Goes Up” this week to talk about her outlook for the upcoming year and the risks she sees ahead.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

A stellar year for the stock market is coming to a close and money-managers are looking ahead to what 2022 might have in store. But worries persist, including the perennially nagging question of whether the stock market is overvalued and in a bubble. Sébastien Page, head of global multi-asset at T. Rowe Price, talks about his views on that, his team’s current strategy, the need for diversification and his year-ahead outlook.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Steve Kurz, head of asset management at Michael Novogratz’s crypto firm Galaxy Digital, discusses how pensions, endowments and other institutional investors are approaching the digital-asset class.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Rob Arnott, chairman and founder of Research Affiliates, discusses how he identifies stock-market bubbles and how to use valuation gaps to identify attractive equities.  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This week, U.S. economic growth came in lower than expected, some high-profile companies posted disappointing earnings results and central banks worldwide took steps toward withdrawing pandemic-era stimulus. Yet stocks are broaching new records and October shaped up to be the best month of the year. To Wall Street veteran Doug Ramsey, Leuthold Group chief investment officer and co-manager of the Leuthold Core Fund, it looks like the market melt-up has just begun. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Dave Abner, global head of business development at crypto exchange Gemini Trust Co. and a two-decade veteran of the ETF industry, talks about the launch of Bitcoin futures exchange-traded funds, who’s buying into it and what the prospects are for a physically-backed crypto fund. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Halloween is coming, so it’s time to confront a common source of fear: bank stocks.Ever since the global financial crisis, many investors have been terrified of risks associated with lenders, according to Chris Davis, chairman and portfolio manager at Davis Advisors. He joined the latest episode of the “What Goes Up” to discuss why it’s time get over that phobia, explaining that banks may continue to help lead the market higher. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

On Breakthrough, a new series from the Prognosis podcast, we explore how the pandemic is changing our understanding of healthcare and medicine. We start with an examination of long Covid, a mysterious new illness that has stumped doctors attempting to treat symptoms that last for months and potentially years. It has changed the way hospitals work and forced healthcare officials to prepare for the next pandemic. Covid has also opened the door to revolutionary technology: messenger RNA vaccines. It’s a technology that never could have been proven so quickly outside the crucible of that first pandemic year, 2020, and it holds big implications for the future of medicine. Breakthrough launches on Oct. 19. Subscribe today on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Up 1% one day, down an equal amount the next, the stock market’s been serving up a bout of volatility traders haven’t seen all year. There’s plenty to worry about and, by many measures, pessimism among investors is growing.Lori Calvasina, RBC Capital Markets’ head of U.S. equity strategy and a two-decade Wall Street veteran, talks about the mood of the market, value versus growth, why the debt-ceiling reaction was surprising to her and why small-cap stocks can do well going forward – regardless of their earnings trends.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Treasury yields started to spike soon after the Federal Reserve signaled it’s edging closer to winding down its pandemic-era bond buying. But can stocks do well in that type of environment? Brian Nick, chief investment strategist at Nuveen, talks about that and what the surge in yields is signaling about the well-being of the economy. Plus, he shares his current strategy and discusses areas of the market he finds attractive.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Non-fungible tokens, or NFTs, went from non-existent to taking over the world in record fashion. But what is their utility besides being collectibles? Brian Mosoff, chief executive officer at Ether Capital, talks about how something can "meme" its way into becoming valuable and why NFTs are gaining traction in an environment where everyone's searching for scarcity. Plus, he shares his views on how cryptocurrencies can play a part in a portfolio and how the space could be regulated.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Stocks tied to the economic reopening had a banner 2020 before their performance petered out a few months ago. But Andrew Slimmon, a senior portfolio manager at Morgan Stanley Investment Management who oversees around $7.5 billion, is making big bets on reopening plays, banks and other value stocks. He talks about his strategy and goes into why the market's not had a significant pullback this year. Plus, he discusses the one catalyst he thinks could throw the rally off course. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

El Salvador is not a nation that comes up in global-macro investing discussions very often, but its embrace of Bitcoin as legal tender marks an interesting milestone in the evolution of the cryptocurrency’s role in financial markets. Ben Emons, strategist at Medley Global Advisors, joined this week’s “What Goes Up” podcast to discuss El Salvador’s embrace of Bitcoin and correlations it’s exhibiting with other parts of the market. He also discusses the European Central Bank’s decision to reduce asset purchases, and he shares some current stock-market strategies.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Some economic reports are coming in weaker than expected as the back-to-normal recovery drags on. To many investors, it means the Federal Reserve will keep the punch bowl fuller for longer. Kim Forrest, founder and chief investment officer at Bokeh Capital Partners, discusses about why bad news can be seen as good news again in this environment and why she prefers tech stocks for the long run.Mentioned in this podcast:U.S. Companies Add Fewer Jobs Than Forecast, ADP Data ShowMegacaps Hit All-Time High in Defensive Stock Tilt: Markets WrapSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Extraordinary loose monetary policy has led to what Interactive Brokers Chief Strategist Steve Sosnick calls a “flight to crap,” or investor interest in the most-speculative corners of financial markets. He discusses how the likely reduction in bond purchases by the Federal Reserve could affect those investments. He also shares his thoughts on how algorithmic trading strategies interact with meme stocks and delves into other market topics.Mentioned in this podcast:Powell Says Taper Could Start in 2021, With No Rush on Rate HikeU.S. Stocks Rise on Powell’s Dovish Taper Tone: Markets WrapWhat’s a Taper, and Why Is the Fed So Focused on One?Wall Street During the Pandemic: The Impossible Is Now CommonplaceSupport.com Surges 400% in Meme Army’s New Short-Squeeze AttackSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The rebound in the stock market from the pandemic-induced recession has been breathtaking, with the S&P 500 doubling from its low point in March 2020. Has the proverbial “easy money” all been made? Emily Roland, co-chief investment strategist at John Hancock Investment Management, discusses what to expect in the second year of the bull market. She also talks about the outlook for interest rates and inflation and a host of other current market topics. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Many traders expected this summer to be a volatile one for U.S. markets, but so far it’s been quiet as can be. What happened? Chris Gaffney, head of world markets at TIAA Bank, joins the “What Goes Up” podcast to discuss. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chris Mack, a portfolio manager at Harding Loevner, discusses his firm’s investment process and how his fund's hunt for “under-the-radar growth” stocks led him to some regional banks. He also discusses the defensive aspects of tech stocks in the age of Covid, and developments in the semiconductor industry, among other topics.Mentioned in this podcast:No Market Breadth, No Problem as Faangs Lift S&P 500 Higher​​​​​​​See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The attention of global investors returned to China this week as a crackdown on for-profit education companies triggered a massive selloff in the nation’s equity market. Jason Hsu, founder and chief investment officer of Rayliant Global Advisors, discusses how investors should navigate through the nation’s regulatory risks, and how the dominance of retail traders gives China’s market a “casino feel.”  Mentioned in this podcast:China Bans For-Profit School Tutoring in Sweeping OverhaulWe Don’t Need No (For Profit) Education. ESG, China-StyleSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Rebecca Patterson, director of investment research at Bridgewater Associates, discusses the reversal in some of the market moves triggered by optimism about the reopening of economies shut down by the Covid-19 pandemic. She also gives her take on inflation risks, the delta variant of the virus, and Bridgewater’s famous All Weather balanced-portfolio strategy.Mentioned in this podcast:A Sloppy Summer for Stocks Is Going to Test Your StomachThis Cult Classic Buy Signal Isn't to Be TrustedSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

What is the point of creating synthetic stocks and ETFs to trade on the blockchain with cryptocurrencies? Do Kwon, co-founder and CEO of Terraform Labs, explains how mirrored assets like these work, what type of demand they can fill, and potential regulatory pitfalls. Also joining this episode is Kwon’s collaborator Zaki Manian, co-founder of Iqlusion and the Sommelier Protocol. The pair also discuss the effects of crypto scams on the world of decentralized finance, and why a novelty token like Dogecoin became such a big hit.Mentioned in this podcast:Fake Tesla, Apple Stocks Have Started Trading on BlockchainsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Well, so much for that reflation and reopening trade. David Bianco, chief investment officer for the Americas at DWS Group, discusses why high-growth, digitally focused companies are back on the stock market’s leaderboard. Mentioned in this podcast:The Great Reflation Trade Is Buckling Around the WorldSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

It’s the top question on the minds of everyone involved in the markets these days: How long is “transitory” when it comes to the Federal Reserve’s view on hotter-than-normal inflation? Jim Smigiel, chief investment officer at SEI Investments, discusses why his firm is “happy to take the side of an overshoot” when it comes to rising prices. He also discusses the flaws of simplistic 60/40 investing and how there’s more to building a diversified portfolio than just buying an index.  Mentioned in this podcast:Powell Has Wall Street Buying View That Inflation Won’t LastYour Unloved Heirlooms Might Mean Serious MoneyCar Dealers Are Selling More Vehicles Above the Sticker PriceAn NFT of the World Wide Web Source Code Sold for $5.4 MillionSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Dimensional Fund Advisors, which manages $637 billion, was one of the first firms to take seminal academic financial research off of the campus and put it to work in the real-world art of managing money. How does a head-in-the-books firm like that respond now that retail day traders are in the driver’s seat and the market action often feels like a frat party rather than a lecture hall? Wes Crill, the head of strategists at Dimensional, talks about that as well as a variety of other market topics, such as the rotation back into growth from value and how to read the inflation tea leaves. Mentioned in this podcast:Dimensional Converts $29 Billion of Mutual Funds Into ETFsFed Satisfies Inflation Hawks Without Lifting a FingerSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

A few dots moved higher on a Federal Reserve chart of interest rate projections, and it caught many investors by surprise. Yet the hawkish turn tamped down market-based readings of inflation expectations and that could help the central bank keep stimulative policies in place longer, according to Brent Schutte, chief investment strategist at Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management Co. He discusses the dot-plot shocker and what it means for allocation decisions.Mentioned in this podcast:Risk and Opportunity in a Post-Pandemic EconomyFed Sees Two Rate Hikes by End of 2023, Inches Toward TaperSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

What generation will drive the consumer economy and create stock-market winners in the post-pandemic world? Lauren Hill, a portfolio manager and analyst at Westwood Holdings Group Inc., says it will be a boom led by Baby Boomers, who have the most wealth and high vaccination rates. She discusses where consumer spending is headed and what stocks are poised to benefit the most. Mentioned in this podcast:Treasury Yields Slip Below 1.5% as Inflation Fears EbbGap’s Deal With Kanye West Starts With a Single $200 JacketSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

They’re baaaaack! Day-trader cult stocks like AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc. are dominating investors’ attention once again, with eye-popping rallies and crashes and even some free popcorn thrown in for those with the gumption to ride the rollercoaster. Kevin Russell, the chief investment officer of the $9 billion hedge-fund manager UBS O’Connor, discusses how his team tries to stay a million miles away from these companies. Russell also details the bull case for China, his outlook on inflation, and some big winning pair trades made at the height of the Covid-19 crisis.Mentioned in this podcast:AMC Looks Less Like a ‘Cult Stock’ and More Like an Actual CultMeme Mania Rekindles Small-Trader Love Affair With OptionsAMC Stock Sale Comes With Warning to Traders: Be Prepared to Lose It AllBiden to Amend Trump’s China Blacklist, Target Key IndustriesSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Seema Shah, chief strategist at Principal Global Investors in London, discusses the state of the global economy and why the equity rally seems to have hit the snooze button. The U.S. has reached “peak recovery” following the pandemic, she says, yet fundamentals remain strong so cyclical and financial stocks should continue doing well. Mentioned in this podcast:RETHINK THE 40 IN YOUR 60-40 PORTFOLIORadioactive Rhino Horns Set to Add to Anti-Poaching ArsenalSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

For years, cryptocurrencies were considered fringe investments on Wall Street, but this week a massive intraday plunge in Bitcoin corresponded with a big drop in the stock market. Has crypto contagion arrived in the financial system? Art Hogan, chief strategist at National Securities, discusses this, and reminisces about the crash of 1987 when he found himself knee-deep in ticker tape at the old Boston Stock Exchange.Mentioned in this podcast:Bitcoin Rally Was So Huge It Was Worth the Risk-Adjusted TwistsMarkets’ Frothy Edge Rattled in Rough Day for Bets on InnovationBitcoin Whipsaws Investors With Same-Day Plunge, Rally of 30%See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

A shockingly high reading in the consumer price index landed with a bang in markets this week. Zachary Griffiths, a macro strategist with Wells Fargo, joined the “What Goes Up” podcast to discuss what inflation pressures he’s got his eye on and why he doesn’t think the latest numbers will cause the Federal Reserve to begin tapering its pace of asset purchases before the beginning of next year.   See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Vincent Deluard, director of global macro strategy at the brokerage StoneX Group, discusses how Mexico and Canada may be primed to benefit from the continued reopening of the U.S. economy following the pandemic.Mentioned in this podcast:Did Capitalism Kill Inflation?Space Aged: Bottle of Wine from Space Station Could Sell for $1 MillionSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Greg Jensen, the co-chief investment officer for the hedge-fund manager Bridgewater Associates, discusses this week’s Federal Reserve meeting and the firm’s approach to identifying excesses and bubbles in financial markets.Mentioned in this podcast:Fed Upgrades View of Economy While Keeping Rates Near ZeroPowell Breaks Out the ‘Froth’ Word When Asked About MarketsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist at Charles Schwab, joined the latest episode of the “What Goes Up” podcast to discuss what appears to be a shift in focus among the crowds of new day traders who were so influential in the U.S. stock market earlier this year. Says Sonders: “Really since mid-February, we've seen a shift — believe it or not — back toward some semblance of fundamentals driving stocks; a bit more of a quality bias, profitability bias, a little bit of a valuation bias.”See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Economic growth in 2021 is forecast to be unlike anything seen in the last several decades as the world begins to return to normal following the Covid-19 pandemic. Gaurav Mallik, chief portfolio strategist at State Street Global Advisors, joins the latest “What Goes Up” podcast to discuss what to expect and how he’s advising investors to allocate portfolios. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

He was one of the first money managers to deploy factor-investing strategies at his firm Gerstein Fisher, but now Gregg Fisher is trying something new: A quantitative approach to picking stocks of innovative small-cap companies at his new shop Quent Capital. Fisher joined this week’s “What Goes Up” podcast to discuss why he’s shifting to a more-active style of investing and how, despite his subsequent success, he wishes he could buy back that old drum set he sold for $900 in order to purchase a computer and start his first firm in the 1990s.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The swift rise in Treasury yields that triggered some wild swings in the stock market stopped this week – at least temporarily. Shawn Snyder, the head of investment strategy at Citi Personal Wealth Management, joins the “What Goes Up” podcast to discuss what caused yields to cool off and what to expect next.  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Financial markets have become obsessed with the possibility of faster-than-normal inflation this year as economies reopen from Covid lockdowns. But inflation is a nuanced concept, so what different types of price rises should we expect? And most importantly, what does it all mean for markets in 2021? Joining the "What Goes Up" podcast this week to discuss this and other timely market topics is Philip Lawlor, head of global investment research at FTSE Russell.Mentioned in this podcast:Market Brawl Breaks Out Ahead of Fed With Tech, Bitcoin Battered15th century bowl found at yard sale sells for $722,000See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

A few decades ago, nobody really questioned vaccines. They were viewed as a standard part of staying healthy and safe. Today, the number of people questioning vaccines risks prolonging a pandemic that has already killed hundreds of thousands of Americans. How we got to this moment didn’t start with the rollout of vaccines or in March 2020, or even with the election of Donald Trump. Our confidence in vaccines, often isn't even about vaccines. It’s about trust. And that trust has been eroding for a long time. Doubt, a new series from Bloomberg’s Prognosis podcast, looks at the forces that have been breaking down that trust. We'll trace the rise of vaccine skepticism in America to show how we got here — and where we’re going. Doubt launches on March 23. Subscribe to Prognosis today on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Bond yields are rising, commodity prices are jumping, and stock markets around the globe are soaring. To David Adams, the chief investment officer at Reminiscent Capital, it all adds up to a single message: Central banks around the world have just gone too far. Based in Sydney, Australia, Adams discusses the implications.Mentioned in this podcast:An NFT Sold for $69 Million, Blasting Crypto Art Records‘Dude, Get Back to Your Desk’: The Week That Roiled Bond MarketsNothing the Stock Market Does Ever Scares Its Retail DaredevilsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

More than 150 years after the end of slavery in the U.S., the net worth of a typical white family is nearly six times greater than that of the average Black family. Season 3 of The Pay Check digs into into how we got to where we are today and what can be done to narrow the yawning racial wealth gap in the U.S.Jackie Simmons and Rebecca Greenfield co-host the season, which kicks off with a personal story about land Jackie's family acquired some time after slavery that they're on the verge of losing. From there the series explores all the ways the wealth gaps manifests and the radical solutions, like affirmative action, quotas, and reparations, that can potentially lead to greater equality.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The flattening of the Covid case curve and the re-opening of economies around the world is causing big ripples in the stock market, with investors selling off the Internet-based companies that led the market higher during lockdown. Susan Schmidt, head of U.S. equities at Aviva Investors in Chicago, discusses this and other hot topics for investors, including the recent jump in interest rates.Mentioned in this podcast: Stock Market Momentum Comeuppance Gets No Sympathy From the Fed Cathie Wood’s ARKK Struggles in Early Trading After 20% RetreatThe tragic life and death of a ‘National Lampoon’ legendSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The surge in Treasury yields this week caught a lot of investors off-guard, triggering a bout of volatility in the stock market. Amanda Agati, chief investment strategist for PNC Financial Services Group, shares how government spending packages are affecting interest rates. She also discusses how she looks at alternative high-frequency economic data and why she’s bullish on emerging markets.Mentioned in this podcast:In a Flash, U.S. Yields Hit 1.6%, Wreaking Havoc in Markets GameStop’s Reddit-Driven Roller-Coaster Rages On as Volume SoarsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Marko Papic, partner and chief strategist at hedge-fund seeder Clocktower Group, discusses how the current economic and market cycle will be vastly different than the tepid recovery from the global financial crisis. He jokingly uses slogans from Reddit’s WallStreetBets forum to describe the risk-taking posture he believes investors will maintain amid a period of fiscal largesse: “All I know is that for the next two years, it’s like diamond hands and to the moon.”Mentioned in this podcast:The Bubble's Final Paroxysm May Be Months AwayGet Ready for the Great U.S. Inflation Mirage of 2021See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The dislocations in markets last year created a fleeting opportunity to buy stocks that pay big dividends on the cheap. Sorting through which companies had the wherewithal to weather the pandemic and keep the payments flowing was not an easy feat, however, given the unprecedented economic shutdown and uncertainty about how long the virus would affect various types of businesses.Joining this week’s podcast to discuss his process for evaluating dividends – in normal times and crazy times – is Chris D’Agnes, a portfolio manager at Hamlin Capital Management, an income-focused investment advisory firm that oversees about $4.8 billion in separately managed accounts and an equity mutual fund.  Mentioned in this podcast:Tilray Plunges Most on Record as Cannabis Stocks TumbleDogecoin’s Creator Is Baffled by Meteoric Rise to $9 BillionSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Like a lot of parents these days, Cameron Crise is dealing with a teenager at home who wants to get into day-trading and reap the type of the windfalls boasted about by the WallStreetBets crowd.Crise, a former hedge-fund trader and now a strategist at Bloomberg who writes the “Macro Man” column, had a novel way of handling the situation. Inspired by the classic movie “Trading Places,” he proposed a $1 bet on where GameStop shares were headed and another wager that his son Patrick could not double his money in three days with some Reddit-inspired paper trading that didn’t actually put any of the son’s – or more importantly, father’s -- money at risk in the market.Who won this battle of Macro Man vs. YOLO Boy? Tune in to find out!Mentioned in this podcast:Meme Stocks Lose $167 Billion as Reddit Crowd Preaches DefianceReddit’s Market ‘Hype Machine’ Is in a Quest to Drive Out BotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The drama surrounding GameStop Corp. and other high-flying stocks targeted by social media-influenced traders has triggered a debate about behavior in markets and what regulators should do about it.Larry Tabb, the head of market-structure research at Bloomberg Intelligence, discusses this issue as well as the role clearing firms played in causing Robinhood and other brokerages to restrict trading in certain stocks.Mentioned in this podcast:In 11 Hours of Pure Mania, 100% Stock Gains Popped Up EverywhereHow a Penny Stock Explodes From Obscurity to 451% Gains Via Chat ForumsReddit Jolts Activist-Short Hedge Funds Into ‘Adapt or Die’ ModeWallStreetBets Briefly Goes Dark After Fueling GameStop’s SurgeBattle Between Hedge Funds and Day Traders Creates Record VolumeSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Why does Tesla joining the S&P 500 remind Wells Fargo Securities’ head of equity strategy of AOL and the dot-com boom and bust era? He also explains why he’s sticking with his year-end estimate of 3,850 for the S&P 500 even after the benchmark index reached that level in the first month of the year.Mentioned in this podcast:GameStop Record Surge Gives Win to Reddit Army in Citron ClashRiskier the Better Is Rallying Cry of Day Traders Going SmallSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The upcoming inauguration of Joe Biden as president offers the U.S. a chance to reboot its relationship with China after a tumultuous four years under Donald Trump. Bob Hormats of investment firm Tiedemann Advisors, who has served in senior economic and trade policy roles under five different U.S. presidents, discusses what’s at stake. Mentioned in this podcast: A Handful of Penny Stocks Just Made Up a Fifth of U.S. VolumeSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Another week, another record high for stocks – even in the midst of political unrest. Vincent Deluard, director of global macro strategy at StoneX Group Inc., discusses the disconnect between stocks and reality, a so-called “bear market for humans,” his outlook for 2021, and the risk of inflation.Mentioned in this podcast:Stock Market Warns Workers That They’re the Problem for BusinessDay-Trader Heaven Arrives as Tesla, Bitcoin and Stock Options SurgeSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Peter Cecchini, founder and CEO of AlphaOmega Advisors, discusses the crazy year that was 2020 in markets, and gives his outlook for what’s to come. Topics include efficacy of the Federal Reserve, a boom in retail investor trading and zombie companies.Mentioned in this podcast:Day Traders Put Stamp on Market With Unprecedented Stock FrenzySustainability SPAC Queen's Gambit Growth Capital files for a $225 million IPOSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Anastasia Amoroso, head of thematic strategy at J.P. Morgan Private Bank, discuss emerging investing themes, including deploying leverage in credit-market investments. She also discusses the outlook for green energy, and other top themes her team is advising.Mentioned in this podcast:2020 Has Been a Great Year for Stocks and a Bear Market for HumansSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Danton Goei, who runs global investment strategies at Davis Funds, discusses what opportunities he's seeing around the world as the end of the coronavirus pandemic comes into sight. Yes, it’s a frothy market in the U.S., he says, but there are still opportunities in America and abroad.Mentioned in this podcast:Trading at 369% Premium, New Crypto Fund Astounds Even BullsSoaring Stock Valuations No Big Deal to Powell Next to BondsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In the wake of Covid-19, corporations this year issued trillions of dollars of debt to make it through. Now, according to Josh Lohmeier, head of North American investment-grade credit at Aviva Investors, the big question for next year is: What should and will they do with all that cash?See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The recent rotation in the equity market has made the once no-brainer decision to bet big on big tech a little more complicated. Jacqueline Remmen, senior wealth strategy associate at UBS Private Wealth Management, discusses how she’s advising clients what to expect in the next phase of the market.Mentioned in this podcast:Tesla’s S&P 500 Entry Takes Away Secret Weapon for Stock PickersThe Bull Market Rotates Away From Tech-Driven Mega-CompaniesSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Randy Dishmon doesn't care much for investment strategies based on lumping stocks into boxes with labels like growth and value. The manager of the Invesco Global Focus Fund, which has returned 46% this year and consistently ranks in the top 1% of similar funds, joins the podcast to discuss how he approaches investing and the recent rotation in equities.  Mentioned in this podcast:‘Very, Very Busy Week’ Wipes Out Traders’ Usual Holiday DoldrumsChaos in Factor Land Puts Quants on Hunt for Accidental ExposureSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Barely-there yields in the bond market have led to a search for other strategies to diversify portfolios with assets that will cushion the blow from any future drop in stocks. Peter van Dooijeweert, managing director of multi-asset solutions at Man Solutions, a division of hedge-fund firm Man Group, joined the latest episode of the “What Goes Up” podcast and talked about some possible alternatives.Mentioned in this podcast:In New 60/40 Portfolio, Riskier Hedges Are Displacing U.S. Debt|Got Lucky, Got It Right: How Newbie Stock Jocks Beat the MarketSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Promising results in a coronavirus vaccine test triggered a wild rotation in the stock market this week. Lauren Goodwin, economist and strategist at New York Life Investments, joins the latest episode of the “What Goes Up” podcast to discuss the opportunities and pitfalls for investors looking to position for a post-Covid world.Mentioned in this podcast:These Charts Show the Euphoria the Pfizer Vaccine News CreatedRotation Trade Turns to Duck-and-Cover as Coronavirus Runs AmokSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Many investors, like most Americans, have been fixated on the political drama of this year’s presidential election. But when it comes to picking stocks, Jamie Cuellar has kept his eye on the longer term. He’s the manager of the Buffalo Small Cap Fund, which has outperformed 99% of peers in 2020 as well as over the past one, three and five years, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Cuellar joins the latest episode of the “What Goes Up” podcast to discuss the election, his fund’s strategy, and why small companies are still an opportunity for active fund managers to show their value in a climate that’s more and more dominated by passive and smart-beta strategies. Bloomberg Executive Editor Chris Nagi also joins the show to discuss markets.Mentioned in this podcastForget Biden Vs. Trump: The Incumbent Is Winning in Stock Market‘Scrap That’: Traders Lose the Plot in Night of 1,000 TwistsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The velocity of money is an attempt to estimate the average number of times a dollar changes hands. It crashed to record lows during the pandemic as the savings rate surged. But it had been trending downward for more than two decades prior to that. Adrian Helfert, a fund manager at Westwood Holdings, discusses what it means for markets. He also talks about how he and investors are positioned for the upcoming election and other hot financial topics. Mentioned in this podcast:Investor Bill Gross accused of blaring 'Gilligan's Island' song on loop to torment neighborVirus Threat Overshadows Election, Earnings in Market SelloffSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The dollar has been in a slump against major currencies in the last few months, and betting on more declines has become a popular trade. Wells Fargo macro strategist Zachary Griffiths discusses how the election results could interrupt or continue the trend.Mentioned in this podcast:Robinhood’s Addictive App Made Trading a Pandemic Pastime Banks Brace for ‘Big Bang’ Switch on $80 Trillion Worth of SwapsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The shift to commission-free trading and the stay-at-home environment of 2020 helped usher a new army of day traders into the stock and equity-options markets. How will this influential cohort affect markets now that they account for a share of volume that rivals hedge funds?Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist at Charles Schwab, discusses this, the upcoming elections, and other market topics.Mentioned in this podcast:Mysterious Mega-Flows Rotate Through World’s Biggest Tech ETFDay-Trader Options Action Is Spotted Yet Again in Nasdaq SurgeSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

An antitrust report by Democratic staffers for the House of Representatives this week sent chills down the spine of investors holding shares of the major U.S. technology and internet companies that have driven the bull market. The report signals the likelihood of heightened regulatory scrutiny over these companies, especially if Democrats win the White House and both chambers of Congress in the November elections in a so-called “blue wave.” Max Gokhman, head of asset allocation at Pacific Life Fund Advisors, shares his thoughts on this and other market developments.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

A stock market that sometimes seems bulletproof in the face of adversity can make it challenging for hedge funds looking for companies to sell short in anticipation of share-price declines. Ben Axler of the activist fund Spruce Point Capital Management discusses where he’s looking for opportunities, including in special-purpose acquisition companies.Mentioned in this podcast:Blistering IPO Market Is Rekindling Dot-Com Era Froth FearsThe Tiny Activist Fund That Reaped 24% Return by Unearthing ‘Cockroaches’See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Warren Buffett has referred to the massive cash pile at his company Berkshire Hathaway Inc. as his “elephant gun,” meaning he’s always on the prowl for an opportunity to shoot large sums of money at a big acquisition or investment. While he made a few deals this year as the Covid-19 pandemic roiled markets, he hasn’t been quite as active as he was during the global financial crisis more than a decade ago.Why is that? Joining this week to discuss why is Larry Pitkowsky, co-managing partner at GoodHaven Capital Management. His GoodHaven Fund counts Berkshire Hathaway as its top holding. Pitkowsky also discusses other holdings in the fund and shares some thoughts on markets and value investing. Mentioned in this podcast:Amazon Tells Echelon Fitness to Stop Selling $500 Prime BikeCan’t-Lose Trades Falter With Inflation Expectations FlaggingSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

An explosion of trading in equity options among day-traders is suspected of helping to fuel the rally in U.S. stocks this summer. Chris Murphy, co-head of derivatives strategy at Susquehanna International Group, joins this week’s episode of the “What Goes Up” podcast to explain what happened.Mentioned in this podcast: The Wild Summer of 2020 Turned Small Investors Into WhalesReddit's Stock Threads Become a Must-Read on Wall StreetSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The selloff in high-flying technology stocks continued this week after a breathtaking rally over the previous five months. Is the bubbling bursting, or is this just a minor setback for the perennial darlings of the market? Seema Shah, chief strategist at Principal Global Investors in London, discusses this and other important issues for the stock market.Mentioned in this podcast:A Week Like This Was a Long Time Coming for Day-Trader Faithful Options Traders Whipped Up Stock Boom With SoftBank Buying​​​​​​​See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The U.S. stock market’s melt-up seems to have ended in spectacular fashion this week, and now many on Wall Street are turning their attention to the election in November as a potential source of risk. Nela Richardson, senior investment strategist at Edward Jones, shares her take on this week’s market action and what to expect in November.Mentioned in this podcast: Low Rates Lead Investors to Look Beyond the Classic 60/40 MixVolatility Markets Brace for Election Drama Like Never Before Mystery Solved: Days Like This Are What the VIX Warned AboutSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Politics has become one of the most-important drivers in markets and this year’s U.S. presidential election is shaping up to be the main focus of traders and investors in all asset classes. Naufal Sanaullah, chief macro strategist at hedge fund EIA All Weather Alpha Partners, discusses how he’s thinking about the market implications of the race.Mentioned in this podcast:Volatility Markets Brace for Election Drama Like Never BeforeNotorious B.I.G.’s Plastic Crown May Fetch $300,000 at Sotheby’sKFC Suspends `It’s Finger Lickin’ Good’ Slogan Amid PandemicSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Campbell Harvey, finance professor at Duke University and a senior adviser at Research Affiliates, is well known for his research on the yield curve as a recession indicator. While no one could have possibly predicted the cause of this recession – a global pandemic – it’s still true that an inverted yield curve once again predicted an economic downturn. Harvey joins the latest episode of “What Goes Up” to discuss what the bond market is signaling now, along with his new paper on gold.Mentioned in this podcast:Gold, the Golden Constant, COVID-19, 'Massive Passives' and Déjà VuFed Minutes Show FOMC Backs Away From September Guidance ShiftSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Robert Hormats, who has worked in senior economic and trade policy roles under five different U.S. presidents and spent 25 years at Goldman Sachs Group Inc., believes the Covid-19 pandemic has forced the government to embark on what could be considered an involuntary experiment with Modern Monetary Theory.Now a managing director at wealth-advisor Tiedemann Advisors, Hormats discusses MMT, the U.S.-China relationship, prospects for a coronavirus vaccine – and how investors should think about all of it.Mentioned in this podcast: A Beginner’s Guide to Modern Monetary TheoryMeet the Psychic That Big-Money Wall Street Traders Depend OnSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

At the benchmark level, equity levels by many measures look stretched. But Katie Koch, co-head of fundamental equity at Goldman Sachs Asset Management, says there’s plenty of areas within the stock market that offer good value for investors right now. She discusses which industries and companies she likes, including a couple that have been ravaged by the coronavirus like restaurants and retail.Mentioned in this podcast:How a Goldman Sachs Manager Is Preparing For a Post-Covid WorldSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Lee Ferridge, head of North America macro strategy for State Street Global Markets, has been bullish on gold since late 2018, when an attempt at quantitative tightening by the Federal Reserve sent markets into a tailspin. From that moment, he knew the central bank’s balance sheet would only grow larger, a boon for real assets like gold. Now, the precious metal is smashing records, beating both stocks and bonds in 2020.Mentioned in this podcast: Kodak Pivots to Drugs After Abandoning Photography, Crypto At Center of ‘Erratic’ Market Moves Is a Raging Recovery DebateSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Rob Arnott, chairman and co-founder of Research Affiliates, has spent a lot of time studying market bubbles. He shares what he’s learned, and give his takeaways about the current environment for investors.Mentioned in this podcast:Rob Arnott Says It’s Insanely Stupid to Chase Market BubblesU.S. Stock Market Bull Run In Recession Makes Investors AnxiousYes. It's a Bubble. So What?See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The killers of Berta Caceres had every reason to believe they’d get away with murder. More than 100 other environmental activists in Honduras had been killed in the previous five years, yet almost no one had been punished for the crimes. Bloomberg’s Blood River follows a four-year quest to find her killers – a twisting trail that leads into the country’s circles of power.Blood River premieres on July 27.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Based in Sydney, Australia, David Adams, the chief investment officer at Reminiscent Capital, picked up on funding market stress early on. That helped his firm’s Asia-focused macro strategy implement a multi-step trade that delivered a 16.5% return in the first quarter of 2020. He joins the latest “What Goes Up” podcast to discuss how it worked, and what markets are signaling now.Mentioned in this podcast:  Bad Breath Offers a Rare Payoff in Listerine-Royalty Stake Sale Banksy's Covid-19 WarningSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The furious rebound in the U.S. equity market over the last few months runs the risk of turning into a "melt-up," according to Wells Fargo strategist Anna Han. She explains what’s driving the surge and why it’s worrying.Mentioned in this podcast:Bleak Message of Economic Pain Underlies Tech’s Market DominanceTesla Short ShortsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The U.S. stock market headed into the Fourth of July holiday with a full head of steam after the best quarterly advance since 1998. Yet risks lie ahead this summer. Chief among them is the possibility that Congress will fail to deliver additional fiscal support for the economy as the coronavirus continues to spread, according to Jack Janasiewicz, strategist and portfolio manager at Natixis Investment Managers. Also joining the show is Bloomberg reporter Felice Maranz, who discusses the state of affairs with bank stocks and what to watch in the upcoming earnings season.Mentioned in this podcast:No One Can Agree on Where the Stock Market Will Be in Six MonthsStock Bulls Need Proof They Were Right to Go All In on RecoverySee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

It’s a perennial debate among market wonks: when will growth stocks finally stop outperforming value stocks for more than a short period? And what has driven the outperformance? Daniel Davidowitz, co-head of the large-company growth team at Polen Capital Management, offers his take. First, he says, you have to deconstruct the meanings of “growth” and “value.”Mentioned in this podcast: Is Value Dead? Debate Rages Among Quant Greats From Fama to AQRStocks’ Covid Angst Takes Violent Turn After Simmering for DaysSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This year’s volatility in markets has highlighted how investors can protect their portfolios with tail-risk hedging strategies. Meb Faber, co-founder and chief investment officer of Cambria Investment Management, joins this week to discuss the thinking behind his firm’s tail-risk ETF (ticker: TAIL), and offer his thoughts on the state of markets.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Stocks crashed back to Earth this week after a breathtakingly fast rebound from the bear market of February and March. What caused the plunge? And is the rally over?Medley Global Advisors macro strategist Ben Emons and Bloomberg’s Cameron Crise discuss the drivers of the wild week in markets and the hoards of newly minted day-traders who took advantage of the rebound on the latest episode of the “What Goes Up” podcast.Mentioned on this podcast: Hundreds of Thousands of Tiny Buyers Swarm to Insolvency StocksThe Stocks-Only-Go-Up Strategy Falls Into a $2 Trillion DitchSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

As lockdowns are eased across the country, Americans are slowly but surely getting out of their homes and engaging with the world outside again. That provides some opportunities for investors to benefit from the next group of stocks that will perform well, according to Shawn Snyder, head of investment strategy at Citigroup’s Personal Wealth Management unit. Still, some shares that did well during the lockdown represent the “future of America” and aren’t just flashes in the pan, he says.Mentioned in this podcast: The Really Big Stock Bull Case Says Fed Stimulus Doesn’t Go AwayBears Thwarted Again by Stock Market That Believes in RecoverySee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Investors across Wall Street are beginning to wonder if the risk rebound has further room to run. Fed policy is extremely stimulative, economies are reopening, and slices of the market hit hard by Covid-19 are joining in on the rally. But GMO, the famous money manager founded by Jeremy Grantham, isn’t buying it.Mentioned in this podcast: Investors Pile Into Stocks That Win in a Full Economic RecoveryU.S. Corporate Bond Sales Smash Record, Soaring Over $1 TrillionBored Day Traders Locked at Home Are Now Obsessed With OptionsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

What explains the resiliency of the U.S. stock market, despite the worst economic data in most of our lifetimes? Susan Schmidt, head of U.S. equities at Aviva Investors in Chicago, says the market is already looking ahead to next year. That doesn’t mean there won’t be some more volatility in the near term.Mentioned in this podcast: U.S. Equity Markets Stubbornly Ignore the Doom EverywhereExtreme Behavior Is on Display Everywhere in the Stock MarketBlack Swan Author Spars With Quant Legend Over Tail Risk HedgesSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

It was 10 years ago this month that the S&P 500 dropped 5% in four minutes. Now, the infamous day is known as the Flash Crash of May 6, 2010, and a decade later global markets are again facing extreme volatility – albeit in a different way. Joining the “What Goes Up” podcast this week is Liam Vaughan, the author of a new book, “Flash Crash: A Trading Savant, a Global Manhunt, and the Most Mysterious Market Crash in History,” to chronicle the historic day and how a 36-year-old day trader got caught in the middle of it all.Also on the episode is Jafar Rizvi, portfolio manager of Harding Loevner Global Small Companies & International Small Companies Funds, who helps explain how to navigate investing in global small cap firms in the wake of the coronavirus.Mentioned in this podcast:The Work-From-Home Trader Who Shook Global MarketsStock Market’s Winners Hint at Gloom Rather Than Quick ComebackSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This is a year when unthinkable events have become commonplace. That has some investors wondering if the Federal Reserve could end up making what was previously an unthinkable move: purchasing stocks. Vincent Deluard, global macro strategist for brokerage INTL FCStone, discusses.Mentioned in this podcast:With Stocks Buybacks Halted, We’ll See How Much They MatterStock Fear Gauge Falls to Nine-Week Low After Topping 2008 HighsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The U.S. Treasury is auctioning a dizzying amount of bonds to pay for the government’s economic relief efforts. Will the market be able to digest this mountain of supply? Wells Fargo Securities macro strategist Zachary Griffiths discusses.Mentioned in this podcast:Bond Traders Signal the Path to Reopening Will Be Long and Bumpy​​​​​​​Kudlow Says China Will Be ‘Held Accountable’ for CoronavirusSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

As several states take tentative steps to reopen their economies following lockdowns to slow the spread of Covid-19, the big question for investors is whether a V-shaped recovery is in store. Baird strategist Michael Antonelli discusses why he believes the economic re-openings won’t be greeted with a rally in stocks.  Mentioned in this podcast:Bad Data Is a Given for Wall Street Gaming Out Lockdown ExitWhat an Oil ETF Has to Do With Plunging Oil Prices‘They Don’t Know What to Say’: Company Earnings Add to ConfusionSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

They say every crisis is also an opportunity, and some trend-following investment strategies are proving that true by reaping strong returns amid the chaos in markets triggered by the Covid-19 pandemic. AlphaSimplex Group’s Managed Futures Strategy Fund is up more than 7% in 2020, reaping what the firm’s chief research strategist Kathryn Kaminski refers to as “crisis alpha.” Kaminski discusses how trend following works and how the firm’s strategy saw the crisis brewing in other markets before it sent equities into a tailspin.Mentioned in this podcast:Crisis or Correction? A Quant’s View of the Coronavirus Don’t Feel Too Relieved by the Bounce Back in Stocks Wall Street’s Bulls Drive Epic Market Split From Grim Reality The Average U.S. Stock Is Catching None of That Megacap MagicSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The Covid-19 virus is messing with all our heads, and that can cause investors to make some classic mistakes. Meanwhile, government stimulus efforts could lead to some skewed incentives for consumers and businesses. Edward Jones investment strategist Nela Richardson, who holds a doctorate in economics, gives her diagnosis of the role behavioral economics plays in the pandemic.Mentioned in this podcast: A Bull’s Conundrum: Rally In Stocks Is Built on Staying InsideSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

While the world agonizes over grim statistics showing the growing number of victims of the novel coronavirus, professional money managers are forced to make important decisions on behalf of clients without much hard data on the economic damage being done. Diane Jaffee, senior portfolio manager at TCW Group Inc., discusses how the upcoming earnings season will help provide some much-needed information. Some highlights of the conversation are below.Mentioned in this podcast: A Lot Is Riding on Stock Bottom Calls That Worked in a Bull MarketU.S. Jobless Claims Soar to Once-Unthinkable Record 6.65 MillionEarnings Day Blowups Seen Skyrocketing With Street Flying BlindSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Quick to fall, quick to rise -- such has been the story of the stock market. After tumbling more than 30%, this week was met with the fastest period of gains since the 1930s. But will the fierce rally last? Dan Chung, the chief executive officer of Alger, shares his thoughts and explain where the fund firm is looking for investment opportunities.Mentioned in this podcast:False Bottom or Start of Something Big: On This Rally’s StaminaExtreme Valuations, Gaping Margins and a Haven in Market StormSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Harnessing Bloomberg's reporting from every continent, Bloomberg's daily Prognosis podcast brings the news, data and analysis you need for living in the time of Covid-19. In around ten minutes, we will explain the latest developments in health and science, the impact on individuals, industries and governments and the adaptions they are making in the face of the global pandemic. Come back every weekday afternoon for a short dose of the best information about the novel coronavirus from more than 120 bureaus around the world.First episode drops Thursday, March 26. Subscribe on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or wherever you listen.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

While the bear market in stocks has been alarming, dislocations in the corporate credit markets are arguably more dangerous for the stability of the financial system and the economy. Winifred Cisar, head of credit strategy at Wells Fargo Securities, gives her thoughts on the situation.Mentioned in this podcast:Global Credit Market Turmoil Rips From Australia to U.S. MunisFed Feels Heat to Pump Out More Loans, Go Past Crisis-Era RulesSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

As if the last few weeks weren’t volatile enough, this one was even worse. Swings were so wild that exchange-rules forced trading halts – multiple times. Thursday saw the worst day for the S&P 500 since 1987’s Black Monday crash, and the record long bull market came to a close. Cracks are forming in the credit markets, and classic hedges aren’t working the way they should. Lauren Goodwin, an economist and multi-asset portfolio strategist at New York Life Investments, explains why she’s not yet buying into this dip. Also joining the podcast is Bloomberg MLIV blogger Kriti Gupta, who discusses what an oil-price war means for global economies and energy firms.Mentioned in this podcast:Bull Market Ends Like It Began: In Chaos, Without Any WarningCredit Market Stress Deepens With Companies Racing to Raise CashBear Market Signals Over 80% Chance of Recession Hitting U.S.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Spasms of volatility continued to shake financial markets this week as the novel coronavirus spread in the U.S. and Europe. When will it all end and when will it be safe to buy this epic dip in the stock market? No one knows for sure. However, Naufal Sanaullah, chief macro strategist at hedge fund EIA All Weather Alpha Partners, explains what he’s looking for as a signal the tide is turning. Also joining the show is Bloomberg reporter Luke Kawa, who discusses how volatility markets are handling the turbulence.Mentioned in this podcast: Wall Street’s Pros Fess Up: ‘We Don’t Know What’s Going On’Trump Signs $7.8 Billion Virus Bill After Infections IncreaseSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Financial markets around the world have been roiled by the spread of the novel coronavirus, and it’s unclear what if anything the Federal Reserve and other central banks can do to stop the bleeding. Kathy Jones, chief fixed income strategist at Charles Schwab Corp., joins this week’s “What Goes Up” podcast to discuss the limited impact the Fed may have. Bloomberg’s Chris Nagi also joins the discussion to discuss the historic plunge in the stock market.Mentioned in this podcast:Wall Street Seeks the Right Metaphor for the Virus MeltdownReddit’s Profane, Greedy Traders Are Shaking Up the Stock MarketSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Flows into ProShares exchange-traded funds this year show investor appetite for investments that benefit from a declining stock market as the coronavirus threatens economic growth and investor confidence. Simeon Hyman, head of investment strategy at ProShares, and Bloomberg’s Rachel Evans explain how investors are positioning themselves amid the uncertainty. Mentioned in this podcast: Riskiest ETFs Get Green Light, But Brokers Might Not Touch ThemSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

With passive and factor investing dominating the strategies of more and more investors, one would be forgiven for thinking that traditional bottoms-up stock picking is a dying art. But they’d be wrong. This week features Glenn Gawronski, who led the JPMorgan Small Cap Equity Fund to a top 1% performance in its Morningstar category before leaving to start his own investing firm called Byron Place Capital Management. Also joining the show is Bloomberg columnist John Authers, who talks about some of his recent columns about value investing and the European debt crisis. Mentioned in this podcast:A Three-Legged Stool Approach to Finding Great Stocks To Invest In Value Investing’s Time to Shine Again Is Approaching Now We Can Say Euro-Zone Crisis Is Finally OverSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

China’s intense effort to contain the deadly new coronavirus is causing major damage to the nation’s economy and sending ripples through global financial markets. But it hasn’t shaken the conviction of Barry Gill, head of investments at UBS Asset Management, who is bullish on China’s long-term prospects as the nation continues to shift to a consumer-oriented economy. Bloomberg consumer-team editor Sally Bakewell also discusses how the coronavirus is affecting U.S. companies.Mentioned in this podcast: The Lasting Toll of a Deadly VirusTesla’s 10,000% Options Surge Leaves Stock Gains in the DustSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Paranoia about the coronavirus is spreading rapidly around the world, and the reaction in financial markets has been swift. Principal Global Investors strategist Seema Shah discusses how the “velocity of risk” is much faster now than it was during the outbreak of a similar virus, severe acute respiratory syndrome or SARS, in 2003. Also joining the podcast is Bloomberg Opinion’s health-care columnist Max Nisen, who explains how the clinical trial process and the profit incentives for drugmakers mean the quick development of a coronavirus vaccine is unlikely.Mentioned in this podcast:The Market Is Trying to Put a Price on the Coronavirus OutbreakSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Déjà vu? A week dominated by headlines of a spreading respiratory virus had investors recalling pandemics past, from SARS in 2003 to the Ebola scare six years ago. To discuss what the Wuhan virus could mean for markets, Dave Lafferty, chief market strategist at Natixis Investment Managers, and Ye Xie, a contributor to Bloomberg’s Markets Live blog, join the “What Goes Up” podcast.Some highlights from Natixis’ Lafferty:"There’s always sort of two phases: there’s the knee-jerk sort of risk-off, markets go down 1 percent, 2 percent, 3 percent, something like that, and then there’s a waiting period where we find out if it’s actually a more systemic problem. By and large in history, policy makers have gotten their arms around it, market tends to rally back.""The thing that worries me is that there’s so much optimism priced in, and people are worried about valuation. But valuation, in and of itself, isn’t a catalyst. So in that vacuum, people tend to look for catalysts and maybe some type of epidemic or pandemic becomes the excuse they’ve been looking for to either profit-take or sell down assets that they think are expensive. So I don’t think it’s necessarily the thing that makes or breaks the market, but I would agree at these valuations, with the way the market has run, it does make for kind of a convenient excuse to take a little profit here."Mentioned in this podcast:‘Sharp and Short-Lived’: The Impact of Health Scares on MarketsMarkets Upset From China Virus Is Only Getting LargerExtreme Valuation Cases Wanted for a Red-Hot Rally in EquitiesSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Sometimes, it’s best to rip up the playbook, hold your nose and buy some of the worst stocks you can find. That’s the message from Jonathan Golub, chief U.S. equity strategist at Credit Suisse. He joined this week’s “What Goes Up” podcast to explain.“We like high quality portfolios, we like stocks that don’t have a lot of debt, we like stocks with growth and big global footprints,” Golub says. “But every one of those characteristics does well—or poorly—in certain situations.” Right now, the latter is the case, he contends. “Companies with deteriorating fundamentals that are heavily shorted are outperforming the market. And you wouldn’t normally think that, because those sound like they are negative characteristics.”A company is shorted because investors somewhere are betting its headed for bankruptcy, which Golub says makes sense in a weak economy. But if the economy turns around, he adds, “they’re going to actually improve more than a really healthy company. And this is really frustrating for investors with a quality bias.”Also joining the podcast is Bloomberg reporter Lananh Nguyen to discuss the takeaways from a busy week in bank earnings.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Americans are paying more and getting less for their health care than ever before. On the new season of Prognosis, reporter John Tozzi explores what went wrong. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

U.S. benchmark stock indexes climbed to record highs this week even as the U.S. and Iran appeared to be on the brink of war. The return of investment-risk appetites was attributed to what appears to be a de-escalation of tensions after Iranian missiles hit U.S. targets in Iraq without causing any casualties. So is that the end of that? Not so fast, says Jonathan Mackay, senior market strategist at Schroders. Also joining the podcast is Bloomberg journalist Vildana Hajric, who discusses her reporting on how investors are reacting to the situation.Mentioned in this podcast:How Carlos Ghosn Became the World’s Most Famous FugitiveRed Flags Emerge With Record-High Stocks Brushing Aside Political TurmoilBuy the Dip, Wait and See, Add Hedges: Investors on Iran StrikeSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

New year, new predictions. With 2020 off to the races, projections from strategists across Wall Street are now set in stone. Will market leadership change? Will a correction materialize over the next few months? What are the biggest risks? Chris Harvey, the head of equity strategy at Wells Fargo Securities, gives his view.Mentioned in this podcast: Maybe It’s Time to Start Worrying About Euphoria in U.S. StocksSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

An inverted yield curve. Fears of recession. Three rate cuts from the Federal Reserve. And a boatload of negative yielding debt. All remnants of a year to remember, when everything rallied and U.S. stocks notched one of their best in decades. Matthew Peron, chief investment officer for City National Rochdale recounts 2019’s highlights.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

It was a fabulous year to be invested in stocks or bonds. But what’s in store for 2020? Nela Richardson, an investment strategist at Edward Jones, and Bloomberg columnist Cameron Crise give their outlooks. Richardson says a lot of older clients are reluctant to make less risky investments due to the huge returns they’ve enjoyed in 2019. Meanwhile, the rally in bonds has pushed interest rates down and made the returns on fixed-income look unappealing. Mentioned in this podcast:Maybe It’s Time to Start Worrying About Euphoria in U.S. StocksU.S. Yield Curve Hits Steepest Point in Over a YearSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Multiple central bank meetings, a trade deal, a U.K. election, impeachment—all in the span of a week. To make sense of it all, Mike Schumacher, the head of rates strategy at Wells Fargo Securities, joins the podcast. Also joining the podcast is Bloomberg News Executive Editor Chris Nagi, who shares his views on the equity market.Mentioned in this podcast:Job-Crusader Powell Signals Long Policy Pause Amid Low InflationFed Aims a Half-Trillion Dollar Liquidity Hose at Year-End Risks It Took 13 Years for the Crisis to End in U.S. Financial StocksSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Veteran stock-market strategist Jeffrey Saut’s retirement lasted only three weeks. Now he’s back, to explain why all the hand-wringing about 2020 may not be necessary. Saut isn’t worried about the “longest bull market ever” coming to an end, despite fears in some quarters that the economy is near the conclusion of the business cycle. Also joining the podcast is Bloomberg Markets Live blogger Pimm Fox, who shares his views on the outlook for equities and commodities.Mentioned in this podcast:Peloton Stock Is Pummeled on Backlash From ‘Gift That Gives’ AdA 20-Carat Blue Diamond Is Sold for Almost $15 MillionSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Climate change is arguably the biggest problem facing mankind in the 21st century, and any serious effort to slow it will require further massive investments in clean energy. At investment firm GMO, portfolio manager Lucas White leads a strategy that invests in companies which stand to benefit from the transition to green energy. It not only makes sound environmental sense, White says, but it also makes economic sense.Mentioned in this podcast:Thinking Outside the Box: How and Why to Invest in a Climate Change StrategySee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

As 2020 approaches, the financial industry is busy issuing global outlooks for the new year. Recession? Trade deal? Higher or lower bond yields? Wilmington Trust Corp. threw another major risk into the mix: the continued rise of populism. Luke Tilley, chief economist at Wilmington and a former adviser with the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, weighs in. Also joining the show is Bloomberg’s Katherine Greifeld, who discusses the recent drop in bond yields and what’s arguably the most-boring foreign-exchange market since 1976.Mentioned in this podcast: Currency Doldrums Spur Complacency Risk That Could ‘Destroy Profits’Bond Market’s Fate Hangs in Balance Before Trade-War Crunch TimeSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

As U.S. benchmark stock indexes keep hitting new highs, at least one Wall Street strategist is on alert for a potential pullback by year’s end. Lori Calvasina, head of U.S. equity strategy at RBC Capital Markets, explains why she’s sticking with a year-end target of 2,950 for the S&P 500, about 5% below where it’s currently trading. Also joining the podcast is Bloomberg’s Ye Xie, who discusses the U.S. trade war with China and democracy protests in Hong Kong from the perspective of a global markets reporter.  Mentioned in this podcast:FOMO Grows as Investors Scurry to Catch Stock Market BoomU.S. Senate Readies Quick Vote on Trade Status: Hong Kong UpdatePatek Philippe Watch Sells for $31 Million in Record AuctionSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The bond market has taken a major U-turn in recent weeks, causing the ever-important 10-year Treasury yield to jump from a three-year low of less than 1.43% in September to almost 2% on Thursday. Is this a turning point for fixed income or just a correction in an overbought Treasuries market? Robert Tipp, chief investment strategist at PGIM Fixed Income, shares his thoughts. Bloomberg Executive Editor Chris Nagi also explains what the rise in yields means for a U.S. stock market that touched record highs this week.  Mentioned in this podcast:Career Risk Flashing in Fund Land as Only 29% Beat BenchmarksU.S. Rates: Low for Long, But Likely PositiveRobinhood Traders Discovered a Glitch That Gave Them ‘Infinite Leverage’​​​​​​​Correction: This post incorrectly identified Robert Tipp’s title. The post has been updated.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Negative interest rates! They’re all the rage in Europe, but could this trend come to the U.S. financial system in the foreseeable future? Lauren Goodwin, an economist and multi-asset portfolio strategist at New York Life Investment Management, explains how it could happen. Also joining the podcast is Bloomberg Opinion columnist Shira Ovide, who discusses the latest earnings reports from big tech and communications companies.Mentioned in this podcast:Another rate cut—Is the U.S. economy weakening?First Obama, Then Trump, Now They Say Warren Will Crush StocksAlphabet Is a Money-Making Mystery But It WorksThe 1963 Schwinn CatalogSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Bloomberg's Travel Genius podcast is back! After clocking another hundred-thousand miles in the sky, hosts Nikki Ekstein and Mark Ellwood have a whole new series of flight hacking, restaurant sleuthing, and hotel booking tips to inspire your own getaways—along with a who's who roster of itinerant pros ready to spill their own travel secrets. From a special episode on Disney to a master class on packing, we'll go high, low, east, west, and everywhere in between. The new season starts Nov. 6.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

If it can happen in Chile, it can happen anywhere. That’s what Bloomberg Opinion columnist John Authers wrote this week as demonstrations broke out across the South American nation, long considered one of Latin America’s most-stable democracies. He joins this week to discuss the consequences for markets and societies with similar economic systems. Also joining the podcast is Bloomberg reporter Molly Smith, who gives her take on the current state of credit markets.Mentioned in this podcast:Chile's Violence Has a Worrisome Message for the World Authers' Newsletter: When Pensions Fail, People Get AngrySee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The buzz on Wall Street this week was about the latest earnings reports from the big banks, and a Vanity Fair report on suspicious “Trump Chaos” trades in the futures market. Meanwhile, a small nation in the Caribbean still claims bragging rights as one of the world’s hottest stock markets. Breaking it all down this week are Bloomberg’s Felice Maranz and Chris Nagi. And the podcast welcomes a special guest, Jamaican commerce minister Audley Shaw, who explains how sky-high interest rates decades ago helped fuel growth in the nation’s junior stock market.Mentioned in this podcast: Credit Cards Are a ‘Bright Spot’ in Bank Earnings, Analysts Say ‘There Is Definite Hanky-Panky Going On:’ The Fantastically Profitable Mystery of the Trump Chaos Trades Welcome to Jamaica, Home of the World’s Best-Performing Stock Market Analysts Have a Few Problems With Trump ‘Chaos Trades’ ArticleSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell this week insisted that a plan to buy Treasury bills to build up excess bank reserves wasn’t the same thing as the central bank’s previous asset purchases, known as quantitative easing, or QE for short. Markets, however, reacted similarly to how they behaved during QE, with risky assets like stocks rallying and the Treasury yield curve steepening. Medley Global Advisors Macro Strategist Ben Emons and Bloomberg reporter Luke Kawa discuss the significance of the Fed’s latest move.Mentioned in this podcast:A Repeat of 2018’s Rout Is Likely Coming, Veteran Investor SaysNonsense Market Moves Have Investors ‘Exhausted’ by Trade TalksSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Officials from China are heading to Washington for trade talks next week, just as President Donald Trump battles the House of Representatives over impeachment hearings. How should investors prepare for the collision of these two stories? Kristina Hooper, chief global strategist at Invesco, joins the latest episode of the “What Goes Up” podcast to discuss. "What the impeachment threat does is it creates fatter tails -- it increases the likelihood of extreme outcomes," says Hooper. "Whether it is greater likelihood that the U.S. takes minor concessions from China and calls it a deal. Or we could see something moving in the opposite direction where the U.S. takes a very extreme, aggressive position with China."  Hooper also discusses why she recommends investors should take a look at emerging market debt. Also joining the podcast is Bloomberg Businessweek economics editor Peter Coy to break down the latest indicators and discuss his “Wealth Number” gauge of an individual’s net worth. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Stephanie Flanders, head of Bloomberg Economics, returns to bring you another season of on-the-ground insight into the forces driving global growth and jobs today. From the cosmetics maker in California grappling with Donald Trump's tariff war, to the coffee vendor in Argentina burdened by the nation's never-ending crises, Bloomberg's 130-plus economic reporters and economists around the world head into the field to tell these stories. Stephanomics will also look hard at the solutions, in the lead-up to Bloomberg’s second New Economy Forum in Beijing, where a select group of business leaders, politicians and thinkers will gather to chart a better course on trade, global governance, climate and more. Stephanomics will help lead the way for those debates not just with Bloomberg journalists but also discussion and analysis from world-renowned experts into the forces that are moving markets and reshaping the world. The new season of Stephanomics launches Oct. 3.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s decision to open a formal impeachment inquiry over President Donald Trump’s attempt to get Ukraine to dig up dirt on former Vice President Joseph Biden exploded in the news this week, sending a shudder through America’s political foundation. For investors though, it triggered a simple question: How should I trade this?Natixis Investment Managers Chief Market Strategist Dave Lafferty and Bloomberg reporter Luke Kawa join this week’s “What Goes Up’’ to break it all down.“In the near term, it doesn’t strike me as something tradeable,” said Lafferty. “We don’t know what we don’t know at this point; we don’t know what the revelations will be.” As 2020 approaches, however, “it has a lot of real market implications going into the election.”Lafferty also discusses using game theory to analyze how the impeachment proceedings may affect Trump’s trade war, and how central bank stimulus is having diminishing effects. “Super accommodative policy 10 years on now serves to undermine investor and consumer confidence, more than it does to instill it,” he said. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

A stock market trying to notch new record highs this week was thrown a great deal of curve balls. Attacks on Saudi oil facilities sent crude prices surging. The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates for a second straight time through what was seen as a “hawkish cut.’’ And short-term financing costs went – as some called it – crazy. Joining this week’s "What Goes Up” podcast to make sense of it all is Liz Ann Sonders, the chief investment strategist at Charles Schwab, and Alex Harris, who covers short-term funding markets for Bloomberg News.Mentioned in this podcast:  The Repo Market’s a Mess. (What’s the Repo Market?) ‘This Is Crazy!’: Wall Street Scurries to Protect Itself in Repo Surge Wall Street Races to Figure Out If the Quant Stock Shock Is Over Powell the ‘Artful Dodger’ Declines to Signal What Comes Next Oil Having Best Week in Eight Months as Iran Sanctions ToughenedSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

While on the surface it looked like a calm week for the stock market, there was a lot of turbulence down below. Rising interest rates caused investors to rotate out of once high-flying momentum and growth equities in favor of beaten-down value stocks.This week’s “What Goes Up” podcast breaks it all down with Ken Fisher, the author of 11 books and billionaire founder of Fisher Investments.Mentioned in this podcast: Rob Arnott Wants to Take a Victory Lap on Factor Crowding CallSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

When you think of the Periodic Table of Elements, what comes to mind? Maybe chemistry class, or flashbacks to memorizing combinations of letters and numbers. But what about markets? This week on “What Goes Up,” the team behind Bloomberg Businessweek’s latest issue joins to make the connection. Bloomberg's Joel Weber, Jeremy Keehn and Eddie van der Walt discuss elements from gold and silver to helium and gallium.Mentioned in this podcast: Bloomberg Businessweek’s The Elements See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The cost of a bacon cheeseburger. The average size of a U.S. home, and the average number of people who live in it. The number of Google searches for words like “cheap gas,” “coupons” and “Dow Jones.” Nick Colas, the co-founder of DataTrek Research, tracks all of this and more on top of a regular diet of traditional market data. Also joining the podcast is Bloomberg reporter Emily Barrett, who discusses the ferocious bond-market rally and how the Treasury is flirting with the idea of issuing 50 or 100-year bonds. Mentioned in this podcast: Mnuchin Risks Unsettling Markets With Ultra-Long Treasury Bonds Little to No Catalyst Is Needed to Push U.S. Yields Down Again In Trump’s Tweet-Speed Market, Facts Take Back Seat to HopeSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

On this new season of Prognosis, we look at the spread of infections that are resistant to antimicrobial medicines. You're probably more likely to have heard of these as superbugs. Their rise has been described as a silent tsunami of catastrophic proportions. We travel to countries on the frontline of the crisis, and explore how hospitals and doctors around the world are fighting back. Prognosis’ new season launches Sept. 5. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Near record-low, and even negative, interest rates have captivated investors around the world. But are they here to stay? Chad Morganlander and Kevin Caron, portfolio managers at Washington Crossing Advisers, discuss how imbalances between China and other major economies have helped lead to a savings glut that’s depressed rates, and how the nation’s gradual shift to a more consumer-oriented economy could unwind this dynamic.Mentioned in this podcast:China Hits Back at Trump With Higher Tariffs on Soy, Autos Powell Speaks, Trump Tweets, China Reacts, Markets Freak. RepeatHow China Trade Policies Lead to U.S. DebtSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chaos in Hong Kong. A cross-asset market shock in Argentina. And that dreaded yield-curve inversion—a fleeting drop in 10-year U.S yields below 2-year rates—goes viral by creating panic-selling in the stock market. It was quite a week. JPMorgan Chase & Co. Global Markets Strategist Gabriela Santos joins this week's podcast to make sense of it all. Also joining hosts Sarah Ponczek and Mike Regan is Bloomberg cross-asset reporter Luke Kawa, who gives his take on the market volatility of August.Mentioned in this podcast:Countdown to Catastrophe? What the Yield Curve Means for Stock Bull MarketsEquities Are on ‘Borrowed Time’ as Recession Signal Nears InversionThe Weekly Fix: Recession or Japanification. Which Is Worse?See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

On Monday, China let its currency depreciate by the most since 2015, then later in the week President Donald Trump put more pressure on the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates to weaken the U.S. dollar. Has the trade war morphed into a currency war? And what are the implications for global markets? Bloomberg's Emily Barrett fills in as co-host on this week's “What Goes Up” podcast for Sarah Ponczek, while Bloomberg’s macro strategist Cameron Crise and currencies reporter Katherine Greifeld also join the conversation.Mentioned in this podcast:U.S. Intervention Odds Rise as Yuan Plunge Fuels Trump’s FX FuryWhat Exactly Does Trump Want for the Dollar?The Fate of the World’s Largest ETF Is Tied to 11 Random MillennialsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The Federal Reserve has the stock market’s back, right? That’s what a lot of investors have come to believe. The so-called “Yellen put” (after former Fed Chair Janet Yellen) has rolled over into the “Powell put” (after current Fed Chair Jerome Powell) in trader parlance that likens central bank policy to options contracts protecting against losses in equities.But what if the Powell put doesn’t do the trick this time, and economic data and corporate earnings continue to deteriorate despite interest rate cuts? What if it isn’t enough to counteract U.S. President Donald Trump’s trade war?That’s one of the topics guest Alec Young, managing director for global markets research at FTSE Russell, explores on this week's show. Also joining the podcast is Romaine Bostick, a reporter and anchor on Bloomberg Television, to give his take on the state of play in markets, and what he’s hearing from sources on Wall Street. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The stock market is trading near record highs yet concern about a potential recession continues to linger in the air, and that’s a tough dichotomy for investors to wrap their heads around, says Shawn Snyder, head of investment strategy at Citi Personal Wealth Management. He joins the podcast to discuss how to position investments amid an uncertain outlook for the economy. Also joining the podcast is Brad Olesen, leader of Bloomberg’s U.S. stocks team, to discuss the highlights of the second-quarter earnings season. Mentioned in this podcast: S&P 500’s Earnings Miracle Is Failing to Take Hold in the Second Half Boeing Warns It May Halt 737 Output If Max Grounding Drags OnSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Second quarter earnings season has officially begun. This week, the biggest banks set the stage for what could mark the S&P 500’s first quarterly profit decline in three years. Will underwhelming results be enough to spur further gains in equities this year? Evan Brown, head of multi-asset strategy at UBS Asset Management, and Bloomberg finance reporter Lananh Nguyen, join Sarah Ponczek and guest co-host Chris Nagi this week. Also on the episode, a look at U.S. dollar policy with the possibility of intervention in the headlines. Mentioned in this podcast:Banks' Record Earnings Show Fed Is Key to Whether Fun ContinuesBofA Counters Trading Slump With Gains in Consumer BankingMnuchin Currency Remark Seen Raising Risk of FX InterventionWhite House Knows It Needs the Fed to Make a Dent in the DollarSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

With apologies to Bruce Springsteen, as the Fed prepares to cut interest rates for the first time in a decade, it looks like There Is No Alternative (again!) to U.S. equities. Is the S&P 500's rally to a fresh record a new lease on life or the last gasp before it succumbs to a corporate earnings slide? Two of Bloomberg’s finest, senior markets editor and columnist John Authers and cross-asset reporter Vildana Hajric, join Mike Regan and guest co-host Emily Barrett on this week’s What Goes Up podcast to discuss.It's a sober view from these stock market highs. Authers walks us through the signals he’s seeing in Shiller’s CAPE measure, which suggest that current valuations are "utterly, utterly dependent at this point on low interest rates." Hajric prepares us for a less-than-stellar quarterly earnings season but, as a special bonus, she catches us up with what’s going down in the world of Bitcoin billionaires, the Winklevoss twins.Mentioned in this podcast:Shiller's CAPE Reveals Dangers Lurking in Stocks: John Authers Maybe $5 Trillion Is All That Can Be Wrung From Stocks This Year Grim Earnings Forecasts Are Getting Worse by the Week in S&P 500See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The U.S. stock market’s best first half of a year since 1997 is in the books, as is a ferocious rally in Treasuries, and the second half is poised to be dominated by speculation about what the Federal Reserve will do with interest rates as cracks appear in the longest economic expansion on record. Despite the fireworks in equities and sovereign bonds, currency markets are stuck in some of the narrowest trading ranges on record. Joining the latest episode of the “What Goes Up” podcast to discuss the first half and the outlook for the rest of the year are Pimm Fox, a blogger for Bloomberg Markets Live, and Katherine Greifeld, a reporter on the bonds and foreign-exchange team. Mentioned in this podcast:Be ‘Prepared for Anything’ as Trump Slams Europe, China on FXOne Look at Passive Flows Explains the Story of Markets in 2019Trump Wants the Fed to Weaken the Dollar. Powell Says That’s Not His JobSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

All eyes are on the Group of 20 nations meeting in Japan this weekend, with investors on the edge of their seats for news of progress in trade talks between the U.S. and China. News reports suggest that expectations are low. But what are markets signaling? Mark Hackett, chief of investment research at Nationwide Funds Group, weighs in. Also joining the podcast is Bloomberg Markets Live blogger Ye Xie with insights on what China needs to get a trade deal done.Mentioned in this podcast: A Scary View on What the G-20 Means for Stocks and a Calming OneRecord highs on Fed dovishness and trade optimismBuy Low-Tops, Sell High Tops: StockX Sneaker Exchange Is Worth $1 BillionSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Simultaneous pressure from markets and President Donald Trump to lower interest rates makes Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell look like a guy whose necktie is too tight, says Julian Emanuel, chief equity and derivatives strategist at brokerage BTIG. He explains why, despite that pressure, the Fed may not cut rates in July as markets expect. Also joining the podcast is Bloomberg Opinion technology columnist Shira Ovide, who discusses how Slack Technologies Inc. has made its stock-market debut at a time when subscription-based, business-to-business software stocks are hot. Mentioned in this podcast:  Only Game in Town, U.S. Stocks Surge to Records in Yield Chase What Dangers Lurk in Tech Company Emails? Slack Poised to Join Cloud Valuations Soaring Into Thin AirFatter Neckties Will Save the EconomySee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Short-seller Ben Axler’s Spruce Point Capital Management is thriving in the age of computerized investing by going where the machines don’t. He joins this week’s conversation to share how he digs deep into proxy statements and other obscure documents to sniff out the incentive targets that influence management, and then reverse engineers the ways they’re accomplishing them. Sebastian Boyd, a Santiago, Chile-based writer for the Bloomberg Markets Live blog, also discusses the state of credit markets and what to expect from the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting.   Mentioned in this podcast:The Tiny Activist Fund That Reaped 24% Return by Unearthing ‘Cockroaches’ Short Squeeze Fuels Junk-Bond ETF Jump After Record Bearish Bets Fed Seen on Track for 2019 Rate Cut Though Call Is Close See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In the midst of a multi-front trade war, Wall Street has advised that investors shun emerging market stocks. Rob Arnott, the founder of Research Affiliates and “godfather” of smart beta investing, disagrees. It's why half of his personal portfolio now sits in developing-nation value stocks, and his firm’s models predict U.S. equities will only return half of a percentage point in real terms over the next decade. Bloomberg’s Chris Nagi, a Bloomberg markets executive editor, also joins the conversation to discuss what Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s “appropriate” comments mean for stocks. Mentioned in this podcast: ‘Do They Have Enough Ammo?’: Markets Mull Potency of a Powell Put Pioneer of Yield-Curve Recession Indicator Says Don't Relax Yet Risk-On Is Back as Rally-Hungry Bulls Set Aside Trade FearsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Investors hadn’t quite finished wrapping their heads around what the escalating trade tensions with China would mean for their portfolios when President Donald Trump lobbed another bombshell into markets: the threat of tariffs on all imports from Mexico unless the nation halts the flow of immigrants crossing the border into the U.S. Bloomberg Opinion columnist Brian Chappatta joins the “What Goes Up” podcast to discuss the market’s reaction and why, despite the threat of higher prices from tariffs, investors are betting on lower interest rates. Also joining the show is Lori Calvasina, head of U.S. equity strategy at RBC Capital Markets, who describes her firm’s deep-dive research into how trade tensions will affect companies. They went through 500 conference-call transcripts over three quarters and lived to tell about it! Mentioned in this podcast:  S&P 500 Is at Risk of a 10% Tumble as Trade Angst Deepens, RBC Says Bond Traders Start Panic Buying in New Yield OrderPimco Warns That Central Banks Can’t Rescue the Bond Market Wall Street’s Darkening Trade War Gloom Means Tossing Old AdviceSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Relations between the U.S. and China took a dangerous turn this week, according to Bloomberg Intelligence’s Gina Martin Adams: It’s now a technology war, not just a trade war. She joins co-hosts Sarah Ponczek and Mike Regan on the latest episode of the “What Goes Up” podcast. Also joining the show is Bloomberg’s Emily Barrett, a reporter on the bonds and foreign-exchange team, who talks about expectations for a low-inflation environment reflected in market pricing and what the latest Federal Reserve minutes signal for the path of interest rates. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Donald Trump’s bestseller "The Art of the Deal" is often cited by those trying to understand the president’s negotiating tactics as he escalates trade tensions with China. Ben Emons, a macro strategist at Medley Global Advisors, has been reading a different book in an attempt to understand the other side: ``The Art of War,” an ancient Chinese military strategy tome by Sun Tzu. Emons joins hosts Sarah Ponczek and Mike Regan this week to discuss the risks and opportunities in global markets as the trade war heats up. Also joining the podcast is Ye Xie, a Bloomberg Markets Live blogger, who gives his take on the situation and recommends some other literature that may illuminate China’s strategy. Mentioned in this podcast: Bonds Calling the Shots for Stocks as Rate Cuts Outweigh Trade Markets That Priced in a Trade Skirmish Now Brace for a Bruising Fight The Perils of Betting on a Quick End to U.S.-China Trade WarSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Renewed trade tensions between the U.S and China arrived in markets like a “skunk at the garden party,” according to David Joy, the chief market strategist at Ameriprise Financial who has more than 40 years of experience in investment management. He tells co-hosts Sarah Ponczek and Mike Regan how he’s expecting markets to handle this pungent new arrival on the latest episode of the “What Goes Up” podcast.  Along with that skunk, Uber Technologies arrived at the garden party of public markets this week with its long-awaited initial public offering. Kathleen Smith, co-founder of Renaissance Capital and manager of the IPO exchange-traded fund, joins the podcast to assess Uber and the rest of the money-losing herd of unicorns that may make 2019 a record year for IPO issuance.   As always, the hosts and guests finish up with a discussion of the craziest things they saw in markets this week.  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

These days about one in three bites of food you eat wouldn’t be possible without commercial bee pollination. And the economic value of insect pollination worldwide is estimated to be about $217 billion. But as important as bees have become for farming, there’s also increasing signs that bees are in trouble. In the decade-plus since the first cases of Colony Collapse Disorder were reported, bees are still dying in record numbers, and important questions remain unanswered. On this new miniseries, host Adam Allington and environment reporters David Schultz and Tiffany Stecker travel to all corners of the honeybee ecosystem from Washington, D.C., to the California almond fields, and orchards of the upper Midwest to find answers to these questions.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Campbell Harvey, finance professor at Duke University and a senior adviser at Research Affiliates, joins Sarah Ponczek and Mike Regan in this week’s episode of the “What Goes Up” podcast. He discusses his dissertation on the yield curve and what he calls the “Four Horsemen” of a recession. He’s joined by Bloomberg strategist Cameron Crise, who gives a former macro trader’s perspective on how academic research like Harvey's influences buying and selling decisions. Mentioned in this podcast:The Fourth Horseman of the Next Recession ApproachesAlice’s Adventures in Factorland: Three Blunders That Plague Factor InvestingThe Management of Political RiskSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

On the debut episode of “What Goes Up,” hosts Sarah Ponczek and Mike Regan explore what’s driving the stock market’s gains and why some bears are skeptical that the rally will be sustainable. Bloomberg executive editor Chris Nagi and cross-asset reporter Luke Kawa also join the conversation and look at how crude oil and the dollar have also been rallying, and why those gains could have huge implications for all manner of investments.  Mentioned in this podcast: All the Stuff Bears Are Saying to Spoil the S&P 500 Record PartyRed-Hot Nasdaq Run Is the Triumph of a Few Stocks Over the ManyKing Dollar Defies the Doubters as the U.S. Provides Investors an ‘Oasis’Oil Market Confounded Again as Trump Surprises on Iran SanctionsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

On this new show from Bloomberg, hosts Mike Regan and Sarah Ponczek are joined each week by expert guests to discuss the main themes influencing global markets. They explore everything from stocks to bonds to currencies and commodities, and how each asset class affects trading in the others. Whether you’re a financial professional or just a curious retirement saver, What Goes Up keeps you apprised of the latest buzz on Wall Street and what the wildest movements in markets will mean for your investments.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.