606. How to Predict the Presidency

Are betting markets more accurate than polls? What kind of chaos would a second Trump term bring? And is U.S. democracy really in danger, or just “sputtering on”? (Part two of a two-part series.)

 

SOURCES:Eric Posner, professor of law at the University of Chicago Law School.Koleman Strumpf, professor of economics at Wake Forest University.

 

RESOURCES:"A Trump Dictatorship Won’t Happen," by Eric Posner (Project Syndicate, 2023).The Demagogue's Playbook: The Battle for American Democracy from the Founders to Trump, by Eric Posner (2020)."The Long History of Political Betting Markets: An International Perspective," by Paul W. Rhode and Koleman Strumpf (The Oxford Handbook of the Economics of Gambling, 2013)."Manipulating Political Stock Markets: A Field Experiment and a Century of Observational Data," by Paul W. Rhode and Koleman S. Strumpf (Working Paper, 2007)."Historical Presidential Betting Markets," by Paul W. Rhode and Koleman S. Strumpf (Journal of Economic Perspectives, 2004).

 

EXTRAS:"Has the U.S. Presidency Become a Dictatorship? (Update)," by Freakonomics Radio (2024).“Does the President Matter as Much as You Think?” by Freakonomics Radio (2020)."How Much Does the President Really Matter?" by Freakonomics Radio (2010).