2151 - Fantasy Questions of the National League West
Fantasy Baseball Live – November 26, 2023 @ 3 pm
Segment 1 - News and Notes
1.The Diamondbacks acquired Eugenio Suarez for RHP Carlos Vargas and Catcher Seby Zavala
a.Suarez brings a 30% K-Rate but has always hit for power. He had back-to-back 31 home run seasons, and then last year, he hit 22. In looking at the data, the exit velos are the same, the launch angle is the same, the K-Rate is the same, and the walk rate is the same. You got it…everything is the same. He’s dropped to the 24th third baseman off the board. If you think he can return to 30 home runs, does this give him some value here? Especially if you need power late in the draft.
b.Carlos Vargas has a great arm with a fastball that will touch triple-digits, but he has no idea where the ball is going. He’s likely a bullpen arm. Seby Zavala came through the White Sox organization and strikes out too much. Not sure he’s more than a backup catcher. Thoughts on both players?
2.The Cardinals sign two pitchers. Kyle Gibson and Lance Lynn. Both were okay last year with the Orioles and White Sox/Dodgers. Lynn’s ADP is 353, and Gibson is 564. Any interest?
a.Does this move the needle for the Cardinals?
3.We both got excited about the trade that brought Brandon Shewmake to the White Sox. Maybe he would get a shot. What do the White Sox do? Sign Paul DeJong.
a.He has one of the worse baseballsavant pages I’ve seen. 2% rank in exit velo. 15% in hard-hit rate, 5% in whiff, 10% in walks, 37th percentile in speed. It looks like he has good range at short with a poor arm.
b.He’s only been drafted in four out of the 44 Drafts at the NFBC so far. Maybe that goes up?
c.This doesn’t appear to be a profile of a Major League full-time regular. Maybe a utility player. What am I missing?
Segment 2 – Fantasy Questions of the NL West
1.Arizona Diamondbacks
a.Alek Thomas is currently living off his great defensive chops. Huge range in center field. He’s also a plus runner, ranking in the 87th percentile. There is some solid exit velo, but he beats everything on the ground. He’s the 80th outfielder off the board – a number-five outfielder. Is this a growth stock, or would you take a bet on someone else as your fifth outfielder?
b.What about Jake McCarthy? There’s plus speed but no power. He also beats everything on the ground? Thoughts on McCarthy? Is he a guy you’re interested in? His ADP is 490, or the 94th outfielder off the board?
i.Can you be a Championship level team with this level of power in centerfield and right?
c.Brandon Pfaadt looked great on the biggest stage, and his ADP climbed a little. He’s still going as the 87th pitcher off the board – likely the 60th or so starter off the board. Is there value as your fifth pitcher?
i.Stat line: IP, wins, Ks, and ERA
d.The Diamondbacks won 84 games last season. Does the win total go up or down next season?
e.Give me a sleeper in the organization (Minor and/or Major)
2.Colorado Rockies
a.Nolan Jones went 20-20 with a .297 average. He’s going as the 15th outfielder off the board – pick #58. How many teams of yours will he be on? We will look at other outfielders around the same area.
i.Notes: Jones had a .401 BABIP and struck out 30% of the time. There is serious pop with an exit velocity of 90 MPH with a max of 115. There’s not a ton of launch.
b.Stat line of Ezequiel Tovar – HR, SB, RBI, and BA
c.Hunter Goodman (#624) or Brenton Doyle (#541)?
d.You have to hold your nose and pick a Rockies starter. Who’s it going to be?
e.Give me a sleeper in the organization (Minor and/or Major)
3.Los Angeles Dodgers
a.Gavin Lux stat line: AB, HR, SB and BA
b.Are the Dodgers going to battle with Chris Taylor (#429), Gavin Lux, Michael Busch (#546), and Miguel Rojas (#726) hitting at the bottom of the order? We will discuss each (not Lux) and whether they are worth drafting.
c.Walker Buhler’s stat line: IP, wins, K’s, and ERA
d.Bobby Miller is going as the #36 pitcher off the board in early NFBC Drafts. That’s a #2 starter when you factor in closers. Too high, too low, or just about right?
e.Give me a sleeper in the organization (Minor and/or Major)
4.San Diego Padres
a.Luis Campusano – AB, HR, RBI, and BA
b.Manny Machado is going as the #7 third baseman off the board. He’s been passed by Gunnar Henderson and Royce Lewis. Solid value in the fifth round, or would you pass him over?
c.Yu Darvish had a tough season, pitching to a 4.56 ERA and ending the season on the IL after having bone spurs removed from his pitching elbow. He’s fallen to the 15/16 round in 15-team drafts. Any interest?
d.2024 will mark AJ Preller’s 10th year on the job. He went in big when he first arrived. He quickly sold off almost everyone he traded for when it didn't work. He then drafted and signed high-end Latin player for a few years in what looked like a rebuild. Then, he traded away those prospects for veterans while signing high-priced free agents (Hosmer, Machado, Xander, et. al). They’ve made the playoffs twice and even got to the NLCS in 2022. However, he’s spent a fortune and needs to sell off pieces so the Padres can make payroll. How has he kept his job?
e.Give me a sleeper in the organization (Minor and/or Major)
5.San Francisco Giants
a.Marco Luciano: Stat line for 2024 – AB, HR, RBI, and BA
b.Michael Conforto’s bat speed has slowed. He used to light up statcast with his exit velos and hard-hit rates. Now, it’s below average – in the 40s for both, with an average launch angle. He’s not that old – he turns 31 in March. Could we see a bounce back in 2024, or is he just a 15- to 18-year-old home run guy with some OBP skills now?
c.Kyle Harrison: Stat line for 2024 – IP, wins, Ks, and ERA
d.Give me a sleeper in the organization (Minor and/or Major)
Close
Segment 1 - News and Notes
1.The Diamondbacks acquired Eugenio Suarez for RHP Carlos Vargas and Catcher Seby Zavala
a.Suarez brings a 30% K-Rate but has always hit for power. He had back-to-back 31 home run seasons, and then last year, he hit 22. In looking at the data, the exit velos are the same, the launch angle is the same, the K-Rate is the same, and the walk rate is the same. You got it…everything is the same. He’s dropped to the 24th third baseman off the board. If you think he can return to 30 home runs, does this give him some value here? Especially if you need power late in the draft.
b.Carlos Vargas has a great arm with a fastball that will touch triple-digits, but he has no idea where the ball is going. He’s likely a bullpen arm. Seby Zavala came through the White Sox organization and strikes out too much. Not sure he’s more than a backup catcher. Thoughts on both players?
2.The Cardinals sign two pitchers. Kyle Gibson and Lance Lynn. Both were okay last year with the Orioles and White Sox/Dodgers. Lynn’s ADP is 353, and Gibson is 564. Any interest?
a.Does this move the needle for the Cardinals?
3.We both got excited about the trade that brought Brandon Shewmake to the White Sox. Maybe he would get a shot. What do the White Sox do? Sign Paul DeJong.
a.He has one of the worse baseballsavant pages I’ve seen. 2% rank in exit velo. 15% in hard-hit rate, 5% in whiff, 10% in walks, 37th percentile in speed. It looks like he has good range at short with a poor arm.
b.He’s only been drafted in four out of the 44 Drafts at the NFBC so far. Maybe that goes up?
c.This doesn’t appear to be a profile of a Major League full-time regular. Maybe a utility player. What am I missing?
Segment 2 – Fantasy Questions of the NL West
1.Arizona Diamondbacks
a.Alek Thomas is currently living off his great defensive chops. Huge range in center field. He’s also a plus runner, ranking in the 87th percentile. There is some solid exit velo, but he beats everything on the ground. He’s the 80th outfielder off the board – a number-five outfielder. Is this a growth stock, or would you take a bet on someone else as your fifth outfielder?
b.What about Jake McCarthy? There’s plus speed but no power. He also beats everything on the ground? Thoughts on McCarthy? Is he a guy you’re interested in? His ADP is 490, or the 94th outfielder off the board?
i.Can you be a Championship level team with this level of power in centerfield and right?
c.Brandon Pfaadt looked great on the biggest stage, and his ADP climbed a little. He’s still going as the 87th pitcher off the board – likely the 60th or so starter off the board. Is there value as your fifth pitcher?
i.Stat line: IP, wins, Ks, and ERA
d.The Diamondbacks won 84 games last season. Does the win total go up or down next season?
e.Give me a sleeper in the organization (Minor and/or Major)
2.Colorado Rockies
a.Nolan Jones went 20-20 with a .297 average. He’s going as the 15th outfielder off the board – pick #58. How many teams of yours will he be on? We will look at other outfielders around the same area.
i.Notes: Jones had a .401 BABIP and struck out 30% of the time. There is serious pop with an exit velocity of 90 MPH with a max of 115. There’s not a ton of launch.
b.Stat line of Ezequiel Tovar – HR, SB, RBI, and BA
c.Hunter Goodman (#624) or Brenton Doyle (#541)?
d.You have to hold your nose and pick a Rockies starter. Who’s it going to be?
e.Give me a sleeper in the organization (Minor and/or Major)
3.Los Angeles Dodgers
a.Gavin Lux stat line: AB, HR, SB and BA
b.Are the Dodgers going to battle with Chris Taylor (#429), Gavin Lux, Michael Busch (#546), and Miguel Rojas (#726) hitting at the bottom of the order? We will discuss each (not Lux) and whether they are worth drafting.
c.Walker Buhler’s stat line: IP, wins, K’s, and ERA
d.Bobby Miller is going as the #36 pitcher off the board in early NFBC Drafts. That’s a #2 starter when you factor in closers. Too high, too low, or just about right?
e.Give me a sleeper in the organization (Minor and/or Major)
4.San Diego Padres
a.Luis Campusano – AB, HR, RBI, and BA
b.Manny Machado is going as the #7 third baseman off the board. He’s been passed by Gunnar Henderson and Royce Lewis. Solid value in the fifth round, or would you pass him over?
c.Yu Darvish had a tough season, pitching to a 4.56 ERA and ending the season on the IL after having bone spurs removed from his pitching elbow. He’s fallen to the 15/16 round in 15-team drafts. Any interest?
d.2024 will mark AJ Preller’s 10th year on the job. He went in big when he first arrived. He quickly sold off almost everyone he traded for when it didn't work. He then drafted and signed high-end Latin player for a few years in what looked like a rebuild. Then, he traded away those prospects for veterans while signing high-priced free agents (Hosmer, Machado, Xander, et. al). They’ve made the playoffs twice and even got to the NLCS in 2022. However, he’s spent a fortune and needs to sell off pieces so the Padres can make payroll. How has he kept his job?
e.Give me a sleeper in the organization (Minor and/or Major)
5.San Francisco Giants
a.Marco Luciano: Stat line for 2024 – AB, HR, RBI, and BA
b.Michael Conforto’s bat speed has slowed. He used to light up statcast with his exit velos and hard-hit rates. Now, it’s below average – in the 40s for both, with an average launch angle. He’s not that old – he turns 31 in March. Could we see a bounce back in 2024, or is he just a 15- to 18-year-old home run guy with some OBP skills now?
c.Kyle Harrison: Stat line for 2024 – IP, wins, Ks, and ERA
d.Give me a sleeper in the organization (Minor and/or Major)
Close
