Can You Predict an Election?

This week is all about predictions, polling and risk taking - what do current polls tell us about who might win the 2024 presidential race? We get a behind the scenes look at how statisticians make their predictions, and how accurate they are. Our guest Nate Silver developed a forecasting system which correctly predicted the outcome of the presidential election in 49 out of 50 states in 2008, and all 50 states in 2012. He also talks to Marianna and Sarah about his new book on risk - On the Edge - and his journey from professional poker playing to politics.

HOSTS: Sarah Smith, BBC North America Editor Marianna Spring, BBC Disinformation & Social Media Correspondent

GUEST: Nate Silver, U.S. election forecaster and stastician. Founder of FiveThirtyEight and the Silver bulletin, and author of On The Edge.

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This episode was made by Keiligh Baker with Purvee Pattni, Catherine Fusillo and Claire Betzer . The technical producer was Mike Regaard. The series producer is Purvee Pattni. The senior news editor is Sam Bonham.

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