Wiser than bookies, pollsters & Paul the octopus?

Yesterday, 28 October 2019, the EU agreed to a Brexit flextension to 31 January 2020. Who correctly predicted the turn of events - and how did they form those views and gather their insights?

 

On 16 October, we recorded this episode to look at predictions and forecasts about the way Brexit events might unfold - ahead of the 31 October withdrawal deadline.

 

So who got it right? Which method gazed accurately into the future? 

 

Using Brexit as a case study, this episode discusses different prediction and forecast methods - polling, betting, the wisdom of the crowds and academic research.

 

Host Tiernan Douieb is joined by an expert line-up of YouGov’s Chris Curtis, University of London’s Professor Chris Hanretty and Nesta’s Aleks Berditchevskaia. They weigh up experimental techniques, explore the merits of traditional prediction methods and discuss how we can predict and forecast in turbulent times. 

We also hear from Sarbjit Bakhshi at Smarkets. He gives a snapshot into how betting and betting exchange activity can show the ebbs and flows of public opinion.

 

Useful links featured in this episode:

goodjudgment.com/nesta 

 

Get in touch with Future Curious: futurecurious@nesta.org.uk

 

Or via twitter @Nesta_UK / #futurecurious

 

Future Curious is presented by Tiernan Douieb and produced and published by Nesta’s communication team. Recorded and edited at Wardour Studios. Original music by Ged Flood.